Game Four) Waratahs v Highlanders, SFS
Waratahs -5.5/7.5
The Waratahs love being at home and will fancy their chances against a team who are also regarded as a far better "home side". The Highlanders have never won in Sydney but have been close in their last 3 attempts _ the Waratahs won 29-25 in 1996, 23-22 in 1998 and 22-15 in 2000.
Mat Rogers is hoping to start at fullback despite spraining an ankle mid-week while Patricio Noriega starts ahead of Teletubby Dunning while Craig Newby starts in place of young tyro Sam Harding at No7 for the visitors.
I think Laurie Mains' side has a real shot at winning SU here so will play them as the dog. He was able to get the best out of the Cats on the road and the Highlanders are 3-0 ATS away this season (Crusaders, Stormers, Bulls).
The Waratahs face a tough run home, against defending champions the Brumbies, Hurricanes, Reds and Crusaders and while they've been impressive to date I think that's had a lot to do with the schedule.
Their were signs things had the potential to fall apart in their mistake-riddled loss to the Blues and I believe their pack may struggle to achieve dominance ove the well-drilled Higlanders unit.
Goalkicking may decide the winner _ neither Burke or Brown have been great this season and if someone hits over 70% that could be the difference.
In a tight one I'll back the side with the better pack and a points start.
PLAY HIGHLANDERS +7.5
Game Five) Sharks v Chiefs, Durban
Sharks -2.5/3.5
Preview courtesy Waikato Times:
Roger Randle is the scoring weapon the Chiefs will again look to in their Super 12 rugby match against the Sharks in Durban, South Africa, tomorrow morning (NZ time).
But they have also devised a defence to try to combat the Sharks' new-found flat-passing and running game to try to minimise the number of points leaked at the other end of the field.
Randle is not only in peak try-scoring mode on the right wing, having scored eight touchdowns from six games to date to add to his previous 19 in Super 12, but he also makes a habit of scoring against the Sharks.
He has five tries from three matches for the Chiefs against the Sharks, including two on the Chiefs' last visit to Kings Park in Durban two years ago when they won 44-31 and one last year when they lost 24-8 at Taupo.
Roger Randle has been outstanding for us this year and is going looking for work in the forwards as well, which is a new innovation for him _ doing the pick and goes and just getting involved wherever he can, Chiefs coach Kevin Greene said from the team's hotel in Durban today.
A guy with his talent is a hell of a lot more effective when he does that.
Greene has been encouraging his wings to stay wide on the open side and the inside backs to get the ball to them, but on the blind side they have been told to get involved with the forwards.
"Roger's got a real edge to his play which is exciting because he's got huge ability with strength and pace and he is as good a winger as there is in the competition at the moment."
But the Sharks also have a talented try-scoring wing in the form of Stefan Terblanche, who had scored only four tries less than Randle coming into this season and likes playing against the Chiefs, having scored four of the Sharks' seven tries during their 52-18 demolition of the Chiefs four years ago and was also on the score sheet again last year.
The former Springbok wing has scored only four tries so far this year but his team had lost every game until last weekend against the Blues when, under new coach Kevin Putt, it had a win and not surprisingly Terblanche was one of the Sharks' three try scorers.
They play very flat and Putty has been quite open in the media here about how he wants to run the ball from everywhere so I think we have to be quite sharp in defence tomorrow, Greene said.
"We've got to get up and cut down their time and space. The Blues gave them a bit of space and they are the sort of team that if they break the (first) line they are very difficult to shut down."
He said the Cats had made it a bit easier for his team's defence last week by playing a lot deeper on attack than the Sharks do.
Skipper and No8 Deon Muir has recovered from the rib injury he sustained against the Cats and will be back tomorrow (1am NZ time), leading from the front, while consistently hard-working lock Keith Robinson has also got over a knock that was troubling him.
Goal-kicking will also be crucial with David Hill having replaced Glen Jackson, who last week kicked seven out of seven.
A trip to Kings Park (or ABSA Stadium as it is now known), where 35,000 are expected to attend tomorrow, for the team to check out the playing surface and other facilities also enabled Hill, Jackson and fullback Bruce Reihana to practise their kicking there today.
They all kicked around 80 per cent so hopefully that will flow on but you never know, Greene said.
In the first two years of the Super 12 Natal easily accounted for the Chiefs but over the last four seasons when the South Africans have moved to regional franchises along the lines of New Zealand and the Sharks were formed they have shared the matches 2-2 with the Chiefs.
Sharks: Thinus Delport, Stefan Terblanche, Deon Kayser, Ricardo Loubscher, Rudi Keil, Gaffie du Toit, Craig Davidson, Shaun Sowerby, Charl van Rensburg, Albert van den Berg, AJ Venter, Warren Britz, Deon Carstens, John Smit (c), Ollie le Roux. Res: Justin Swart, Herkie Kruger, Chad Alcock, Wayne van Heerden, Brad Macleod-Henderson, Etienne Fynn, Johan van Wyk.
Chiefs: Bruce Reihana, Roger Randle, Keith Lowen, Karl TeNana, Mark Ranby, David Hill, Rhys Duggan, Deon Muir (c), Marty Holah, Keith Robinson, Royce Willis, Chresten Davis, Deacon Manu, Keven Mealamu, David Briggs. Res: Nick Collins, Glen Jackson, Danny Lee, Scott Couch, Kristian Ormsby, Michael Collins, Guy Coleman.
Referee: George Ayoub (Australia).
My take: Very hard for any team to win both matches on the road in SA if one game ain't against the Bulls. Sharks are very close to being back to full strength for the first time this year and are horrendously hard to roll at home. The Chiefs are bruised and battered after their win over the Cats and their pack will be out-sized by the Sharks. Not that sold on Muir's fitness either, although he's a tough cookie.
PLAY SHARKS -2.5
(Both plays 1 unit)
GLTA
