TCL Classic

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Thomas Bjorn to win 12/1 e.w. @ William Hill, Victor Chandler and Ladbrokes
Monty may be the form player to beat this week, but Bjorn's record in this region is much more impressive. From the Hong Kong Open in 2003 to the Caltex Masters in January, Bjorn played in five co-sanctioned events with the Asian PGA Tour and finished in the top-four every time! He looked set to continue that trend in Malaysia last month, but followed his opening 68-64 with 73-77 over the weekend. Rested last week unlike many in this field, he looks a realistic bet to better his 2nd place finish in the China Open last December.

Jyoti Randhawa to win 20/1 e.w. @ Sportingbet, Sporting Odds, Ladbrokes and BetFred
No doubting Randhawa's form either. In his last eleven Asian PGA Tour events, he has finished in the top-3 on six occasions and that includes last month's co-sanctioned Malaysian Open. He did play last week in Qatar which is a negative, but having followed his 2nd place finish in Malaysia with finishes of 11th in Dubai and 12th in Qatar, he is clearly more than capable of beating much better European Tour fields than the one on view this week.

Wen-Chong Liang to win 33/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Liang has played in only two events this season and they were both co-sanctioned events with the European Tour and he finished in the top-10 both times. So with a 3rd place finish in the inaugural TCL Classic in 2002 and a 3rd place finish on this course in the Sanya Open, which gives him an important course edge over most of the leading players this week, it is rather surprising that China's top-ranked player is any higher than 25/1.

 

[Cantona7]

James Kingston 22/1(vc bet) 1pt e/w
Wen-chong Liang 33/1 (ladbrokes) 1pt e/w (sorry to coat-tail but needs to be done!)
Jarrod Moseley 100/1 (s james) 0.5pt e/w

 

[phar lap]

72 hole spreads

1. Bjorn / Casey 0 - 1.5 at SportingIndex
Sell 2 units at 0 to be with Casey.

2. Randhawa / Jacquelin -0.35 - 1.35 at SortingIndex
Buy 2 units at 1.35 to be with Randhawa.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt unless stated):

Colin Montgomerie to beat Paul Casey -125 @ William Hill and Easybets
Casey may have played much better at the Ford Championship two weeks ago, but there is plenty of reason to oppose him this week, particularly as he has never played in Asia until now. So very easy to side with Monty who is showing great form - he finished 13 shots ahead of Casey after two rounds in the Nissan Open in their only common events this year - has won his two events in China.
(also available at Carib)

Jyoti Randhawa to beat Paul Casey +118 @ Expekt
Great odds on a player in very good form and with a long history on playing in China. Casey will take some time to adjust his game to the relatively substandard courses in this region, particularly on the greens.
(also available at Stan James and Five Dimes)

Paul McGinley to beat Paul Casey +120 @ Pinnacle
A proven player in this region, McGinley has finished 11th and 5th in his last two starts in China and finished 4th in Malaysia last month. Good odds against a player who will also have to adjust to the climate for the first time.

Paul McGinley to beat Raphael Jacquelin -114 @ Expekt
Apart from a 4th place finish in the Johnnie Walker Classic last February, Jacquelin has never finished in the top-40 in nine events in Asia. In their last common event in this region, McGinley finished 16 shots ahead of Jacquelin and even though the Frenchman played well in Qatar, golf in China is a very different proposition.
(also available at William Hill, BlueSq and Easybets)

Paul McGinley to beat James Kingston -111 @ Centrebet and SuperOdds
Backing McGinley again to play well in this region. Kingston did finish 5th in Qatar last week, but McGinley will be better-prepared this week for having flown out of there much earlier. With the Irishman also beating Kingston in each of their last two common events in this region, I would make him a clear favourite in this match.
(also available at Stan James, Five Dimes and BetInternet)

Lian-Wei Zhang to beat Michael Kirk -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds [2pts]
Don't really understand the reasoning behind this pairing. If this event was being played in Africa, Kirk would be a marginal favourite, but not in China. In this country, Zhang has finished in the top-10 in five of his last ten starts (since October 2002) and in this country, he has won five Tour events in the last ten years. This will be Challenge Tour graduate, Kirk's first event outside Africa this season and in this region he has finished 53rd and missed the cut in his two starts. Both times he finished behind Zhang and it should happen again this week.

Wen-Chong Liang to beat Terry Pilkadaris -120 @ SkyBet and Easybets
Liang finished in 3rd place and one shot behind Pilkadaris in the Sanya Open on this course in October last year, but the Australian's form has been poor since. He has a best finish of 19th and has missed two of his six cuts this year, while Liang has finished 5th and 8th in his 2005 starts. Also having an advantage by not playing in Qatar last week, Liang will be the far stronger candidate to win this event the week before he gets married.
(also available at William Hill)

 

[lostinamerica]

The four days at Qatar last week provided the worst exhibition of chips and short pitches around the greens I have ever witnessed by a field of so-called professionals. Nothing else comes close. If I had been in a clubhouse drinking with friends over the weekend, I could have made a small fortune in side bets wagering on their ineptitude. Just had to comment. I still don't believe what I saw.


CHIP SHOTS:

Jyoti Randhawa(16/1) e.w. @ Bet365
Wen-Chong Liang(25/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
Lian-Wei Zhang(40/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
Ian Woosnam(100/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
Sung-Man Lee(200/1) e.w. @ 5dimes
Michael Campbell(66/1) e.w. @ 5dimes

GL

 

[Whalers Rule]

Emanuel Canonica 100-1 e.w. in running

Shot 67 first round hit every green maybe course suits his game.

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; -1.00pts

Bjorn 3rd
Randhawa mc
Liang 48th

Same as Karlsson last week ... could easily be happy or frustrated that Bjorn finished 3rd, but probably finished up as relieved. The reason: he had a quadruple-bogey 7 on the 3rd hole of his final round. So from starting in 4th place and just one shot out of the lead, he looked dead and buried. But he then he shot 10-under-par for the remaining 15 holes and finished just one shot out of the playoff. Great fightback, but what might have been!

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-4-0; -0.45pts

Montgomerie/Casey LOST by 2
Randhawa/Casey LOST by 11
McGinley/Casey TIED (Lost via playoff)
McGinley/Jacquelin WON by 9
McGinley/Kingston WON by 11
Zhang/Kirk WON by 1
Liang/Pilkadaris LOST by 7

Got the call on Casey badly wrong! I thought that he would struggle on the greens in a low-scoring contest, but he was able to overpower the course and the opposition. Randhawa was poor, but at least the other two were close and it would have made quite a difference had it been McGinley winning the playoff.

Asian PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 2-7; -4.50pts
Matchups: 4-7; -3.35pts