Swimming Upsteam wk.8

[spang]

YTD: 54-60 -9.00

I thought last week was the best I have seen going into it and fully expected a big, big week to get me back into the black Didn't happen, only won about 4 units.

Just a couple of the openers grabbed me this week.

Western Mich -4' 6 units

This is one I like very much.

Really surprised by this line. Western is a far, far better offensive team than the Bulls and if they stay away from some of the stupid errors that plagued them earlier, I thnk they win this one by double digits.
I've seen both teams play a couple of times this year and this Buffalo team is a far cry from the team that won the MAC last year. I simply believe that they can't keep up.The Bulls defense has played fairly well but Hiller and West offer a balanced attack that will keep the Bulls D on their heels. Buffalo was very fortunate to defeat a now 1-5 Akron at home last week. This is a much tougher spot for the Bulls, the last time they hit the road they were drilled by a very average Temple team.



Toledo +1 3 units

I have no idea why Temple is the early fav. here but I do not expect it to last. The Owls have fattend up at home vs. the bottom feeders of the MAC and Army as of late There is really not one thing on their resume that impresses me other than I do like Golden a bit. The Rockets come into this one with a pretty impressive win over a decent NIU team in a game that I very much under estimated them. Not again.
Toledo has a damn good passing game but it is their defense that really impressed me against the Huskies.
They held them down to just a little over 300 yds which represents vast improvement over some of their earlier efforts.

The key to this play is keeping an eye on the Rockets QB situation. Opelt, who is one of the leagues best, missed last week with a bruised throwing shoulder. If that was not bad enough his backup, Austin Dantin went down with an injury late in the NIU game. Dantin has played very well in Opelt's absence. I fully expect to get some news on this sutuation but as of now I believe Opelt should be ready to go.

If I knew right now that Opelt would be at QB for sure, this would be a pretty big play. I'll keep it reasonable for now.

Keeping an eye on Kent St., Eastern Mich, Central Mich and Pitt. They all look attractive but need to dig a little deeper. I'm thinking of just sitting on these two to get me out of the red.

 

[Mr. Poon]

Spang - the Western Michigan line jumped out at me when looking at MAC lines. Tempted by Ohio as well as I think they can win by a couple TD's. I've been on them the last 4 weeks though, so a little worried about going to the well too much. Any insight into that one?

GL this week.

 

[hawkeye]

This is your BIG week--GL--like WMich alot also

 

[hawkeye]

Spang--Give me your input on C Mich--I am leaning thier way this week. Thanks.

 

[Skipper]

Spang - I like W. Mich. but going heavy on them scares me a little based on their up and down performance thus far. It has been a weird season so far, got off to a bad start and have been chipping since and will post again this week, but want to hit this one hard, just cannot seem to pull the trigger on this team.

GL buddy

 

[Skipper]

Spang--Give me your input on C Mich--I am leaning thier way this week. Thanks.

Agreed Hawkeye - this team hasn't missed a beat since Kelly left. A little down year last year, but looked good all year this year to me

 

[#cruncher]

Onboard with the WMU play...really like it...you sumed it up best. Will check out Toledo further...if they've started playing D...look out.

 

[LDB]

gl this week spang:toast:

 

[ces]

Don't know much about EMi, but I do know BSU is a mess. Page doubtful and his backup looked horrible. And if he gets hurt, Parrish said the 3d stringer is NOT ready. He said they would go straight wildcat. Even if Page plays, I think he'll be far from effective. I'd also look hard at the under.

 

[spang]

Thanks to all for the comments.

Poon, I'd be careful. Kent has come a long way of late. They have renewed their running game with Terry and Keith has been effecient at QB. The Flashes know that this is a game that they must have and I expect a closer game that the line indicates.I still have trouble believing that OU has the record they do.

I agree somewhat with CMU. In the MAC this year, there is CMU then there is a large step down to everybody else. This will be a good test for them because BG stays in every game with the exception of Boise. They have been just like last years team in that they are in a postion to win nearly every game but make one or two key mistakes. Another worry for the Chipps is trying to stop the amazing combo of Sheehan to Barnes. Pull up their last couple of boxscores and you will see what I mean.
If the Chipps are to stumble, this may be the spot.

Skip, I know that you are aware that the Bronc's owe me some serious money. I over estimated them early in the season and it cost me. I think that the are showing signs of playing much better ball and this is the spot to get my cash back on them. Buffalo is just not a very good team and their QB forces a lot of bad balls that get picked.

I think that EMU + is very tempting, going to go one unit on EMU +3


The Toledo line has moved 4 pts since I played them but still think there is some value there. I dug up some stuff on Opelt written by a guy who sends me some good stiff via email. His info was right on the money last week. I will get a better report by friday. Dantin won't play for sure with his high ankle sprain so if Opelt can't go the job goes to the 3rd stringer Alex Pettee.

The following from the Toledo Blade:

"Opelt said he "got quite a few throws in" yesterday on the team's off day and is listed as probable to play this week against Temple.

"[Yesterday] wasn't the first time I've thrown, but it's the first time I've successfully thrown [since the injury occurred]," Opelt said. "[Yesterday] was the first day it actually felt pretty good."

Asked if he was still experiencing pain in his shoulder, Opelt didn't say.

"We're good to go," Opelt said. "If I have to throw, I can throw."

I'll have more as the week goes on.

 

[spang]

Good eye ces.

Ball St/ EMU under 47' for 5 units.

Looks very strong.

 

[hawkeye]

Thaks for the info/insight--I am playing W Mich -4'--think you are right on this game.

 

[AR182]

Good eye ces.

Ball St/ EMU under 47' for 5 units.

Looks very strong.

took that also....good luck this weekend....

 

[Cie]

If the Chipps are to stumble, this may be the spot.

I'm counting on it In a week where I do not feel I have a good feel for the card, BG+8 looks like a definite play for me. GL

 

[Mr. Poon]

Poon, I'd be careful. Kent has come a long way of late. They have renewed their running game with Terry and Keith has been effecient at QB. The Flashes know that this is a game that they must have and I expect a closer game that the line indicates.I still have trouble believing that OU has the record they do.

Spang - thanks for the insight. I've been bullish on Ohio from the start of the season. Just thought they were head and shoulders above the other East squads, even though it is obvious it is the weaker division. Double digits is tough to pull the trigger on though, and I will likely stay away.

Thanks again man and gl this week.

 

[spang]

Sheehan to Barnes in just the LAST TWO GAMES:

Receptions : 22

Yards : 438

TDs: 6

Just smokin' hot. I'm sure the Chipps are quite aware and will design some schemes to stop them, but can they?? That seems to be the biggest question in this game. BG must be prepared to exploit other holes in CMU's defense if they double down on him, and they would be crazy not to. What bothers me is that BG can't run it at all so Wright and the other receivers better be ready to step it up.


CMU is certainly not invincible. Western took it to them pretty good last week and actually controlled much of the game. Now the Chipps go right back out on the road. Also to be noted is that CMU has a huge date with BC next week. I know that the game doesn't mean squat but any time a MAC school has a decent shot of taking down a power conference its a pretty big deal.They have to have that on their minds a bit.

All and all, it looks to be a fairly nice spot for the Falcons.

BG +8 two units

 

[spang]

Spang - thanks for the insight. I've been bullish on Ohio from the start of the season. Just thought they were head and shoulders above the other East squads, even though it is obvious it is the weaker division. Double digits is tough to pull the trigger on though, and I will likely stay away.

Thanks again man and gl this week.

Poon, don't let me talk you out of it. OU is capable of controlling this one on the ground and Kent has a tendency to shoot themselves in the foot. That all could very well happen. The Bobcats have a trip to pathetic Ball St next week so they can keep their focus on the Flashes which aids their cause as well.The freaking East is so weak that the Bobcats just may continue to dominate. I expected more from Akron and BG.

I'm just letting you know that this game means a lot to Kent and they are treating it as such. Kent has done a very nice job of replacing Jarvis, Keith is starting to come around at QB and they have a pretty good set of LBs. The key for the Flashes is playing a clean game, if they can just cut their penalties and mistakes they can be pretty decent at times. Ten points just seems like a lot to me in this situation.

More than likely a pass for me as I have trouble betting a mistake prone team Like Kent St. Their performance is very difficult to predict from week to week so I just can't get a genuine feel for the team.

Good luck if you play the Bobcats because my hate for kent State knows no bounds.

 

[Irish]

Spang.... "Talk to me goose" I am looking at the BG/C.Mich game and the Falcons at home with a decent football team playing the conference fav and getting more than a TD.. looks like value. However I need your MAC attack on how the Chipps looked last week. I missed it and I wonder if they are hitting their stride and playing decent enough football. They have the better tealent but are they playing like it is my question.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Cie]

Spang.... "Talk to me goose" I am looking at the BG/C.Mich game and the Falcons at home with a decent football team playing the conference fav and getting more than a TD.. looks like value. However I need your MAC attack on how the Chipps looked last week. I missed it and I wonder if they are hitting their stride and playing decent enough football. They have the better telent but are they playing like it is my question.

Cheers
Irish

Irish, I do not know much about MAC football(particularly compared to Spang), but like you am aware of the talent gap b/w these teams. All I have read points to CMU taking last week's game very seriously. There appears to be a sense of accomplishment on the part of the seniors, who have now defeated WMich 4 straight seasons. CMU now plays 2nd straight on the road with a big game @ BC on deck. Throw out their annual beating at the hands of Boise, and BG has played well offensively at home. Seems like a perfect spot to back the dog, so I did:SIB

GL:weed:

 

[spang]

Spang.... "Talk to me goose" I am looking at the BG/C.Mich game and the Falcons at home with a decent football team playing the conference fav and getting more than a TD.. looks like value. However I need your MAC attack on how the Chipps looked last week. I missed it and I wonder if they are hitting their stride and playing decent enough football. They have the better tealent but are they playing like it is my question.

Cheers
Irish

Hi Irish,

I did not see or listen to the game but I did follow parts of it on the drive charts and play by play.
If not for the final minute and change of the first half Western may well have won it. The Chipps scored a TD with just over a minute in the first half. Then they intercepted Hiller on the next possession and returned it to insiide the WMU 5 yard line. They punched it in and that was pretty much the ball game.

The stats point to some rather disturbing events for the Chipps. First off, they were 1 for 9 on third down conversions. Second, they got torched through the air for 400 + yards. That is the stat in particular that really bodes well for BG. Hiller went 40 for 66 for 400 + yds and 2 TDs. If they think that they will get a little break from that kind of passing attack they are nuts. Sheehan will be throwing all of the time and may produce similar numbers except with more TDs.

In fact Western dominated nearly every offensive stat except rushing yards and the score. it's almost a given that they will have a very significant edge on the ground again. It also bothers me that they were outyarded against Buffalo on the road as well. So lately it appears that they need some work at defending the pass and I think that Central can be defeated on the road.