Super 12 Wk Six

[Anders]

Quickly before the books close; we want to have a Good Friday too...

Game One) Blues v Waratahs, Nth Harbour Stadium
Blues -2.5

First real test for the Waratahs this season and I think they may come unstuck. I have been nicely impressed by them so far; a well-drilled side with a very smooth backline. But they ain't beaten much - the Chiefs were dreadful first up (and haven't improved a great deal) and then they've dealt to the Sth African rabble.
I think the Blues will really test out the NSW weakness in the front five with lock Jono West out suspended. The Blues have a big yet mobile pack and should have an edge at scrum and lineout time.
The Blues were a little rusty off the bye last wkend v the Chiefs but still should have covered comfortably. Up 34-16 midway thru the 2nd half they had a 4 on 2 overlap and were about to kickstart a cricket score when a stray pass saw the Chiefs eventually score at the other end.
Carlos Spencer was brilliant at fullback, picking his defenders (forwards) to run at and pass and James Arlidge is a fine young first-five who kicks well. Matua Parkinson is back at openside flanker in place of Justin Collins, who missed some first up tackles last rd and Parkinson will add extra value in snaffling loose and ruck baul.
Having beaten the' canes and the Chiefs and lost away to the Crusaders and Reds, the home side are good value at this line.

PLAY BLUES -2.5 (2 units)

 

[hoss]

My plays for this week:

Blues v Waratahs: 1pt Waratahs +3 10/11 Sporting Odds

Sorry to disagree, but I had NSW as slight favs for this game so i'll take the start. I probably overrate the Waratahs + they have dropped each week in my figures, but we'll risk a small bet here.

Hurricanes v Reds: 3 pts Reds -2 9/10 Paddy Power

One firm here bet this game off scratch but are minimum doubles
! the Hurricanes look the weakest of the NZ teams, wins over poor SA sides don't count for much.

Highlanders v Chiefs: 4pts Highlanders -10 Bet365 10/11

Best bet of the week for me - I had the game -18 + if you take the view that the Chiefs were lucky to get as close as they did last week this only gives more confidence as the Highlanders are better than the Blues IMHO.

Crusaders v Brumbies: No bet

So far 6/2 +12.17pts
GLTA
Hoss

 

[Cartman88]

Agree with Anders here and think the Blues are a nice play at home. NSW have looked good until now but tonight will be their biggest challenge.

Playing:

Blues -2 @ $1.90 with Canbet (1.5 units)

 

[Cartman88]

By the way I thought that all Aussie books by law were unable to accept wagers on Good Friday but it is infact a Northern Territory Government legislation.

Books such as Canbet and Sportodds are still open for business.

 

[jotster]

im with you hoss with all your pics
waratahs
reds
highlanders
but ill also put a small one on the brumbies

6-4 so far for season

good luck
jotster

 

[PAWAQATSI]

Mines not open!!!

DOHHHH!!!!!

WTF? :shrug:

 

[hoss]

Apologies to those of you who were on the Blues - that was daylight robbery! A breakaway try + a forward pass to scrap inside the Hcap by 1 :shrug: Will have to reconsider my Waratahs rating I think! Better to be lucky than good as someone else says.

Question for Kiwi's - how bad is weather going to be for the Highlanders match? + do you think playing away from Dunedin will make any difference? I've already lumped on -10 + am now getting slightly brown trousers

Cheers Hoss

 

[Anders]

Hoss - from the sports wire..

RUGBY-SUPER-HIGHLANDERS-D/L
HIGHLANDER EYES TURNED TO THE INVERCARGILL SKY
Invercargill, March 30 NZPA - The Highlanders will have their eyes on the skies ahead of tonight's Super 12 rugby encounter against the Chiefs in Invercargill.
Strong winds and rain buffeted the city yesterday and more of the same was expected before tonight's 7.30pm kick off.
Highlanders coach Laurie Mains said his team would look to play a more conservative style if the weather conditions were less than favourable.
The Highlanders were yet to play a game in slippery conditions this season, although Mains said the team had trained in the wet.
The special gloves being tested by some of the Highlanders players, which are designed to improve ball handling in the wet, could get their first serious test of the season.
So will the respective fullbacks, Bruce Reihana for the Chiefs and Willie Walker for the Highlanders.
It will also mean a subtle adjustment to Mains' team, with loose forwards Craig Newby and Paul Miller bracketed in the reserves. If it is wet, Miller will be included in the 22-man squad.
While the Chiefs were yet to win a game this season, Mains said his team would not be taking the Waikato-based outfit lightly, especially after last year's 50-19 loss.
Despite the windy conditions, Highlanders management were clearly impressed with the revamped facilities at Rugby Park.
A $700,000 lighting system, similar to the one at Carisbrook, will used for the first time.
A win and a bonus point for the Highlanders could see them take an early lead in the Super 12, but only if both the Waratahs and Brumbies fall over this weekend.
Points are all important for the southerners, who have yet to sit out their bye round.

 

[Anders]

My thoughts 4 Hoss...

sit tight. Conservative doesn't mean they won't cover. If it is a forward battle the Highlanders are better drilled, have more strength in depth and should be the better scrummaging and lineout side.
Think playing in Invercargill gives the Chiefs a slightly better chance of covering the number than if they were at the House of Pain...
likely to be a pass for me but would be no surprise if the Highlanders win well..

GL, u r going great guns

 

[hoss]

Cheers Anders! Just got to worry about waking up in time to watch it now!

Hoss

PS Gloves :shrug: !!

 

[jotster]

with the bad weather for the highlanders game, i might make a play on the under 54.5 due to the bad ball control

lucky to get the win last night with the waratahs, but a win is a win. was surprised how waratahs couldnt convert possession and teritory to points, and the second half they were a different team, with losts of dropped ball and bad defence, blues picked it up in the second and were unlucky to cover

any how good luck boys!
jotster

 

[hoss]

No good this week - apologies if anyone followed!

1/2 this week 7/3 on season +6.6pts

must do better....

Hoss