Each Friday I log on to Scoresandodds.com to look at the line movement. I look at three things:
1. What the line opened at
2. What the initial line movement was
3. And lastly where the line is currently
What I hjave come up w/ is the following:
Lets use this weeks only play as an example: Wake Forest +1.5
Wake Forest opened as a 2 point favorite. Since then the line has moved as follows:
WF went to 3 then down to 2.5, 1.5, 1, X, BC 1 then BC 1.5 where it sits currently
My analysis is this: Vegas comes up w/ an opeing # then the sharp money hits it first w/ the initial move. From there the general public (you & me) bets on the # all week moving it accordingly.
For it to qualify as a system play the following line movement needs to happen:
The opening line needs to take a sharp one point move or more for either team like WF from a 2 to 3 point favorite. Then the line needs to move a minimum of 2 points the other way throughout the week as shown above. This system is 9-2 so far this year.
A game earlier this year that sticks out vividly was Duke at Uconn. Uconn opened up as a 14 point favorite. It move to 12 overnight and then by game time it was 15.5 Duke lost by 2.
Feedback is appreciated and as always goodluck w/ whatever you bet
1. What the line opened at
2. What the initial line movement was
3. And lastly where the line is currently
What I hjave come up w/ is the following:
Lets use this weeks only play as an example: Wake Forest +1.5
Wake Forest opened as a 2 point favorite. Since then the line has moved as follows:
WF went to 3 then down to 2.5, 1.5, 1, X, BC 1 then BC 1.5 where it sits currently
My analysis is this: Vegas comes up w/ an opeing # then the sharp money hits it first w/ the initial move. From there the general public (you & me) bets on the # all week moving it accordingly.
For it to qualify as a system play the following line movement needs to happen:
The opening line needs to take a sharp one point move or more for either team like WF from a 2 to 3 point favorite. Then the line needs to move a minimum of 2 points the other way throughout the week as shown above. This system is 9-2 so far this year.
A game earlier this year that sticks out vividly was Duke at Uconn. Uconn opened up as a 14 point favorite. It move to 12 overnight and then by game time it was 15.5 Duke lost by 2.
Feedback is appreciated and as always goodluck w/ whatever you bet
