Super 12 Wk 5

[Anders]

Game One) Hurricanes v Cats, Cake Tin
'canes -19.5

Still not sold on the 'canes despite them running roughshod over the Sharks. Hell, everyone's beaten the Sharks so far. The 'canes other win came on the road v the Bulls and they've been thumped at home by the Blues and away by the Stormers.
So 'canes are 2-2 SU and ATS. Cats are 1-3 SU; having beaten the Bulls first up before being thumped in all 3 away matches by the Shakrs, Highanders and Waratahs, They're 1-2-1 ATS as their last minute try against the Waratahs last weekend got them a push.
Prop Tony Penn and loose forward Campbell Feather were injury concerns for the 'canes but should play while Christian Cullen has been nursing a shoulder injury and Jonah Lomu bothered by migraines.
Cats have named the same side that lost 44-21 to the Waratahs but remember that side wasn't anything like the team coach Frans Ludeke originally named.
The pick-and-go from the 'canes forwards last weekend was much better and the key to their win. But Bob Dwyer said the Cats were very physical v the Waratahs, did well at lineout time and had slightly more possession overall.
They have defensive weaknesses that the 'canes can exploit thru the likes of Tana Umaga and Pita Alatini but at least they can score tries too - they were last to score against both the Highlanders and Waratahs and the possibility of a backdoor cover looms at this number.

NO PLAY

Game Two) Bulls v Highlanders, Pretoria
Bulls +18.5

The Highlanders 21-20 heart-stopper over the Stormers last weekend at Newlands was their first away win in seven matches. Now they have to head to the high veld to take on a Bulls team with some confidence at last after pushing the Brumbies much closer than anyone expected.
The Highlanders are likely to stop All Black prop Carl Hoeft for the first time this season afterhe played the second half v the Stormers.
The Bulls conceded some awful tries v the Brumbies; missing tackles from first-phase play regularly. But again they showed some attacking spirit with their new line-up often embrassing the usually water-tight ACT defence.
Yes, the Highlanders should win and have far more class than the hosts. But 18.5 points is a lot to cover at altitude - Highlanders flew from sea-level Durban on Thursday - against a side that is playing it's fourth consecutive home match.
Again, a backdoor cover is quite possible and the value here is with the Bulls against the 4-0 ATS visitors.

PLAY BULLS +18.5

 

[jotster]

enjoying your info anders
6-2 so far super 12s
im going with the hurricans,got em at -15 earlier in the week, hopefully their backline will produce at home
good luck

 

[Anders]

Game Three) Blues v Chiefs, Eden Park
Blues -10.5

Both teams had a bye last weekend but the break seems to have done the home team better than the Chiefs. The visitors will still be without a vital cog in skipper and No8 Deon Muir, who hasn't recovered from a hamstring injury in Rd One. His replacement Scott Couch hasn't played much rugby this season and is a Super 12 rookie while Jonno Gibbes is also out, which has seen lock Kristian Ormsby switch to No6.
The Blues though have got a numbered of injured players back - halfback Mark Robinson, openside flanker Justin Collins and lock Vula Maimuri among them so are very close to a first-choice XV.
Carlos Spencer has been switched to fullback with James Arlidge starting at first-five with Mils Muliaina on the wing.
The Blues were seen as superstars after the rd one drubbing of the 'canes but have lost the last two and are 1-2 SU and ATS. However, don't forget that the two defeats were away to the Crusaders and Reds and this will be the first time in the campaign the Blues are at home.
The Chiefs have dangerous backs in Roger Randle and Todd Miller and are dangerous dogs but they should really struggle up front where Michael Collins, Keven Mealamu and Deacon Manu are over-matched at scrum time v a Blues team that can start Christian Califano on the bench.

PLAY BLUES -10.5

Game Four) Waratahs v Sharks, Sydney
Waratahs -21.5

Going to pass here. Waratahs looked very good for 60 mins v the Cats but faded late and admitted afterwards they felt the effects of a tough physical battle first-up back from SA. Sharks are struggling to field a fully fit side after three tough matches on tour with no success. Hard to believe still that last year's finalists are 4-0 SU and ATS while the Waratahs are 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS. They seem to have lost all confidence and shape. But 20 points is a lot to cover and both teams are due a change in form.

NO PLAY

Game Five) Stormers v Brumbies, Newlands
Stormers +8.5

Never feel comfortable playing against the Brumbies but I think there's value here.
The Stormers have played their first 4 matches in the republic; going 2-2 SU and 2-2 ATS. They've lost 2 home games by a point (Waratahs and Highlanders). Now they face a Brumbies side that conceded 35 pts to the Bulls last week.
Certainly the Brumbies won't concede that many again. But the Stormers defence is good too and this should be a tight battle. The Stormers know another home loss ends their season and in front of 40,000 screaming fans at Newlands they are the play getting points against a Brumbies side which is surprisingly unchanged after playing at altitude last weekend.

PLAY STORMERS +8.5

GLTA

 

[Cartman88]

Just one Super 12 play for me this weekend and again it is good to see Anders on the same side:

Blues -10.5 vs Chiefs (1 unit)