Super12/NRL Sat picks

[Anders]

Short of time - again - so just write-ups on what I'm playing (which is a lot for me!).

Super 12:

Game 3) Otago Highlanders v Bulls, Dunedin, 14:10 CST
Highlanders -17.5.

The Bulls have still yet to win an away match in their Super 12 history but may look upon this match as their best chance to break that duck despite Otago's strong home record.
The Bulls showed plenty of spirit in coming back from a big deficit v the Brumbies last weekend to come close to snatching an astounding win. Extra merit too, as they were down to 14 men for 20 minutes for 2 sinbin offences. That's two very good road efforts (also covering big spread easily v Hurricanes in rd 2) after a poor showing against the Waratahs. New coach Phil Pretorius seems to have the goods to motivate his team of no-names and with a big pack of forwards and pacy backs, I pick them to give the Highlanders a fright today. The home side shocked people when first-choice Tony Brown was dropped for utility back Mark Urwin, who is a sound goalkicker but lacks Brown's mobility and option-making at the pivot. Regular skipper Taine Randell is also out with injury. The Highlanders have been patchy to date, 2-2 ATS and failed to cover at home last weekend v the Stormers. Really like the 17.5 pts the visitors get here so..
PLAY BULLS +17.5 (BEST BET)

Game 4) ACT Brumbies v Stormers, Canberra, 18:10 CST
Brumbies -9.5

The Stormers have been much-improved since their embarassing effort against the Waratahs in rd 2; beating the Hurricanes SU on the road and beating the spread v the Highlanders. Meanwhile, the Brumbies almost squandered a big lead v the Bulls at home last weekend after going 1-1 in Sth Africa.
Have to favour the home team here. They will be angry at their lapse in concentration last week and keen to produce the home form which saw them thump the Crusaders first-up. The return from Sth Africa may have effected their stamina v the Bulls and should be much better off after another week back home. The Stormers may, on the other hand, be starting to feel the effects of their 4th week on the road. With Stephen Larkham finally back to pull the strings for the Brumbies backline, we can back on a reasonable points return for the faves.
PLAY BRUMBIES -9.5

Game 5) Sharks v NSW Waratahs, Sth Africa, 23.30 CST
Sharks -5.5

Five games, five plays

Not normal, but I see value here again in backing the home chalk at less than a converted try. This is my first punt on the Sharks this season, who are 3-1 ATS and seeking to end their home stint with another win - their next 6 games are away. Last week they saw off the 'Canes comfortably after a slow start but it was surprising to see new coach Rudolf Straeuli, who has taken them from the bottom of the table last season, adopt an open gameplan when he is more reknown for a 10-man approach. Expect that look to come back v the Waratahs, who Cats coach Laurie Mains believes have notable weaknesses in their forward pack and prefer to play a high-paced, helter-skelter game. The Waratahs have some big injury problems and will be without key fullback and goalkicker Matt Burke and lock Peter Besseling. That has forced some major reshuffles, with Matt Dowling, who only arrived in SA 2 days ago, entrusted with the goalkicking and he's no Burke. Plenty of ammunition here to have a shot on the home team.
PLAY SHARKS -5.5

NRL:

Game 2) NZ Warriors v Broncos, Auckland, 17:00CST
Warriors +6.5

Broncos are without a number of key players, including skipper Gorden Tallis, fullback Darren Lockyer and standoff Scott Prince. Warriors only main absence is centre Richie Blackmore. Could be a tight match, as the Warriors are much-improved this year under coach Daniel Anderson. The key will be defence, and none are better at that than the Broncos. While it's a bold wager after eight of the last nine NRL matches have gone over, I'm going the other way here.
PLAY UNDER 42.5


Game 4) Penrith Panthers v The Sharks, Penrith, 18:00 CST
Panthers -3.5

Again, surprised to see the Panthers favoured - 1-4 ATS, 0-3 SU at home. But the Sharks have failed to cover their last two outings, blowing late covers v the Storm and Cowboys respectively. This time I think they will and could easily win outright, as the Panthers have injury concerns over key figures like hooker/dummy half Craig Gower.
If the Sharks can cut their error rate and match the home team in the forward battle, elusive backs like returning skipper David Peachey, Preston Campbell, Russell Richardson and Colin Best should give Penrith nightmares out wide v a team which has conceded 30pts a match.
PLAY SHARKS +3.5

Game 5) Nth Qld Cowboys v West Tigers, Nth Qld, 19:00CST
Cowboys $1.80 ML

We have a team which is 0-3 SU at home favoured (if only slightly) over the Tigers side which demolished the Storm 40-10 last weekend

Maybe the Tigers did play above themselves in recation to the drug controversy surrounding two players, but they are bigger, stronger and faster than the Cowboys who lack talent and depth. Look for John Simon's kicking game to dominate for the visitors, giving them good field position.
PLAY TIGERS ML OR +1.5 (BOOKS WILL VARY ON THIS). BEST BET.

So there we have it - a whopping six plays

Enjoy.

[This message has been edited by Anders (edited 03-23-2001).]

 

[Anders]

Results and wrap:

Super 12:

Highlanders 32 Bulls 10 (Bulls +17.5) L
Brumbies 40 Stormers 25 (Brumbies -9.5) W
Sharks 42 Waratahs 17 (Sharks -5.5) W

NRL:

Warriors 13 Broncos 12 (Under 42.5) W
Panthers 12 Sharks 31 (Sharks +3.5) W
Cowboys 24 Tigers 10 (Tigers +1.5) L

A solid 4-2, so little to grumble about, although I was upset after game one. The Bulls were patchy v the Highlanders but so were the home side and with the Bulls down 25-10 late in the second half and constantly pressing, I thought we would get our cover. But on a rare attack, Brendan Laney went under the post for the Highlanders with 4min left to put the margin at 22. A last-gasp try would have saved us and with the hooter going, the Bulls put together 8 phases as the Highlanders continued to foul to stop a try. From their 4th tap penalty, the visitors put the ball thru the chain left and Frikke Walsh looked set to barge thru a tackle from 5 metres out but dropped the ball and the final whistle sounded

However, we got back on track with a very pleasing under in the Warriors/Broncos game. Home team led 12-6 at the break, tied up at 12-12 for most of the second half until a Stacey Jones field goal sneaked the Warriors home. We didn't care about who won as we we covered the total by 17.5pts.
Panthers/Sharks game wasn't on the telly; accounts say Sharks were fully deserving winners after being locked at 12-all at halftime. Dominated possession in the second spell and standoff Adam Dykes set his backline alight. Nice collect; knew the Sharks wouldn't fail three times in a row for me

The Brumbies was possibly a fortunate one that made up a little for the bad beats (Crusaders, Bulls). They were never allowed, by some determined and usually illegal defence from the Stormers, to get their game plan (constant phase after phase attacks with switches of direction) going against the spoiling visitors. At 20-9 and with a Stormer in the sinbin, I expected them to kick away but instead watched on in horror as the Stormers stormed back to lead 25-20 with 13 minutes left. Fortunately, the Brumbies responded brilliantly, maintaining possession and throwing themselves at the tiring Stormers to score two converted tries and two penalties in 10 minutes to get us home.
The Tigers were absolutely AWFUL v the very average Cowboys. No other word for it - although I used many at the time of viewing as the cat sailed across the room

And to cap off a good Saturday/early Sun morning, the Sharks obliterated the Waratahs in South Africa as predicted; too strong up front v depleted, unorganised opposition.
Hope you all had some success, back with a seperate post soon for the final play of the weekend.