Syracuse/Nova Total

[johnnyonthespot]

Looking for some thoughts on this, but 145 seems about 5 points too high to me. Both teams play pretty solid D; with Nova holding opponents to 39.3% overall on the road (a scant 27.9% from behind the arc) while 'Cuse holds opponents to 40.1% overall (31.6% from 3) at home. Just can't see both teams shooting lights out all game, which is what it will take IMO for this game to reach this total. I could easily see both teams shooting between 41%-43% and a total of around 70-65. I think there's enough padding in this number to be safe from the inevitable foul fest at the end. Also think the number is inflated because of the high point total for Cuse's last home game against ND. But ND is not known for their defense, particularly on the road.

Thoughts appreciated.

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Also adding Fresno St./Rice over 130.

This one seems about 4-5 points too low IMO. Rice has played very good ball lately, but the one thing they have not done is played good D. Their last 5 games they have allowed opponents to shoot an average of 52%, and 3 of those games were at home. Their last 3 games, all at home, they've given up 76, 75, and 103 (and they've won all those games!). Granted the 103 points was a double OT affair (against Tulsa) but the score was tied at 78 at the end of regulation. Overall, Rice gives up an average of 67 points at home, and that's right what Fresno averages on the road. Just really see at least one of these teams hitting 70 tonight and unless we have a 70-50 blowout, this one should find its way over with about 3-4 minutes to spare.

This play and the Nova/Cuse under each for 2 units and a parlay for 1 unit.

 

[Chain Saw]

Thanks fpr your writeup Johnny. I'm going to ride your coattails on the under for the Syr/Nova game.

Good Luck to ya.
Chain Saw

 

[bosco]

Johnny,

I was about to jump on the over for Rice as well until I realized that Pettis is out for Fresno State. When these teams went at it in January, the total ended up at 128...but that was with Pettis being the high scorer at 22 pts. The next highest scorer for Fresno was at 13 pts.

Its under or pass IMO.

I like the side at -8 alot better.

Good luck

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Thanks Bosco; did not realize that. I will ride this one out, though (but will not put another 2 units down like I was going to). In actuality I see Rice scoring 80 tonight, so as long as Fresno can get to 50 I think I'll be alright. Like you mentioned; the total for these two last time only hit 128, and that's a reason why I think it's a bit too low now.

It's strange to say, but on some level I actually feel a little better knowing that Pettis is out. I always get really nervous when a line looks way off to me and I don't know why. Now at least I know why the line is where it is.

Like Rice -8, too. Will probably play that as well since the only way I see this not going over is if Rice gets way ahead early and then just coasts.

Rice -8 for 1 unit

Thanks for the info!

 

[Chain Saw]

Johnny

Thanks for your post on the Nova total. You nailed it.

Chain Saw

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Thanks chainsaw - looks like you picked the right one to follow me on.