...talk about line movement!!!!

taoist

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...logged on this morning to get the early lines for next week, jotted down the ones that caught my eye and went on my way to handicap a few of next week's games. when i logged back on this evening to make a few wagers, i was astonished at the line moves.... mostly looks like sharpies eating up large dog lines, but check out these moves.... first line was at 10 am...new line as of 9 pm CST

Clemson +21....+16
Wake +17.....+12'
Mary +10.....+4
SMU +14.....+6
Colorado +7'....+4
Miss St. +10.....+6
Wash St. +9'....+3'
Ok St. +30.....+24
Rice +10.....+5

...and two favs that i liked this morning....

BYU -8.....-15'
Tenn -4' (i'm not sure about this early line, but i know it was < a TD).....-12

...looking for opinions, comments and even insane ramblings regarding these games and/or line movements.
 

fletcher

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a lot of those are false moves i am sure a few were shots taking but over half were to get the ball rolling towards what some money men want to pound late in the week.
 

JEFF

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Fletch

Fletch

My question to yo is this: How do you separate the false moves from the real "opinion" moves?

Taoist - Where was it that these lines moved so much ... I've never seen anything like that.
 

Nickelback

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The lines taoist looked at in the morning must have been projections and nothing else. . . Vegas doesn't issue their lines for the next weekend that early on Sunday. There may have been a couple moves from the original numbers on a few of those games, but definitely not that drastic.
 

fletcher

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a false move is a play most of the time by a few groups that will make a nice size play on one side and the line will move some depending on who they hit and how hard,the other people see it and follow like cows to slaughter pushing it more in more of the direction of the first move,then when number is at a point where the person or group has what they want the will play the other way for much larger play.

You have to have you own lines or know a line maker to really follow this,you watch the tracker and just follow the movement if the first line is around what you have or have been sent to you before vegas puts it out and they are close and you see a big move it is most of the time false so as to get the number away from the true number and hope to get it at a value price later in the week to the other side.

now if you have lines and then the come out and it is a few points different and it gets hit towards the low line it is usally a guy taking a true shot at a soft line and books will adjust off of that first hit they take to find what they feel will be the true line that will gain the best action = on both side as much as they can and will timker to fit their needs. and some books who have sharp linemakes and have owners that are smart whom bet very large will take a opinion on the game and won't budge off his number no matter what he gets hit with he will move it to -120 -130 or so but will not move off his number because he has taken a stance for his own reason.

hope this helps some,its a guessing games at times but when you see mid week moves and lot of early moves wait it out because more then not its moving the wrong way for a reason,if you see a line that you know or thimk you know is going to get play late take it mid week ex i had hawaii on wen at 20 and bosie.st at 19 they both moved a good bit sat after hits then the followers keep it moving but in this case did not matter but lots of time 2-3 point on steam can mess you up if you bet into it if it jumpfrom 7-10 and you play the steam your late because they played the 7 not the 10 its a feel and just watching your tracker all week and having your own number,then you get the hang of it as best as can be. its all about info and knowing why line took a big move,could be a player that is benched or might be such as the bearcat line when the story broke the line went down, the a's game the other day against mariners they were +147 when aggels hit the hr in the 5th to go up 6-2 the screens went blank i still got +135 because mariners were out of it more or less and would be down for game it closed out at +116 for a's.

just little things you pick up if you have the time to watch.
 
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taoist

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Nickelback said:
The lines taoist looked at in the morning must have been projections and nothing else. . . Vegas doesn't issue their lines for the next weekend that early on Sunday. There may have been a couple moves from the original numbers on a few of those games, but definitely not that drastic.


...nickel, these lines were posted a pinnacle and open for wagers yesterday morning. i could have played any one of them at that time.

...eric, thanks for your invaluable input. do you think that all of these were false moves or just most of them?
 

freelancc

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i agree... i noticed the odd line movement.... Late last night i pounded Tennessee -4 at pinnacle sports. This morning Pinnacle has Tennessee at -12

The line was out for just an hour...(at -4) then the line got yanked off the board.. This morning is came back on at -12.

Was it a human mistake??:shrug:
 

taoist

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...could these first early lines just be lines that pinnacle came out with and then adjusted later when vegas put out their lines and not necessarily because of any money coming in on either side...? some of these moves seem very drastic.... it would take a ton of early money (on a sunday morning) to move some of these lines over 7 points....


...if so, it would seem that their is some early value in these "early Lines" that were put out by pinnacle. opinions or comments?
 

goldcupsports

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Fletcher is 100% right it is some what of a guessing game. If you spend countless hours in front of a live odds feed you will get a feel for movewment whats public whats false what is sharp. These big moves look like false moves and or just adjustments.
 

taoist

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...these lines were posted a pinnacle and open for wagers Sunday morning. i could have played any one of them at that time.


...looking back, i wish i had because i would have given myself some nice opportunities at some large middles. might be something to look at next week.
 
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