Tourney: 25-24 +$1,530
What a sweet, Sweet16 slate we have tonight!
Michigan +5 220/200
Rematch of the 2018 title game, although the only thing that remains is Jay Wright (was Brandon Johns still at Michigan?)? Always difficult to fade Nova at this point in the tournament as Wright seems to have his team peaking at the right time. The problem: I feel Michigan is peaking, too, and has the higher ceiling. Their pre-season ranking (which I know does not always play out/you shouldn't put too much weight into) seems to be coming to fruition. Should be a tightly contested game throughout as Nova rarely makes many mistakes in a game of this caliber and I expect Michigan to bring their A-game. A contrast of best players (Gillespie vs Dickinson) will take place and although college is still a guard's game, Dickinson should be able to dictate more than his fair share, here.
Arkansas +9.5 440/400
Arkansas ML 100/350
Arkansas +5.5 1st half 330/300
Arkansas ML 1st half 100/225
Zaga makes, even me, all googily-eyed, especially when I watch Chester. That dude is a taller version of KD (yes, he needs to get better offensively, but the tools are there, and he is LIGHT YEARS better on the defensive end). But I will reference the one other game that Zaga played against a similar team to Arkansas this year (Alabama) as for why I love the Hogs. I know it was early in the year, but Bama is almost a carbon copy of the Hogs and they beat Zaga by 9. Ironically, this line has been at 9 all week (jumped to 9.5 within last 12 hours). Yes, the Hogs will need to hit 3s (welcome to modern-day college ball; Bama hit 13), and yes, they are smaller than Zaga (Bama was, too), but where there's a will, there's a way, and you know Muss will have his players more ready than ever for this one. All the pressure is on the Zags(Hogs have nothing to lose) and that cooker looked almost ready to pop in the round of 32. That top is poppin tonight!
Houston +1.5 220/200
This line seems to scream take Zona, which is maybe why I'm not. Houston has become a fixture in recent years before running into a team that finally blows their candle out(expectedly). They play in a conference that doesn't seem to get much pub (outside of the local broadcast), have next to 0 Mcd's AA/top rated recruits, yet make other big-name brands look kinda silly come tournament time. The difference in this game, to me, is Kelvin Sampson. Tommy Lloyd has done an AMAZING job in year 1 replacing Sean Miller (how the hell is Zona eligible for the NCAA any time this next decade is for another conversation). Lloyd basically recreated Zaga at a power5 conference in short order, but I don't trust his coaching chops in a tight game. Zona should have been bounced by TCU if the refs didn't decide to eat their whistles on an obvious foul call at the end of regulation and Lloyd got massively outcoached by Jamie Dixon (no shame in that). Sampson is on par/better than Dixon and 5 days won't change Lloyd. Gimme Cougs in a 1 pt game (68-67).
Duke +1 440/400
I know, Texas Tech is #1 in defense in the country. I know, Duke hasn't played a team like this maybe all year or at least in the last couple months. I know, all the pressure is on Duke (or is it). I know, Duke has not won anything when having to play on the west coast. I know, I know, I know...and I don't care. Saw something against Sparty in the last 5 min of that game that I hadn't seen all year (Paolo Banchero play actual defense---I know, IT WAS SHOCKING). Until that point, it felt like we were watching a repeat of 2019 when the same Sparty team bested a freshmen-laden Duke team lead by Zion/RJ/Cam that played O'le defense, too...and then it all changed. This, to me, is the biggest problem with trying to rely on freshmen to win---don't want to say they don't care, but to a lot of them, I don't think they know how to care, yet. Maybe it was a one-time deal and Duke just lays down tonight, with the Red Raiders rolling them, but I don't see it. At the same time with all the jargon I referenced above, Texas Tech hasn't played a team like Duke this year, either. Games aren't played on paper, but Duke is the most talented team in NCAA (is it a question?). And K, is still K. T Tech is a great team, and I'm hoping for a great game, here; just think the Blue Devils will prevail and K will get 1 more game (or more).
Definitely some 2nd halves coming, tonight.
GL All!
What a sweet, Sweet16 slate we have tonight!
Michigan +5 220/200
Rematch of the 2018 title game, although the only thing that remains is Jay Wright (was Brandon Johns still at Michigan?)? Always difficult to fade Nova at this point in the tournament as Wright seems to have his team peaking at the right time. The problem: I feel Michigan is peaking, too, and has the higher ceiling. Their pre-season ranking (which I know does not always play out/you shouldn't put too much weight into) seems to be coming to fruition. Should be a tightly contested game throughout as Nova rarely makes many mistakes in a game of this caliber and I expect Michigan to bring their A-game. A contrast of best players (Gillespie vs Dickinson) will take place and although college is still a guard's game, Dickinson should be able to dictate more than his fair share, here.
Arkansas +9.5 440/400
Arkansas ML 100/350
Arkansas +5.5 1st half 330/300
Arkansas ML 1st half 100/225
Zaga makes, even me, all googily-eyed, especially when I watch Chester. That dude is a taller version of KD (yes, he needs to get better offensively, but the tools are there, and he is LIGHT YEARS better on the defensive end). But I will reference the one other game that Zaga played against a similar team to Arkansas this year (Alabama) as for why I love the Hogs. I know it was early in the year, but Bama is almost a carbon copy of the Hogs and they beat Zaga by 9. Ironically, this line has been at 9 all week (jumped to 9.5 within last 12 hours). Yes, the Hogs will need to hit 3s (welcome to modern-day college ball; Bama hit 13), and yes, they are smaller than Zaga (Bama was, too), but where there's a will, there's a way, and you know Muss will have his players more ready than ever for this one. All the pressure is on the Zags(Hogs have nothing to lose) and that cooker looked almost ready to pop in the round of 32. That top is poppin tonight!
Houston +1.5 220/200
This line seems to scream take Zona, which is maybe why I'm not. Houston has become a fixture in recent years before running into a team that finally blows their candle out(expectedly). They play in a conference that doesn't seem to get much pub (outside of the local broadcast), have next to 0 Mcd's AA/top rated recruits, yet make other big-name brands look kinda silly come tournament time. The difference in this game, to me, is Kelvin Sampson. Tommy Lloyd has done an AMAZING job in year 1 replacing Sean Miller (how the hell is Zona eligible for the NCAA any time this next decade is for another conversation). Lloyd basically recreated Zaga at a power5 conference in short order, but I don't trust his coaching chops in a tight game. Zona should have been bounced by TCU if the refs didn't decide to eat their whistles on an obvious foul call at the end of regulation and Lloyd got massively outcoached by Jamie Dixon (no shame in that). Sampson is on par/better than Dixon and 5 days won't change Lloyd. Gimme Cougs in a 1 pt game (68-67).
Duke +1 440/400
I know, Texas Tech is #1 in defense in the country. I know, Duke hasn't played a team like this maybe all year or at least in the last couple months. I know, all the pressure is on Duke (or is it). I know, Duke has not won anything when having to play on the west coast. I know, I know, I know...and I don't care. Saw something against Sparty in the last 5 min of that game that I hadn't seen all year (Paolo Banchero play actual defense---I know, IT WAS SHOCKING). Until that point, it felt like we were watching a repeat of 2019 when the same Sparty team bested a freshmen-laden Duke team lead by Zion/RJ/Cam that played O'le defense, too...and then it all changed. This, to me, is the biggest problem with trying to rely on freshmen to win---don't want to say they don't care, but to a lot of them, I don't think they know how to care, yet. Maybe it was a one-time deal and Duke just lays down tonight, with the Red Raiders rolling them, but I don't see it. At the same time with all the jargon I referenced above, Texas Tech hasn't played a team like Duke this year, either. Games aren't played on paper, but Duke is the most talented team in NCAA (is it a question?). And K, is still K. T Tech is a great team, and I'm hoping for a great game, here; just think the Blue Devils will prevail and K will get 1 more game (or more).
Definitely some 2nd halves coming, tonight.
GL All!
