superbowl play....

AR182

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u 49 bears/colts....

i really like this play.

i funded my account with olympic earlier this week so i can have a rooting interest in the game.

here's why i like the under....

both head coaches are primarily defensive coaches who like to play cover 2 defenses where they try to keep everything in front of them.so i think either team will have to have long drives to score.

i think lovie doesn't want to get into a shootout with indy because there is a huge mismatch at qb.so i think chicago will try to shorten the game & use up most of the play clock before taking a snap.chicago's game will be primarily running plays with short passes...again trying to keep peyton off the field as much as possible.

i know indy had a huge offensive showing in the 2nd half against the pats, but their offense is not as explosive as past additions.on grass the indy offense averages 23.9 points per game. that's about 4-5 points per game less than they average in a dome.

bob sanders.....indy kept sanders out of games (injury) at the end of the season to have him ready for the playoffs. and his presence in the playoffs has made their defense play very well.and although n.e. scored 34 points last week, they only gained about 315 total yards....with one td coming on a pick 6 & 2 scores were set up by long kickoffs.

here is a system pertaining to this play....

play under - any team where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points (indy) - after allowing 30 points or more last game against opponent after 2 straight games where 50 total points or more were scored.

since 1983 the ats record is 63-28....69.2%

i'll be in vegas for the superbowl & i will add more to this play if i see the total going up since i capped this game at 44-45 total points.

good luck & enjoy the game.
 

ThrowinPicks

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I think this is the bet of the superbowl right here and I'll be on it with you, possibly heavy. We all know that more effective defensive adjustments can be made during the two week layoff than on the offensive side. Plus, both championship games flew over the total.

GL man.
 

AR182

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additional thought on the game...

i think i mentioned this before but this superbowl reminds me so much of the game between the giants & buffalo bills in the 1991 superbowl....

that game had the line at buff.(indy)-7 also...a high powered off with a weak rushing defense.....

against the giants(chicago)a team with a strong running attack with a questionable qb & a strong defense.....

that game had the total at 40.5 points...final total score in that game was 39 points.

as i mentioned in the above post, i don't think that lovie feels that his team can match points with indy's high powered offense...so i think he may try to slow the game down...similar to what parcells did against the bills....which would limit indy's possessions.
 

Blackman

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additional thought on the game...

i think i mentioned this before but this superbowl reminds me so much of the game between the giants & buffalo bills in the 1991 superbowl....

that game had the line at buff.(indy)-7 also...a high powered off with a weak rushing defense.....

against the giants(chicago)a team with a strong running attack with a questionable qb & a strong defense.....

that game had the total at 40.5 points...final total score in that game was 39 points.

as i mentioned in the above post, i don't think that lovie feels that his team can match points with indy's high powered offense...so i think he may try to slow the game down...similar to what parcells did against the bills....which would limit indy's possessions.


I've heard this comparison, and agree with it on some levels, but Mike Francessa made what I thought was a valid point today on this subject. The Giants in Super Bowl XXV were able to control the ball completely, held it for over 40 minutes, and I'm not sure the Bears can do the same.

I also think the two week layoff (as opposed to one in Super Bowl XXV) plays to the favorites advantage, as they can get everything in order with the extra time. But with all this being said, I still lean to the Bears as a play.

Good luck and thanks for the info all year.
 

AR182

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my pleasure blackman...

here is something i got from another forum...

I was looking into previous superbowls and previous lines in them and there were 7 times in SB history that the line was -7.

2005 NE -7
2004 NE -7
2000 STL -7
1992 Wash -7
1991 Buffalo -7
1989 SF -7
1976 Pittsburgh -7

In those SB's, favorites 6-1 SU (only Buffalo lost) but only
1-5-1 ATS.

-6 or -6.5
4 times in SB history, each time the favorite won SU and ATS.

-7.5 through -10
2 times in SB history, each time the favorite won SU and ATS.

Looks like if it stays at -7, SB history is leaning towards CHI to cover but Indy to win outright.

Overall in SB history the favorite is 21-17-2 ATS ( I did this manually, and almost positive it's right), since 1996 the favorite is 3-6-2 ATS.

Since 1985, no team less than 8th in reg. season scoring defense (points allowed) has won a SB.

In 2006, Scoring defense...
3. CHI
23. Indy

I even went back further to 1972, Superbowl VII, (unfortunately I couldn't find defensive team stats before that) and the highest scoring defense that won a SB was the Oakland Raiders in 1984 , they were 13th in scoring defense. (points allowed)
 

IntenseOperator

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Got to believe the Bears will try to take something from whatever success Houston and Tennessee had defensively against the Colts offense.

BOL AR
 
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AR182

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thanks guys....

Indianapolis Colts vs. Chicago Bears
Super Bowl XLI (CBS | 6:30 PM ET)

* The Bears are feeding off their role as underdogs in the Super Bowl, and they have no issues proving they belong here and can win the biggest game of the year. "Anytime you're in an underdog role, you're that much more intense and focused and out for respect," said Chicago QB Rex Grossman, who may go down as the most scrutinized player in Super Bowl history due to his erratic play. AFC teams may have dominated their NFC counterparts during the regular season, but the Bears went 2-2, including a tough 17-13 loss at New England. EDGE: BEARS

* While Grossman is at an obvious disadvantage against Indy counterpart Peyton Manning, insiders believe the key to this game will simply be turnovers. In Chicago's three losses this season, Grossman turned the ball over 12 times, with three interceptions and one fumble in each of those games. If he limits his turnovers and the Bears play up to their potential on defense and special teams, a straight-up win is not only possible, it's likely. EDGE: BEARS IF GOOD REX PLAYS, COLTS IF BAD REX PLAYS

* Teams without a scoring defense ranked in the Top 8 at the end of the regular season have never won the Super Bowl. Indy ranked 23rd - allowing 22.5 points per game - while Chicago finished third. Even though Indy safety Bob Sanders has improved the team's run defense dramatically when he has played, the team does not play an opportunistic style and force many turnovers, creating just 32 compared to 47 for the Bears. BIG EDGE: BEARS

* Some experts - along with the betting public - feel Manning finally has the monkey off his back of "failing to win the big game" and will thrive on the big stage in his first opportunity to win the Super Bowl. If anybody is due to win a championship, it's him. He never beat archrival Florida in college and has been linked to former Miami QB Dan Marino because of his statistical dominance yet lack of a title. Ironically, Manning may have more pressure on him to win this game than Grossman, but the public doesn't seem too worried. EDGE: COLTS

* No touchdowns have been scored in the first quarter of the last five Super Bowls, and just 22 points total have been scored in the last seven combined. Nerves have definitely played a huge role early on as the two teams feel each other out offensively and defensively. BIG EDGE: UNDER

* Chicago was a much better road team during the regular season, going 7-1 SU away from Soldier Field. Indy was 4-4, snapping a four-game road skid with an impressive 15-6 victory at Baltimore in the divisional round of the playoffs. The grass surface in Miami also favors the Bears because the Colts offense is much more explosive on the fast track of turf. EDGE: BEARS
 

gjn23

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427 vs 427

what is that you ask?

total points scored this year for chicago and indy (tied for 2nd in the nfl)

can we please stop with the myth that the bears are inept and cant score? i heard it all last week as well despite the fact the the bears outscored the aints on the year.

would the beard prefer to have the game in the 20's.....of course......can the bears win if the game is in the 30's...why not?
 

gjn23

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the bears will never win this game if the score is in the 30's....but that's just my opinion.

if the bears have to come from behind to win in the 30's you are correct.....if they play tied or ahead and score at will vs the colts the very well can win in the 30's.......however, my opinion is if the bears score in the 30's (and they might) the colts wont be in the 30's as well.
 
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