Super Bowl Thread

[Smitty]

OMG, I said "Super Bowl". I hope the NFL doesn't sue me. :scared

Alrighty, figured I'd get this started with the side and total, and I assume I'll be adding some props over the next few days.

Playoffs Record
Sides 6-2 +19.3
ML 2-3 +2.7
Totals 13-10 +18.1
Props 5-5 -2.5

KC (ML) 4 to win 4.2
Over (50.5) 2.3 to win 2
KC TT over (24.5) 4.2 to win 4. As usual, I'm not betting on a team, I'm betting AGAINST a team. KC is... KC. Good offense, mediocre defense, head coach who has no clue when it comes to clock management. I'd rather not bet on them. But I have to bet against this Eagles team. I'll try not to rehash too much of what I've covered the last few weeks.

1) Absolute weakest schedule in the NFL.

2) During the season, the Eagles played 7 games against offenses in the top half of the league (DVOA ratings). Here's how many points they allowed in those games:

35 (Det)
21 (Jax)
17 (Cooper Rush)
33 (GB)
22 (NYG at full strength)
40 (Dallas)
16 (NYG's JV team)

I'm going to take some liberties and toss out the Cooper Rush game and the last game of the season. No idea how the Gmen are in the top half of the league, but they are, so I'm counting their first matchup. That leaves us 5 games. The Eagles gave up an average of 30.2 pts in those games. If you want to use the playoff game against the Gmen, the Eagles still gave up over 26 pts/game to the offenses in the top half of the league. (If you want to exclude the games against the Gmen, the Eagles allowed over 32 pts/game to the other 4 teams in the top half of the league.) Well, don't look now, but KC has the #1 rated offense. The Eagles have been bad against good offenses. Maybe a better way to put it... Philly only held one of those teams (Jacksonville) below their season average.

3) Philly's starting FS is an undrafted FA. I'm sure Andy Reid has some plans to attack him.

4) Philly's run defense is 21st in the league. I know, I know, KC doesn't run the ball THAT much. But they have a capable ground game, and they'll be able to exploit that weakness.

5) Philly probably had the easiest 2 games to get to the SB that any team has ever had.

I could go on and on, but it's late and there's no real need. Philly actually has the ground game to cause real problems for the Chiefs. But they simply aren't that good. And if the game turns into a shootout, the Eagles won't be able to rely on that strength.

 

[ejthree]

OMG, I said "Super Bowl". I hope the NFL doesn't sue me. :scared

Alrighty, figured I'd get this started with the side and total, and I assume I'll be adding some props over the next few days.

Playoffs Record
Sides 6-2 +19.3
ML 2-3 +2.7
Totals 13-10 +18.1
Props 5-5 -2.5

KC (ML) 4 to win 4.2
Over (50.5) 2.3 to win 2
KC TT over (24.5) 4.2 to win 4. As usual, I'm not betting on a team, I'm betting AGAINST a team. KC is... KC. Good offense, mediocre defense, head coach who has no clue when it comes to clock management. I'd rather not bet on them. But I have to bet against this Eagles team. I'll try not to rehash too much of what I've covered the last few weeks.

1) Absolute weakest schedule in the NFL.

2) During the season, the Eagles played 7 games against offenses in the top half of the league (DVOA ratings). Here's how many points they allowed in those games:

35 (Det)
21 (Jax)
17 (Cooper Rush)
33 (GB)
22 (NYG at full strength)
40 (Dallas)
16 (NYG's JV team)

I'm going to take some liberties and toss out the Cooper Rush game and the last game of the season. No idea how the Gmen are in the top half of the league, but they are, so I'm counting their first matchup. That leaves us 5 games. The Eagles gave up an average of 30.2 pts in those games. If you want to use the playoff game against the Gmen, the Eagles still gave up over 26 pts/game to the offenses in the top half of the league. (If you want to exclude the games against the Gmen, the Eagles allowed over 32 pts/game to the other 4 teams in the top half of the league.) Well, don't look now, but KC has the #1 rated offense. The Eagles have been bad against good offenses. Maybe a better way to put it... Philly only held one of those teams (Jacksonville) below their season average.

3) Philly's starting FS is an undrafted FA. I'm sure Andy Reid has some plans to attack him.

4) Philly's run defense is 21st in the league. I know, I know, KC doesn't run the ball THAT much. But they have a capable ground game, and they'll be able to exploit that weakness.

5) Philly probably had the easiest 2 games to get to the SB that any team has ever had.

I could go on and on, but it's late and there's no real need. Philly actually has the ground game to cause real problems for the Chiefs. But they simply aren't that good. And if the game turns into a shootout, the Eagles won't be able to rely on that strength.

I'm on board with these two Smitty. Hoping that KC will take the lead and never look back. Andy will not take his foot off the gas and hopefully force the Eagles to abandon the run game . I have several props my friends have played but the one I like best is Eagles-KC total rushing yards under 262.5. Best of luck and thanks for your insight this year, your input has been a most welcomed addition to the forum.

GL and go Chiefs :0074

 

[Smitty]

I'm on board with these two Smitty. Hoping that KC will take the lead and never look back. Andy will not take his foot off the gas and hopefully force the Eagles to abandon the run game . I have several props my friends have played but the one I like best is Eagles-KC total rushing yards under 262.5. Best of luck and thanks for your insight this year, your input has been a most welcomed addition to the forum.

GL and go Chiefs :0074

Thank you, sir. That's an interesting prop. I'm actually tempted to go over. I can see Pacheco just barreling over beaten-down defenders in the 4th quarter as the Chiefs salt away a 3-TD win. But I'll probably stay off it. Maybe I'll look at the # for KC.

It's been nice, being retired and able to spend more time on football. I actually made enough this season to live off of. So that was cool. Only enough for the football season though. Gonna have to live off my savings/investments for the next 7 months. Lame.

Alrighty, time to go prop-hunting.

 

[rocky mountain]

OMG, I said "Super Bowl". I hope the NFL doesn't sue me. :scared

Alrighty, figured I'd get this started with the side and total, and I assume I'll be adding some props over the next few days.

Playoffs Record
Sides 6-2 +19.3
ML 2-3 +2.7
Totals 13-10 +18.1
Props 5-5 -2.5

KC (ML) 4 to win 4.2
Over (50.5) 2.3 to win 2
KC TT over (24.5) 4.2 to win 4. As usual, I'm not betting on a team, I'm betting AGAINST a team. KC is... KC. Good offense, mediocre defense, head coach who has no clue when it comes to clock management. I'd rather not bet on them. But I have to bet against this Eagles team. I'll try not to rehash too much of what I've covered the last few weeks.

1) Absolute weakest schedule in the NFL.

2) During the season, the Eagles played 7 games against offenses in the top half of the league (DVOA ratings). Here's how many points they allowed in those games:

35 (Det)
21 (Jax)
17 (Cooper Rush)
33 (GB)
22 (NYG at full strength)
40 (Dallas)
16 (NYG's JV team)

I'm going to take some liberties and toss out the Cooper Rush game and the last game of the season. No idea how the Gmen are in the top half of the league, but they are, so I'm counting their first matchup. That leaves us 5 games. The Eagles gave up an average of 30.2 pts in those games. If you want to use the playoff game against the Gmen, the Eagles still gave up over 26 pts/game to the offenses in the top half of the league. (If you want to exclude the games against the Gmen, the Eagles allowed over 32 pts/game to the other 4 teams in the top half of the league.) Well, don't look now, but KC has the #1 rated offense. The Eagles have been bad against good offenses. Maybe a better way to put it... Philly only held one of those teams (Jacksonville) below their season average.

3) Philly's starting FS is an undrafted FA. I'm sure Andy Reid has some plans to attack him.

4) Philly's run defense is 21st in the league. I know, I know, KC doesn't run the ball THAT much. But they have a capable ground game, and they'll be able to exploit that weakness.

5) Philly probably had the easiest 2 games to get to the SB that any team has ever had.

I could go on and on, but it's late and there's no real need. Philly actually has the ground game to cause real problems for the Chiefs. But they simply aren't that good. And if the game turns into a shootout, the Eagles won't be able to rely on that strength.

Again great analysis and breakdowns Smitty, such a skilled handicapper! I'm on my Iggles , but can't argue too many of these stone colds facts you laid out, and the Dallas game really scared me as the eagles got ahead with their backup QB, but then The Cowboys got going and the Iggles couldn't stop them... I'm hoping that they filled the gaps, but they are vulnerable short and deep through the middle and I have been having nightmares of swing passes, quick slants, and KC up n outs which may get this defense team back on their heels again. I'm hoping that doesn't happen and they keep their confidence and apply pressure to Mahommes, that where my money and heart has leaned. :0008

 

[rocky mountain]

Also, the Eagles got their secondary back at full strength Maddox and CJ Gardner Johnson, they were missing through some of these games, they are great.

 

[Smitty]

EJ, your friends must have hammered that prop. I'm seeing 250.5. Which is odd, since the individual team #s are 99.5 (KC) and 144.5 (Philly). All at standard juice.

Hurts Any Time TD Scorer 2.3 to win 2
Jody Fortson Any Time TD Scorer 1 to win 10
Dallas Goedert Any Time TD Scorer 1 to win 1.5
KC Defense/ST TD 1 to win 5.5. Eh, why not?
Longest 4th Down Conversion Over 2.5 yards 2.1 to win 2
Philly Combined Longest Pass & Rush Over 64.5 yards 1 unit. I'm assuming Hurts will break off a 25-yard run, which means I "only" need a 40-yd pass.
KC Rushing Yds Over 99.5 2 units
Neither Mahomes or Hurts to throw for 300 yds 2 to win 2.4
Hurts Under 20.5 Completions 1 unit
KC to win both halves 1 to win 4.2
KC 1st Team to 20 pts 2 to win 2.3
KC to record 1st sack 1 unit

Well, that's what I came up with in almost 2 hours of looking through props. Clearly I have lost my mind. I haven't put these in yet, as I'll take a little more time, probably tomorrow, checking my other out for better #s and, you know, any other props that look interesting.

 

[Smitty]

Also, the Eagles got their secondary back at full strength Maddox and CJ Gardner Johnson, they were missing through some of these games, they are great.

Fair point. I'll be happy if KC scores 25+ points and I hit a few props.

 

[ejthree]

It was available for longer than I expected but they do have clout lol also ov 24 first half but that was short lived. Think they may have to work for that one.:0074

 

[LonghornMM]

Great info, Smitty. Thank you for posting. :0008

 

[bleedingpurple]

The Eagles are a matchup nightmare, The Chiefs receivers are no match for Philly secondary. They have to get it done throwing short passes to Kelce and to backs out of the backfield. The Game against the Lions was garbage points as it was against prevent D. The Packers were able to run on them with Jordan Davis out but when he is in the run defense is very good. The Jaguars game had to do with some turnovers and the Jags offense was shut down the entire second half. Also the packers scored in prevent in 4th quarter. The Eagles in my opinion are the best team in football and will give the Chief's defense fits.

Eagles run defense I much better now. Only gashed when Davis was out.

 

[rocky mountain]

The Eagles are a matchup nightmare, The Chiefs receivers are no match for Philly secondary. They have to get it done throwing short passes to Kelce and to backs out of the backfield. The Game against the Lions was garbage points as it was against prevent D. The Packers were able to run on them with Jordan Davis out but when he is in the run defense is very good. The Jaguars game had to do with some turnovers and the Jags offense was shut down the entire second half. Also the packers scored in prevent in 4th quarter. The Eagles in my opinion are the best team in football and will give the Chief's defense fits.

Eagles run defense I much better now. Only gashed when Davis was out.

Specifically spot on Bleed Purple!

 

[Smitty]

BP, thank you for the input. Please elaborate on Davis. From what I see, he is a backup who (including playoffs) has 22 tackles in 15 games, with 1 TFL. I understand that defensive tackles can certainly impact the run game without making the tackle, but... he's a backup. I know he'll see the field often, but how is a backup tackle THAT impactful on the run game? Does he play significantly more minutes than Cox and Hargrove? Both of those guys average over 2 tackles/game with a combined 19 TFLs in 38 games.

 

[Smitty]

Ok, got two better #s. And the odds got worse on the Hurts TD prop. Updated #s are in bold. If I don't list a "to win" amount, it's standard juice.

Hurts Any Time TD Scorer 2 units
Jody Fortson Any Time TD Scorer 1 to win 10
Dallas Goedert Any Time TD Scorer 1 to win 1.7
KC Defense/ST TD 1 to win 6. Eh, why not?
Longest 4th Down Conversion Over 2.5 yards 2.1 to win 2
Philly Combined Longest Pass & Rush Over 64.5 yards 1 unit. I'm assuming Hurts will break off a 25-yard run, which means I "only" need a 40-yd pass.
KC Rushing Yds Over 99.5 2 units
Neither Mahomes or Hurts to throw for 300 yds 2 to win 2.4
Hurts Under 20.5 Completions 1 unit
KC to win both halves 1 to win 4.2
KC 1st Team to 20 pts 2 to win 2.3
KC to record 1st sack 1 unit

Made a few small adjustments in wager size. Here's where I'm at now.

Hurts Any Time TD Scorer 2 units
Jody Fortson Any Time TD Scorer 1 to win 10
Dallas Goedert Any Time TD Scorer 1 to win 1.7
KC Defense/ST TD .5 to win 3. Eh, why not?
Longest 4th Down Conversion Over 2.5 yards 2.1 to win 2
Philly Combined Longest Pass & Rush Over 64.5 yards 1 unit. I'm assuming Hurts will break off a 25-yard run, which means I "only" need a 40-yd pass.
KC Rushing Yds Over 99.5 1 unit
Neither Mahomes or Hurts to throw for 300 yds 3 to win 3.6
Hurts Under 20.5 Completions 1 unit
KC to win both halves 1 to win 4 (while putting this in, I noticed this also dropped)
KC 1st Team to 20 pts 2 to win 2.3
KC to record 1st sack 1 unit

Added KC to call the 1st TO (2.4 to win 2). Oddly, every time I saw this bet during the year, it was always -115 for each team. I was making bank on this before Matt Ruhle got fired. Anyway... I thought this was interesting.... KC is -120. That's probably no accident.

Also added Total Players to Throw a Pass over 2.5. 1 to win 1.5.

And I'm gonna throw this out there while I'm thinking about it... I probably won't get much chance to post during the game, other than at halftime, so I'll mention this now... If Mahomes gets knocked out of the game, I will almost definitely take advantage of the over-adjusted # and bet more on KC.

 

[Smitty]

While I continue getting stupid on this game... may as well throw in at least one parlay. Ok, more than one.

KC (+3.5) and Over (43.5) 4 to win 5.2

KC (+7.5) / Over (41.5) / KC TT Over (23.5) / Hurts to score a TD 1 to win 3

KC (-6.5) and Under (60.5) .5 to win 1.6

 

[bleedingpurple]

BP, thank you for the input. Please elaborate on Davis. From what I see, he is a backup who (including playoffs) has 22 tackles in 15 games, with 1 TFL. I understand that defensive tackles can certainly impact the run game without making the tackle, but... he's a backup. I know he'll see the field often, but how is a backup tackle THAT impactful on the run game? Does he play significantly more minutes than Cox and Hargrove? Both of those guys average over 2 tackles/game with a combined 19 TFLs in 38 games.

That's a great question. Davis will be used early downs and short yardage. He doesn't get a lot of tackles because they won't run at him. I don't think the Chiefs will run short yardage unless the give the ball to Toney on end arounds. I think they keep the ball in Mahomes hands. I should have also added that the run defense also acquired Linval Joseph as well, they rotate a ton and are fresh up front. What tends to happen to the Eagles though is that they can stop the run several plays and then the opponent pops a big one. Like McCaffrey did, but then again McCaffrey was easy to contain considering the Niner's passing game had no shot. I could easily have this game all wrong and I hop I am because I can't stand Philly to be honest. Good luck and I should have just kept my comments in my own thread so sorry about that.

 

[Smitty]

That's a great question. Davis will be used early downs and short yardage. He doesn't get a lot of tackles because they won't run at him. I don't think the Chiefs will run short yardage unless the give the ball to Toney on end arounds. I think they keep the ball in Mahomes hands. I should have also added that the run defense also acquired Linval Joseph as well, they rotate a ton and are fresh up front. What tends to happen to the Eagles though is that they can stop the run several plays and then the opponent pops a big one. Like McCaffrey did, but then again McCaffrey was easy to contain considering the Niner's passing game had no shot. I could easily have this game all wrong and I hop I am because I can't stand Philly to be honest. Good luck and I should have just kept my comments in my own thread so sorry about that.

Thank you for the explanation. Yeah, along with Joseph, they certainly have 4 very capable defensive tackles. As well as Mr. Cheap Shot himself, Mr. Suh. If I could bet on who will damage Mahomes' ankle, my money would be on Suh, even in limited playing time.

Absolutely zero need to apologize, I welcome the discussion/debate.

I have no delusions that KC is a powerhouse team. As I said recently, Mahomes reminds me more and more of Favre. He makes a lot of dumb decisions, but somehow usually gets away with it. And a big factor in his success is his mobility. I still expect that to be compromised tomorrow. High ankle sprains simply do not heal in a few weeks.

But I absolutely am not buying Philly as a good team (despite beating Minny :lol. They have been flattered by a very weak schedule. They struggled to beat Houston, for fuck's sake.

KC sort of played to the level of competition this year. Against weaker teams, they played somewhat conservatively and didn't put up a lot of points. But look what they did against the NFC... 44 against Arizona in the season opener (remember, AZ was expected to be good)... 41 against Tampa!!... 44 against SF!!

One more factor I haven't mentioned... until he proves me wrong, I don't trust Jalen Hurts in a championship game. He's played in a few....

2016 NC 13 of 31 131 yards 1 TD 0 INT
2017 NC 3 of 8 21 yards 0 TD 0 INT (before famously being benched for a fella named Tua at halftime)

NFL playoffs...

2021 23 of 43 258 yards 1 TD 2 INT
2022 16 of 24 154 yards 2 TD 0 INT (if you count games against the Giants)
15 of 25 121 yards 0 TD 0 INT

In those 5 games, he has completed 70 of 131 passes for 685 yards. That is 5.2 yards/att, which is pretty bad.

Sure, maybe Philly gets the lead and controls the game with their rushing attack, and Hurts doesn't have to make one single big throw. Or maybe he gets lucky, like the 4th down play early against SF. Anything can happen in one game. But I think Philly's defense is going to get exposed and if Hurts has to play from behind, they are in trouble.

Hey, we'll see what happens. I've been wrong a few times :scared. As I stated earlier, as long as KC scores at least 25 and I hit some props, I'll be happy. I don't really love this game, and I'm not super thrilled to watch it. But, you know, it's the Super Bowl (whoops, I said it again!!).

And, because I don't have enough on props... I'm looking at playing the 4th quarter to be higher scoring than the 1st quarter. It's -225, and I hate laying that kind of juice. But it's reasonable for that bet.

 

[bleedingpurple]

Thank you for the explanation. Yeah, along with Joseph, they certainly have 4 very capable defensive tackles. As well as Mr. Cheap Shot himself, Mr. Suh. If I could bet on who will damage Mahomes' ankle, my money would be on Suh, even in limited playing time.

Absolutely zero need to apologize, I welcome the discussion/debate.

I have no delusions that KC is a powerhouse team. As I said recently, Mahomes reminds me more and more of Favre. He makes a lot of dumb decisions, but somehow usually gets away with it. And a big factor in his success is his mobility. I still expect that to be compromised tomorrow. High ankle sprains simply do not heal in a few weeks.

But I absolutely am not buying Philly as a good team (despite beating Minny :lol. They have been flattered by a very weak schedule. They struggled to beat Houston, for fuck's sake.

KC sort of played to the level of competition this year. Against weaker teams, they played somewhat conservatively and didn't put up a lot of points. But look what they did against the NFC... 44 against Arizona in the season opener (remember, AZ was expected to be good)... 41 against Tampa!!... 44 against SF!!

One more factor I haven't mentioned... until he proves me wrong, I don't trust Jalen Hurts in a championship game. He's played in a few....

2016 NC 13 of 31 131 yards 1 TD 0 INT
2017 NC 3 of 8 21 yards 0 TD 0 INT (before famously being benched for a fella named Tua at halftime)

NFL playoffs...

2021 23 of 43 258 yards 1 TD 2 INT
2022 16 of 24 154 yards 2 TD 0 INT (if you count games against the Giants)
15 of 25 121 yards 0 TD 0 INT

In those 5 games, he has completed 70 of 131 passes for 685 yards. That is 5.2 yards/att, which is pretty bad.

Sure, maybe Philly gets the lead and controls the game with their rushing attack, and Hurts doesn't have to make one single big throw. Or maybe he gets lucky, like the 4th down play early against SF. Anything can happen in one game. But I think Philly's defense is going to get exposed and if Hurts has to play from behind, they are in trouble.

Hey, we'll see what happens. I've been wrong a few times :scared. As I stated earlier, as long as KC scores at least 25 and I hit some props, I'll be happy. I don't really love this game, and I'm not super thrilled to watch it. But, you know, it's the Super Bowl (whoops, I said it again!!).

And, because I don't have enough on props... I'm looking at playing the 4th quarter to be higher scoring than the 1st quarter. It's -225, and I hate laying that kind of juice. But it's reasonable for that bet.

good luck. We can look at a lot of games.
chiefs werent beating teams with winning records either and I don’t count the crappy chargers. They did lose To the Colts. The Chiefs rely on getting a ton of pressure
but this he best offensive line they will have seen and I think the eagles receivers can beat the young d backs. Be interesting to see how it plays out and Mahomes maybe the best I’ve ever seen

no need to cheap shot my vikes

 

[kickserv]

Over (50.5) 2.3 to win 2
KC TT over (24.5) 4.2 to win 4

You are on board with Dudley, so you should win the two selections above:spotting:

https://www.madjacksports.com/forum...m-diff-rent-strokes-super-bowl-lvii-selection

 

[Smitty]

You are on board with Dudley, so you should win the two selections above:spotting:

https://www.madjacksports.com/forum...m-diff-rent-strokes-super-bowl-lvii-selection

Any chance Dudley will pay me now, so I don't have to sweat it out?

 

[Smitty]

no need to cheap shot my vikes

Just checking if you were paying attention. :toast: