TAKE MY ADVICE PART 2: PARLAY OF THE YEAR!

[BearDownAZ]

Those of you who took my advice in the last Arizona game made out well so maybe we can do this again. I have looked into this matchup and I see the same result if Arizona wins: the game will go over! Let's check out the season stats for verification:
Arizona-
Average for: 81.6
Average against: 66.0

Michigan State-
Average for: 77.9
Average against: 61.2


Last 5 games for both teams:
Arizona-
Average for: 81.0
Average against: 68.2

Michigan State
Average for: 71.8
Average against: 57.8

What's interesting about these stats is that Michigan State has fallen off their average point total the past five games. . . why? It's OBVIOUS! Free throw shooting! Michigan State averaged 72% for the entire year, but ONLY 64% their past 5 games. Arizona averaged 75% for the year and 78% for the past five games. In a close game, the edge would have to go to Arizona based on free throw shooting. This game should be an absolute battle and I see the offenses on both sides overpowering their opponent's defense. This is very similar to the Illinois matchup, not because MSU is also from the Big Ten, but their style of play.

For those of you playing this game, here are my suggested plays:

Best Bet: Arizona -1 up to -3. . . the numbers don't lie. . . the best teams in the tournament that move on ALWAYS are those that are able to hit key free throws in close games.

2nd best: Arizona/MSU over 143 up to 146. . . the winner either way should have at least 80 points on the board by game's end.

For those who are daring: Parlay the two!

Good luck for those of you taking Michigan State and the under. . . YOU WILL NEED IT! LOL

 

[Senor Capper]

Way too much public money on Arizona
no way to go cept with Michigan State

.......and Duke

 

[BigDog]

I can see Maryland and Arizona both winning. The money bet for or against them is irrelevent except when it comes to the spread. I'd bet on either team if I had to give up 1 to 3 points.

 

[Senor Capper]

go for it

 

[BearDownAZ]

Senor Capper,

The public has been right in many cases this year in the tourney! Also, I don't believe the "public" money is that huge on Arizona. Wagerline.com has the public edge to Arizona 57%-43%. Not THAT much! I believe all of the big money (usually the smart money that moves the lines) is on Arizona.

One final comment. I have followed the lines and results all season long. From what I have remembered, a team that begins as an underdog and turns into the favorite by gametime is usually successful in winning the game. But, I do not have any stats. to back this up.

 

[Senor Capper]

Ok let me clarify.......
Vegas money and lots of it is on Arizona
be it smart money/public money whatever
(not mine)

Ya got Michigan State opening line here at ---1.5
-1
PK
+1
+1.5
some places +2 or better
yes alot of Arizona money there

Truthfully I would love to see Maryland and Arizona............
just won't bet on it

Most of my people are betting moneyline Maryland

Best to all

 

[BearDownAZ]

Senor Capper,

I'm not a fool! I know how the line has changed. . . so what's your point? I just don't see why one should bet Michigan State just because the line is going the other way!

If Wagerline.com is any representation of the public, then the public money is going slightly towards Arizona. . . but it shouldn't have moved the Arizona line by over 3 points!

[This message has been edited by BearDownAZ (edited 03-30-2001).]

 

[The Big Tease]

Personally, I think the game is a toss up, and it depends on a lot of factors that are uncappable, like foul trouble and such. I feel that the team that can benefit and adjust to how the game will be officiated will win the game.

BearAZ, just dont bet with your heart though. I have done it many times, and it just doesnt work. If I had a lean, I lean to Arizona, just because I think these kids think they are destined to win for Olsons wife. Just my opinion...

 

[BearDownAZ]

Big Tease,

I agree which is why I am staying away. . . but I did want to post what I had found and what I would play. If I found info. for betting against Arizona, then I would have posted it just the same!

 

[Senor Capper]

point is.....
I'm "on" Michigan State
going against the majority/dumb $$/public $$
Same with Duke.
No big deal
Nothing to get excited about....
Aint got nothing against Arizona matter of fact I made some decent money off of them against Illinois.
Wagerline don't mean kaakaa to me

Best to all
cept for Az and Maryland
(no offense)

 

[BearDownAZ]

Well Senor Capper,

No offense, but I believe you will be going against the smart money as well, so what does that make you? LOL

 

[Senor Capper]

Originally posted by BearDownAZ:
Well Senor Capper,

No offense, but I believe you will be going against the smart money as well, so what does that make you? LOL

MONEY BABY MONEY

 

[BearDownAZ]

LOL. . . good luck!

 

[Senor Capper]

On a unrelated note

How bout those Lady Irish ?
Wow what a comeback
hope it holds up

 

[BearDownAZ]

Yeah, I'm watching the game as well. . pretty amazing. . . never thought that UCONN would lose that lead, but I was rooting for the Irish too!

 

[JSMOOTH]

Never, never, never...............
bet against a team playing on inspiration!
If you don't like Arizona, then stay off the game.
Good Luck All.

------------------
Hail to the Victors!!

 

[Rick]

Good posts guys and Good Luck to everyone tomorrow but I am playing Mich St. JSMOOTH
I respectfully disagree as to which team is actually playing with more inspiration. Was Arizona's front line so inspired last week that Loren Woods scores his first basket of the game with less than 6 1/2 minutes left, and finishes with 18 points -- 12 from the free-throw line. Became a big-time player just as all (6) of the Illini big men were leaving the game. I read where his teammates were even begging him at halftime just to get involved. Then theres Michael Wright who does not take a shot from the field all game, scores 4 points all from the foul line and has 2 rebounds. Last week Arizona shot 31 more freethrows than Illinois, 31 more free throws, 56 altogether, getting half of their points from the foul line. In that case yes freethrows make a big difference. Arizona shot 48% from the floor, Illinois shot only 40%. Illinois also had 6 frontline players foul out. The Peoria Manual connection of Williams, McClain and Griffin shoot a combined 4 of 26, yet Arizona wins by only 6 points. Illinois played absolutely terrible, stays close, and they are not as good as Michigan St.. Arizona's overrated front line could not stop the 7.2 PPG Robert Archibald from having a career game against them. Big Tease is right about a lot of outside factors come into play in this game but I think Michigan St will be allowed to get more physical with Arizona than Illinois was. They are defending champs and this is a final four game. I believe that the refs let them play here and that is to Michigan States'advantage. I also think they are better defensively, and that their rebounding, coaching, and tougher attitude will enable them to find a way to win. Good Luck to everyone. Mich St**** Opinion on the under* too.

 

[JSMOOTH]

Originally posted by DaMan Sports:
Was Arizona's front line so inspired last week that Loren Woods scores his first basket of the game with less than 6 1/2 minutes left, and finishes with 18 points -- 12 from the free-throw line. Then theres Michael Wright who does not take a shot from the field all game, scores 4 points all from the foul line and has 2 rebounds.
_____________________________________________
Isn't it amazing, that even though these two "star players" struggled, that they STILL managed to knock off the #1 seed?!
HHMMMMM


[This message has been edited by JSMOOTH (edited 03-31-2001).]

 

[maverick2112]

Hey Da Man........after ready your post......cutting down woods, wright etc.....I hope you realized 1 thing......ARIZONA WON THE FRIGGIN GAME.......Yes they beat that same Illinios team who handed MSU their lunch in the game for the big 10 title..Saying MSU is better than Ill is absurd..Remember that game!!!! Also this is the same MSU team that lost in their conference tourney to powerhouse Penn State Yes...Penn State, that same team who need a last second shot to beat that great team Michigan...Everyone brings up the whole Illinios foul problem.....is it Arizonas fault that Illinios is to slow to move their feet on defense to avoid fouls Da Man just answer1 question for me????? Who has MSU beaten on the raod this year that you would consider a good team....Ill-lost....Ind-lost.Ohio State-lost ..At least Arizona won at Stanford and a 44pt win at USC.....I say Arizona by 7... Good Luck

 

[Senor Capper]

I'm not greedy give me + 6.5