Last week produced a 1-1 week, winning the bigger play, which produced a profit of +0.8%.
Like last week, I want to talk about a couple of situations, which exist for the Super Bowl. Last week I told you the better defensive team (team who allowed fewer points during the regular season) was 46-18-2 ats since 1970 in the Championship game. That record is now 47-19-2 since 1970 and in the 34 years of Championship games since the merger, this situation has produced 17 winning years, 5 losing years and 12 break even years (minus the juice). File this away for next year.
In the SB, that same defensive situation works. It doesn't work as well, producing a record of 20-14-3. That's still 59% winners. That's not enough for me to play a team but is still a solid record. Although, since 1978, the better defensive team is 15-7-3 67%. Advantage New England.
This week, I want to look at the better defensive team, but from a different perspective. One that I think gauges a defense better than just points allowed. It still deals with points allowed but it also looks at their opponent's offensive averages. In other words, for this year, NE is allowing 15 points per game (rounded up or down) against teams averaging 19 points per game on offense. The NE defense is allowing four points less per game than their opponents. Carolina is allowing 19 points per game against teams averaging 19 points per game. Carolina is allowing zero points less per game than their opponents are averaging. This would seem to indicate that NE has the better defense. If we can accept that for this research, we would then find the following for SB games played since 1970. There have been 33 SB's played since 1970. The team with the better defense (using the opponents offensive averages as a gauge) is now 17-9-3 ats 65%. There were four years where both team's defenses were tied. The underdogs in those years were 3-1 ats and straight up. One of those ties was NE two year's ago. The SU record in these games is 23-6 79%. Since 1981, the record improves to 13-3-2 81% ATS and an incredible 17-1 94% SU. And, of those 17 straight up winners, we're talking about four dogs. Those dogs were Washington over Denver in 1987 42-10 as +3.5 point dogs, the NY Giants over Buffalo in 1990 20-19 as +7 point dogs, the Denver Broncos over Green Bay in 1997 31-24 as +11.5 point dogs and Tampa Bay last year over Oakland 48-21 as 3.5 point dogs. Overall, dogs are 4-1 ats with all four winners winning straight up. Advantage New England.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND -7 CAROLINA 37.5
Let's first go over the numbers of both of these teams and then we'll talk about the specific match-ups, some myths I have read this week, how I see the game developing and then a few other similar situations, which have taken place over the last 33 Super Bowl's that might be relevant to this game.
NE is averaging 3.4 ypr against teams allowing 4.0 ypr this year for a net of -0.6 ypr. They are averaging 6.0 yps against teams allowing 5.8 yps for a net of +0.2 yps. That translates to 4.8 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl for a net of -0.1 yppl on offense. On defense, NE is allowing 3.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr for a net of +0.5 and allowing 5.0 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps for a net of +0.8 yps. That totals out to allowing 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl for a net of +0.6 yppl.
For Carolina, they are averaging 4.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.2 ypr for a net of -0.2 ypr. They average 6.3 yps against teams allowing 6.1 yps for a net of +0.2 yps. That totals to 5.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl for a net of -0.1 yppl. On defense, they allow 4.0 ypr against teams averaging 4.1 ypr for a net of +0.1 ypr and allow 5.3 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps for a net of +0.5 yps. That totals out to 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl for a net of +0.3 yppl. All of these numbers are for regular season games only.
What we have then is NE averaging 4.8 yppl against 4.9 yppl and Carolina averaging 5.1 yppl against 5.2 yppl. Even though Carolina averages more yards per play, these teams are even on offense because Carolina has played weaker defenses, which have helped them produce better numbers. But, when we compare their numbers to their opponents, we see they are -0.1 yppl below average, just like NE. On defense, NE allows 4.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl and Carolina allows 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Both teams have played offenses that are equal but NE has produced the better numbers from a yards per play perspective. It's interesting to note both teams throw the ball for +0.2 yps better than their opponents defend the pass. But, Carolina runs the ball better, averaging -0.2 ypr worse while NE averages -0.6 yps worse. If both teams throw the ball equally well and Carolina runs the ball better, why are both teams equal when you total up the two offenses? Simply because NE throws the ball about 55 of the time and Carolina throws the ball only about 48% of the time. Therefore, NE accumulates more of their yards through the air because passes average a lot more yards than rushes. During the playoffs, Carolina has run the ball 61% of the time (53% against Dallas - the only good defense they played) and NE has thrown the ball 57% of the time.
Based on these regular season numbers, we could then expect both teams to average about 3.4 ypr. NE could be expected to average about 5.7 yps and Carolina to average about 5.2 yps. For the game, NE would average about 4.7 yppl and Carolina about 4.5 yppl. NE, during the regular season, scored at a higher rate in terms of yards per point than Carolina did. If that continues here, NE would then be favored to win this game by a score of around 23-15. The total yards predicted, based on this, is just about even, but NE (based on the regular season), figures to get in the endzone a little easier than Carolina. During the playoffs, the NE offense has slipped a little, from averaging 14.5 yards point scored during the regular season to 15.8 in the playoffs. Carolina was at 15.8 during the regular season and is at 15.6 in the playoffs. The biggest difference has been on defense, where Carolina is allowing 24.3 in the playoffs, compared with 15.5 during the regular season. I suspect that is because they aren't turning the ball over in the playoffs, which has allowed their defense to defend longer fields and not allow as many points. NE, who was very good during the regular season, has gotten even better in the playoffs, allowing just 21.1 yards per point scored (they allowed 19.7 during the regular season).
Against specific match-ups similar to these two teams this year, this is how each team has fared. Carolina is going to have to run the ball and NE obviously wants to stop the run. As mentioned, NE is allowing 3.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr and is allowing 89 yards per game rushing against teams averaging 112 yards per game rushing. Carolina has played four games against similar competition. Against Dallas they have gained 2.7 ypr on 75 yards and 3.1 ypr on 107 yards. Against Tennessee, they gained 2.6 ypr on 44 yards and against Jacksonville, they gained 4.5 ypr on 122 yards. In all, Carolina gained an average of 87 yards and 3.3 ypr against teams allowing 86 yards and 3.5 ypr. That makes their running game about average to slightly below average against good run defenses. If NE can stop the Carolina rushing game or NE gets a sizable lead, Carolina will have to throw the ball. NE allows 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps and 204 yards passing per game against teams averaging 195 yards per game. Carolina faced six teams with similar characteristics. In those six games, they averaged 6.9 yards per pass against teams allowing only 5.1 yps. Clearly, they were able to throw the ball against these teams. But, interestingly, if you take out five long passes of the 159 they completed (two of which clearly came on a broken coverage or defenders falling down and allowing long gains), they only averaged 5.5 yps against 5.1 yps. They were still above average but the numbers are much more average. I think they will be able to throw some but not necessarily in obvious passing situations. For NE, they faced six teams who either run the ball well or have a run first mentality. They allowed 3.6 ypr against teams who averaged 4.3 ypr and 107 yards per game to teams who averaged 132 yards per game. NE faced seven teams who are above average throwing the ball and they allowed those teams to average 5.9 yps (those teams averaged 6.7 yps) and 259 yards per game (those teams averaged 230 yards per game). Clearly, Carolina struggles to run against good teams and NE has shut down both, good rushing teams and good passing teams. The jury is still out as to how well Carolina can throw the ball against good pass defenses. For NE on offense, they must be able to throw the ball. They have faced six teams who defend the pass well. In those games, they have averaged 6.2 yps against teams who allow 5.2 yps and 230 yards per game against teams allowing 178 yards per game. Carolina has faced eight teams who throw the ball well. In those eight games, they allowed 6.5 yps against teams averaging 6.5 yps and 257 yards per game against teams averaging 235 yards per game. Clearly, NE can still throw the ball against good pass defenses and Carolina is just average in defending the pass.
Like last week, I want to talk about a couple of situations, which exist for the Super Bowl. Last week I told you the better defensive team (team who allowed fewer points during the regular season) was 46-18-2 ats since 1970 in the Championship game. That record is now 47-19-2 since 1970 and in the 34 years of Championship games since the merger, this situation has produced 17 winning years, 5 losing years and 12 break even years (minus the juice). File this away for next year.
In the SB, that same defensive situation works. It doesn't work as well, producing a record of 20-14-3. That's still 59% winners. That's not enough for me to play a team but is still a solid record. Although, since 1978, the better defensive team is 15-7-3 67%. Advantage New England.
This week, I want to look at the better defensive team, but from a different perspective. One that I think gauges a defense better than just points allowed. It still deals with points allowed but it also looks at their opponent's offensive averages. In other words, for this year, NE is allowing 15 points per game (rounded up or down) against teams averaging 19 points per game on offense. The NE defense is allowing four points less per game than their opponents. Carolina is allowing 19 points per game against teams averaging 19 points per game. Carolina is allowing zero points less per game than their opponents are averaging. This would seem to indicate that NE has the better defense. If we can accept that for this research, we would then find the following for SB games played since 1970. There have been 33 SB's played since 1970. The team with the better defense (using the opponents offensive averages as a gauge) is now 17-9-3 ats 65%. There were four years where both team's defenses were tied. The underdogs in those years were 3-1 ats and straight up. One of those ties was NE two year's ago. The SU record in these games is 23-6 79%. Since 1981, the record improves to 13-3-2 81% ATS and an incredible 17-1 94% SU. And, of those 17 straight up winners, we're talking about four dogs. Those dogs were Washington over Denver in 1987 42-10 as +3.5 point dogs, the NY Giants over Buffalo in 1990 20-19 as +7 point dogs, the Denver Broncos over Green Bay in 1997 31-24 as +11.5 point dogs and Tampa Bay last year over Oakland 48-21 as 3.5 point dogs. Overall, dogs are 4-1 ats with all four winners winning straight up. Advantage New England.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NEW ENGLAND -7 CAROLINA 37.5
Let's first go over the numbers of both of these teams and then we'll talk about the specific match-ups, some myths I have read this week, how I see the game developing and then a few other similar situations, which have taken place over the last 33 Super Bowl's that might be relevant to this game.
NE is averaging 3.4 ypr against teams allowing 4.0 ypr this year for a net of -0.6 ypr. They are averaging 6.0 yps against teams allowing 5.8 yps for a net of +0.2 yps. That translates to 4.8 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl for a net of -0.1 yppl on offense. On defense, NE is allowing 3.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr for a net of +0.5 and allowing 5.0 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps for a net of +0.8 yps. That totals out to allowing 4.4 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl for a net of +0.6 yppl.
For Carolina, they are averaging 4.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.2 ypr for a net of -0.2 ypr. They average 6.3 yps against teams allowing 6.1 yps for a net of +0.2 yps. That totals to 5.1 yppl against teams allowing 5.2 yppl for a net of -0.1 yppl. On defense, they allow 4.0 ypr against teams averaging 4.1 ypr for a net of +0.1 ypr and allow 5.3 yps against teams averaging 5.8 yps for a net of +0.5 yps. That totals out to 4.7 yppl against teams averaging 5.0 yppl for a net of +0.3 yppl. All of these numbers are for regular season games only.
What we have then is NE averaging 4.8 yppl against 4.9 yppl and Carolina averaging 5.1 yppl against 5.2 yppl. Even though Carolina averages more yards per play, these teams are even on offense because Carolina has played weaker defenses, which have helped them produce better numbers. But, when we compare their numbers to their opponents, we see they are -0.1 yppl below average, just like NE. On defense, NE allows 4.4 yppl against 5.0 yppl and Carolina allows 4.7 yppl against 5.0 yppl. Both teams have played offenses that are equal but NE has produced the better numbers from a yards per play perspective. It's interesting to note both teams throw the ball for +0.2 yps better than their opponents defend the pass. But, Carolina runs the ball better, averaging -0.2 ypr worse while NE averages -0.6 yps worse. If both teams throw the ball equally well and Carolina runs the ball better, why are both teams equal when you total up the two offenses? Simply because NE throws the ball about 55 of the time and Carolina throws the ball only about 48% of the time. Therefore, NE accumulates more of their yards through the air because passes average a lot more yards than rushes. During the playoffs, Carolina has run the ball 61% of the time (53% against Dallas - the only good defense they played) and NE has thrown the ball 57% of the time.
Based on these regular season numbers, we could then expect both teams to average about 3.4 ypr. NE could be expected to average about 5.7 yps and Carolina to average about 5.2 yps. For the game, NE would average about 4.7 yppl and Carolina about 4.5 yppl. NE, during the regular season, scored at a higher rate in terms of yards per point than Carolina did. If that continues here, NE would then be favored to win this game by a score of around 23-15. The total yards predicted, based on this, is just about even, but NE (based on the regular season), figures to get in the endzone a little easier than Carolina. During the playoffs, the NE offense has slipped a little, from averaging 14.5 yards point scored during the regular season to 15.8 in the playoffs. Carolina was at 15.8 during the regular season and is at 15.6 in the playoffs. The biggest difference has been on defense, where Carolina is allowing 24.3 in the playoffs, compared with 15.5 during the regular season. I suspect that is because they aren't turning the ball over in the playoffs, which has allowed their defense to defend longer fields and not allow as many points. NE, who was very good during the regular season, has gotten even better in the playoffs, allowing just 21.1 yards per point scored (they allowed 19.7 during the regular season).
Against specific match-ups similar to these two teams this year, this is how each team has fared. Carolina is going to have to run the ball and NE obviously wants to stop the run. As mentioned, NE is allowing 3.5 ypr against teams averaging 4.0 ypr and is allowing 89 yards per game rushing against teams averaging 112 yards per game rushing. Carolina has played four games against similar competition. Against Dallas they have gained 2.7 ypr on 75 yards and 3.1 ypr on 107 yards. Against Tennessee, they gained 2.6 ypr on 44 yards and against Jacksonville, they gained 4.5 ypr on 122 yards. In all, Carolina gained an average of 87 yards and 3.3 ypr against teams allowing 86 yards and 3.5 ypr. That makes their running game about average to slightly below average against good run defenses. If NE can stop the Carolina rushing game or NE gets a sizable lead, Carolina will have to throw the ball. NE allows 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps and 204 yards passing per game against teams averaging 195 yards per game. Carolina faced six teams with similar characteristics. In those six games, they averaged 6.9 yards per pass against teams allowing only 5.1 yps. Clearly, they were able to throw the ball against these teams. But, interestingly, if you take out five long passes of the 159 they completed (two of which clearly came on a broken coverage or defenders falling down and allowing long gains), they only averaged 5.5 yps against 5.1 yps. They were still above average but the numbers are much more average. I think they will be able to throw some but not necessarily in obvious passing situations. For NE, they faced six teams who either run the ball well or have a run first mentality. They allowed 3.6 ypr against teams who averaged 4.3 ypr and 107 yards per game to teams who averaged 132 yards per game. NE faced seven teams who are above average throwing the ball and they allowed those teams to average 5.9 yps (those teams averaged 6.7 yps) and 259 yards per game (those teams averaged 230 yards per game). Clearly, Carolina struggles to run against good teams and NE has shut down both, good rushing teams and good passing teams. The jury is still out as to how well Carolina can throw the ball against good pass defenses. For NE on offense, they must be able to throw the ball. They have faced six teams who defend the pass well. In those games, they have averaged 6.2 yps against teams who allow 5.2 yps and 230 yards per game against teams allowing 178 yards per game. Carolina has faced eight teams who throw the ball well. In those eight games, they allowed 6.5 yps against teams averaging 6.5 yps and 257 yards per game against teams averaging 235 yards per game. Clearly, NE can still throw the ball against good pass defenses and Carolina is just average in defending the pass.
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loving the call
