Super props that will get the cash

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checkraiser

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First off, good luck to everyone it has been a crazy year in the NFL and hopefully we can end the year with some wins

My top prop plays:

Will either team convert a 4th down attempt YES -175
the price does not scare me here as I believe both teams will probably convert one and I think should NE fall behind late in the game they will be going for it on 4th down almost every time. last week philly converted after being down late and this week NE will.
The great thing about this prop is that any 4th and inches is a possibility of a winning ticket. And it could happen from anywhere on the field, not just goal line situations.

Team to have the most net rushing yards ST. LOUIS-200
not much has to be said about this except if Faulk should happen to get hurt this ticket will still cash as Candidate is probably the most capable backup in the league. St. Louis can run the ball at all times, but if they do open this game up expect them to hand it off to Faulk often late in the game and conversly expecting that NE will be primarily throwing the ball to try to get back into the game.

Shortest td scored in the game OVER 1.5 yards +100
Purely gambling here that the ball does not end up on the one yard line or less in this game. nothing sound to back this play up other than thinking if the rams get the ball at the 3,4 or 5 yard line they are not likely to pound it up the middle for a couple of plays, also NE solid on goaline defense adds to this play

Another hefty chalk play
# of rams to have a rushing attempt OVER 2.5 -260
REALLY like this one Faulk for sure, now the speculation.
At some point Warner will either be forced out of the pocket and will have to scamper or the ever popular QB sneak which isn't as likely with his ribs but nevertheless Warner will get at least one attempt somewhere. And the ticket casher could come from a variety of sources but most likely Trung Candidate probably in the latter stages of the game. The rams are commonly known to run wide receiver reverses and end arounds from anywhere on the field. Also Ernie Conwell carries the ball every so often in short yardage situations, so this prop may go way over the 2.5 posted.

Some medium sized props I will also be playing include

Total sacks by Ram defense OVER 3.5 +120
ESPECIALLY if Bledsoe comes into the game

Total missed fg's by both teams UNDER 1.5 -200
both very solid kickers, in the dome on the carpet
don't think we'll see two missed kicks from these squads

Total receiving yards by R. Proehl OVER 14.5 -115
reminds me a lot of last year when Brandon Stokely of the ravens had a huge game out of nowhere, Proehl is the same type of receiver with good hands and all it may take is one catch.

Last but not least Will both teams make a fg of 30 yards or more YES -125
For many of the reasons listed above solid kicking games on both sides of the field

Sorry so long but I do believe each one of these plays has a great chance of getting the money.
Good Luck and comments welcome
 

yyz

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The thing about the 4th down, is it must be successful, and that price is way too dicey, in my book.

Another "sucker bet" is the o/u 1.5 yd td......with both of these teams airing it out, you will see an endzone pass interference. A one yard td is a good deal at -120

Rickey Proehl? Perhaps at -115 he is worth a small shot, but let's face it.......he ain't a "go to" guy.

Total missed fg's........NE has a great special teams rush, as we saw last week. A blocked fg is not out of the question, and with the pressure of this game, I can see a couple misses. I think -200 is far too much to lay on this prop. Again, for the sake of the money, I would go the other way.

I love the both over 30 yards bet. This game will have plenty of fg tries, I believe. (4-5?) I don't think this will be a "shootout", as the defenses wil play great.


Good luck!
 

checkraiser

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yyz Appreciate you taking time to reply

About the 4th down conversion, at some point someone will be down(unless the game is tied throughout the entire 4th qt) the possibility of having to make a 4th down to keep a drive alive is inevidible and if the rams are ahead substantially expect the prevent defense (which coincidentally I believe prevents you from scoring quickly however guarantees you score). I think this prop will be won at some point prior to the final minutes of the game, I just don't believe NE can settle for too many field goals and expect to win the game.

Reagarding your "Sucker Bet" theory, is pass interference in the endzone a possibility, of course but with these two secondaries I will take my chance
and by the way it is only a "sucker bet" if it is a losing bet and that has yet to be decided

For you to bring up that blocked fg last week against pitt is a really weak comparison to this weeks game. Kris Brown has had trouble all year long and for him to have a kick blocked is no surprise, if you place a wager on this prop hoping for a blocked kick that seems a bit of a sucker bet. If they miss two fg's that would be a shock as both kickers are at about 80% combined on the year but to count on one being blocked, good luck

As for Proehl I obviously never stated he's a go to guy, simply compared him to B Stokley last year as a guy who caught a few passes that nobody expected would, I'm only looking for 15 total rec yards.

The one prop I like best the over 2.5 for the rams rushers,
curious as to your comments on that, I know the price is steep but I can't see it not happening

Again good luck and thanks for your opinions
 
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bean counter

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i cant believe what i just read. i dont know how many rams games you guys have watched but proehl is absolutely a go to guy. look back through the game logs and see how many times they throw to proehl on third down it was unreal. it happened a lot the guy is gold on third down that is when he mainly plays and he gets the job done. last week proehl was not a factor martz decided faulk was the man and put everything on his shoulders. i would look for proehl to get some chances this week and he always comes through. good luck on the props.
 

checkraiser

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bean counter
I think you've got me all wrong , I am defending Proehl, I placed the wager on him , but by no means is he a go to guy. Your go to guy is not your offense' 5th option and thats what Proehl is a 5th option. I do believe he will catch a couple passes and hopefully they will amount to 15 yards, thats all I want.
 

bean counter

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let me start over. i am not a know it all maybe typing what i said came off wrong. i agree with your play. i have season tickets to the rams live near st louis and hear more than i need to on this team. i will say this a different way proehl does not play much he is used mainly on third down and hate to disagree but when they need a first down he is a go to guy rest of the game i would say you are right but third down many of the times he is the go to guy. he caught 5 passes for i think 50 or 60 something yards in the first game against the pats do you remember who bailed the rams out in the championship game against the bucs a couple of years back proehl did. only problem is you never know what martz is gonna do in a game first 2 playoff games proehl has not been much of a factor but i think he will be this sunday. good luck
 
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mw

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Through 18 games Proehl has caught 40 passes at 14.1 yards per catch. This prop looks way too low.

Am I the only one who took Stokley to score the first TD last year? Nice payoff on that one.
 

djv

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If you believe the game will have a little bit of a slow start and the d's are ready. No score in first 5.5 min's looks solid. I played it in Pitt game last week but had to wait for 7 mins. I played the 5.5min's in St Lou game and it took that first turnover to loose it. Even with that turnover the first score took just about 4 mins. So I like no score first 5.5 min's
 
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checkraiser

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I appreciate the feedback from everyone
I have added 3 more to my list that I feel should win and quite frankly I think they all might be rather easy, but we all know how that goes.
Total rushing yards by Trung Candidate OVER 5.5 yards +100
this seems extremely low but I believe it is because Martz has a tendancy to leave his staters in too long, but not in the super bowl if they have a commanding lead, which I think they will, he'll give some backups some action. Candidate may be in the game for other reasons (injury to faulk?) who knows, but 6 yards isn't much.

Which will occur first rams score 17.5 points or pats score 10.5 points
I'll take RAMS -130
the rams can score quickly and in bunches

Total pass completions by both teams OVER 44 -140
NE will be forced to use their short passing game the entire day and we all know that Warner will get his
good luck
 

Valuist

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I'd be inclined to go UNDER re: # of Rams to have a rushing attempt; certainly at that steep moneyline. Sacks are not counted as runs in the NFL, so I wouldn't be shocked if it was all Faulk. Martz is known for leaving his stars in long after the game has been decided so there's no guarantee Canidate gets on the field for offense.
 

Valuist

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Here's two props I'm taking flyers on: 1st player to score a TD:

Ricky Proehl +1500
David Patten +950

No, not as likely as Faulk or Troy Brown but the name of the game is value. I also like UNDER 42.5 at +300 on the moneyline.
 
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Sportsaholic

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2.5 rushinhg attempts: OVER

2.5 rushinhg attempts: OVER

Will a QB sack count as a rushing attempt?? Sack yards go against rushing yards, correct? If so MF is a given, atleast one sack or run out of pocket for Warner, and St.L will have atleast one reverse somewhere in the game, right? Seems like an easy winner from here ;)
 
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