Super12/NRL weekend wrap

[Anders]

Roosters 38 Bulldogs 12

Weekend picks:

NRL: 3-1 (75%).
Super 12: 3-2 (60%).
Overall: 6-3 (66.67%).

Season to Date:

Super 12: 11-4 (73.33%).
NRL: 12-9 (57.14%).

Overall: 63.89%

The Roosters victory went almost perfectly to script. The home side had an advantage in possession and position while the Bulldogs missed a number of tackles which eventually cost them. This was a tremendous match between 2 good sides; betting aside - the Bulldogs do have plenty of spirit and ability while the Roosters, if they can minimise errors, are potential title winners.
On the wagering front, it left us 3-1 for the weekend; very pleasing in the tough field of NRL picks. Also takes us above the target mark of the season (56%).
We also had our fifth successive profitable weekend in the Super 12, much to my delight. For the first time this season we played all 5 games - not for the sake of it but because I believed we had value in all 5 matches. We went 3-2 but with an ounce of luck we could have gone 5-0; certainly deserved 4-1. It's unlikely we will play all 5 games again, as I believe the books will improve their odds-making as the season progresses. There's a member in the NCAAB forum named Mistake Finder, and while I don't follow his picks and methodology always, I love his moniker. Because that's what we are all trying to do - find a line where we believe the books have made an error, albeit maybe a very minor one, in setting the line. The Super 12 is not a long season - just seven regular rounds remain before semis and finals - and to be in the position we are at 73.33% makes me determined not to give a cent back to the books. I'm not looking to go on the defensive, just to continue to play wisely.
On that note, some of the sharp-minded among you may have noticed I've not included the Best Bet details here. Reason is; I've decided to scrub them (StD stands at 2-1 Super 12, 1-2 NRL). As I mentioned at the start of the season, I'm strictly (well, 98% of the time) a one unit per play bettor - it's an integral part of my money management plan. I decided to provide a Best Bet option as I know many of you like to play wagers of varying values. But in my world, no one bet is better value than the other - I mean, I intend to win every bet although I know that's realistically ridiculous, but I'm sure you think the same or at least know what I mean. You don't place a wager thinking, well, this one's an outisde chance of paying, unless it's something like a futures bet. So why think one bet is twice as good as another on a spread? Just my theory.
Hope my ramblings haven't driven you all nuts, I'm signing off.
Back in a day or two

 

[boris]

strange philosophy you've got there Anders...

Surely a team that you would consider a great bet at -7 is a better bet at -3...

Whatever works for you, many gamblers believe in level stakes, but it's one thing I certainly can't contemplate for my methods.

Keep up the good work.

[This message has been edited by boris (edited 03-26-2001).]

 

[Anders]

Possibly a misunderstanding on this one Boris...

What I mean is I don't place a higher value on, say, Raiders @ -4.5 v Cowboys, than I would say Sharks +6.5 v Broncos.
Certainly, seek the best line you can on each match-up but what I was trying to explain was that I wouldn't see the Raiders covering being twice as good a bet (or only half as good) as the Sharks covering in their game. Because I was playng them both, I'd be expecting them both to win and had seen equally good value in both bets.

As you say, one unit per play isn't for everyone: I'm content with being a grinder as I find it best for results and my sanity

But if you have a system that works for you and is making you money, then that's obviously sound management too.

Thanx for the feedback mate.



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I saw the best minds of my generation destroyed by March Madness ...

 

[AzRusty]

Thanks for the right ups Anders.

I have been following your plays. I only played the Sharks pick but as you know it was a winner.

I'm not an experienced player. Not a big wagerer. Not even sports knowledgeable and especially not about rugby.

Thanks for the winning play. As before I tried to best match what I could find at my book (Olympic) with your plays and point spreads. It worked THIS time.

Thanks for your hard work. And thanks for letting me tag along for a little cash!

AzRusty

 

[boris]

Fair philosophy is you stick to lines/spreads, I suppose but still questionable to moi....

Only times I venture into odds-on are usually golf matchups (since they're usually chosen by the bookies, they rarely have players listed at better than evens), and in F1. For tennis, I stick to being choosy with the outsiders.

My stakes are usually varied because I'm not consistently taking 10/11 etc. But if I liked Wests to win vs Brisbane at 4/1 for example, then it would be a small 'value' play rather than a standard bet size on a 'cert' like Bulldogs to beat Nth Qld....