Superb Owl XXX

Smitty

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Is Smitty bad with Roman Numerals? Or is there some porn in here? Click to see!!

And, yes, "Superb Owl." Smitty ain't lookin' to get sued.

Alright, figured I may as well get this thread started. As always, comments, questions (preferably football-related), and discussions are welcome.

First, as I mentioned in another thread, the morning of the conference championship games I bet SF -2.5 over KC. The thought was KC was gonna win (duh) and SF would blow out Detroit (Whoops. Didn't happen until the 2nd half.) and the line would get bet up to 3, making Smitty super smart. Oh well.

A few things to get the ball rolling...

I still like SF in this game. Well, to be more specific, I'm still not a believer in KC. And, yes, I bet them at Buffalo and Baltimore. Both bets were against those teams, not ON KC. Let's look at KC's playoff path. First, they played a team from Miami in, what?, -40° temps. And Miami was missing roughly half their starting defense. The Dolphins were beat before they even stepped off the plane. Then they played two teams that have almost zero threat of the forward pass. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are two very solid running backs who should be running the Winged T. Oh, and Buffalo was also missing roughly half of their starting defense.

SF averaged 28.9 pts/game, 3rd in the league. During the regular season, KC only played 5 games against teams in the top 12 in scoring offense. They went 1-4 in those games, with the one win over Miami in Germany.

KC's good defensive #s were mostly put up against mediocre offenses.

SF obviously has a very prolific offense. The weak link, and the great unknown going into this game... Brock Purdy. There have certainly been some signs to indicate this game may be too big for him. He was terrible against Baltimore, and less-than-stellar in the playoffs. They do have the run game to take pressure off him, and KC is vulnerable against the run. That said, you never know if Shanahan will learn from John Harbaugh's mistake and run, run, run against KC.

Shanahan is another glaring weakness for SF. He has proven 3 times now I think that he doesn't understand he needs to USE that excellent ground game with a lead in the 4th quarter. You can make an argument for balance earlier in the game. They have a ton of weapons and you want to make sure they stay involved in the game. But you have a strength that lines up with the opponent's weakness, AND that reduces the load on your own weakness.

One last thing before I forget... the kicking game. SF decided they could part ways with Robbie Gould, despite the fact that he only made 68 of 68 kicks in the playoffs in his career. Rookie Moody was mediocre this year, making 14 of 18 over 29 yards. And he has missed a FG in each of his last 3 games, all under 50 yards. Even with the perfect conditions in the dome, Moody is questionable.

Plenty more to come...
 

Morris

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Just flip a coin....
Anyway we went to Sabor Azteca tonight and it was really good. Guac was some of the best I've had and the Aztec Fajitas were awesome!!
 

Smitty

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Just flip a coin....
Anyway we went to Sabor Azteca tonight and it was really good. Guac was some of the best I've had and the Aztec Fajitas were awesome!!
Nice! If I recall correctly, you were not impressed the first time you went.

One of these days we'll check it out.
 

Smitty

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Quick update... sounds like a good chance Toney won't play (a plus for KC) and Thuney also won't play (a negative for KC).
 
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Scrapman

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quote "SF averaged 28.9 pts/game, 3rd in the league. During the regular season, KC only played 5 games against teams in the top 12 in scoring offense. They went 1-4 in those games, with the one win over Miami in Germany."
also major injury KC pro bowl LG is out using rookie back up who i think didn't play a game in po's

those stats are not available for line backers O line etc...
 

Smitty

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Couple more thoughts and WAY too many props.

Guess we won't know until tomorrow if Toney is going to play. Joe Thuney is officially out. McKinnon has been activated off IR, but is still questionable. I wonder if he'll essentially take Toney's roster spot.

Very concerning that SFs defense was called out for not playing hard in the NFC championship game. If you're not going all-out in a conference championship game, are you really going to flip that switch in the SB? Maybe Wilks just doesn't get them prepared like Ryans did.

Obviously Purdy throwing some picks is a concern, but KC only picked off 8 passes all year. Only 2 teams had fewer.

Surprisingly, Purdy's #s away from home were a lot better than Mahomes'. Away from home, Purdy threw 18 TDs and 4 INTs. Mahomes threw 12 TDs and 8 INTs.

Can we just skip ahead to the 2nd half? Assuming the game is still close, I really want to see how this is going to play out. KC struggles mightily to score in the 2nd half. But Shanahan has a distinguished history of blowing leads in the 4th quarter of big games.

Maybe the best bet.... if the trailing team is within 10 points in the 4th quarter, bet them on the ML.

Ok, in addition to SF -2.5 (4.7 to win 4), here's what I'm betting.

KC 1H (+.5) 4.6 to win 4. KC has been much better in the 1H.
KC 1H TT under (10.5) 11.5 to win 10.
SF TT over (23.5) 6 to win 5
Parlay SF ML & under 51.5 5 to win 8.7

Each team to score a TD in each half (No) 2.5 to win 2
KC total TDs in 2H under (1.5) 3.2 to win 2
Mahomes under (25.5) completions 6.5 to win 5
Both teams to score in 3rd Quarter (No) 5.8 to win 4
3rd Quarter is lowest scoring quarter 4 to win 8.4
A scoreless quarter (Yes) 2 to win 6.8
Both teams to have lead in 4th quarter (Yes) 4 to win 10.6
Karlaftis over (.25) sacks 4 to win 4.4
Deebo Samuel to have longest rush 4 to win 36 (this was bet down from +1500)
Longest FG over 47.5 yards (Yes) 2.5 to win 2
Purdy 1st Completion (over) 10.5 yards 4.2 to win 4
Mahomes 1st Completion (under) 8.5 yards 5 to win 4
SF first drive score 2 to win 2
SF first drive to cross KC 20 2 to win 2.7
SF most trips into opponent's red zone 2.3 to win 2
Both teams to have the lead in 2H 2 to win 2.6

These are for our friend Luigi, who is definitely NOT watching the game. DK has these listed under the heading "for the Swifties."

Purdy 250 yards and 2+ TDs 2 to win 4
KC to trail in 4th quarter and win the game 4 to win 20
SF to win and rush for 200+ yards 2 to win 12
 
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Smitty

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Well, apparently the only lesson Shanahan has learned after blowing 3 postseason games in the same manner is that he needs to abandon the run earlier in the game. If he'd just hire someone to call plays for him in the 2nd half of postseason games, SF will be hard to beat.

I have no idea how nobody in that organization (GM? Owner?) has sat Shanahan down and said "Run the fucking ball in the 2nd half with the lead. especially when you have Christian Fucking McCaffrey."

Thank god for all those props. KC to trail in the 4th quarter and win the game at +500 was a gift.

Didn't realize KC had 5 fumbles (5!!) but only lost the one. SF had 2, but lost them both. And somehow that makes Andy Reid the greatest football coach in history or some shit.

Missed extra point... punt off a guy's leg... horrible 2nd half play calling... and the better team (not even close) lost.
 
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rob22278

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Well, apparently the only lesson Shanahan has learned after blowing 3 postseason games in the same manner is that he needs to abandon the run earlier in the game. If he'd just hire someone to call plays for him in the 2nd half of postseason games, SF will be hard to beat.

I have no idea how nobody in that organization (GM? Owner?) has sat Shanahan down and said "Run the fucking ball in the 2nd half with the lead. especially when you have Christian Fucking McCaffrey."

Thank god for all those props. KC to trail in the 4th quarter and win the game at +500 was a gift.

Didn't realize KC had 5 fumbles (5!!) but only lost the one. SF had 2, but lost them both. And somehow that makes Andy Reid the greatest football coach in history or some shit.

Missed extra point... punt off a guy's leg... horrible 2nd half play calling... and the better team (not even close) lost.
Don’t forget Greenlaw tearing his Achilles on the fucking sideline
 
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