Has anyone seen the win futures?? I think the public is going to overbet the Wizards. How many wins will he add on?? Consider this:
1)At Jordan's peak, Roxy Roxborough said MJ was worth 7 pts to the pointspread. Shaq was worth around 6.5. This may surprise many people, but he would be taking away shots from other players.
2)Say you make a Power Rating system based on team point differentials. Since its the NBA and teams play everyone else (although not the same # of times), we will not use strength of schedule. We'll use 90 as avg. If a team outscores their opponent on avg by 3.5 per game, they are a 93.5. If they are outscored by 3.5/game, they are an 86.5
3)How big of a difference is there between a team who's a 93.5 and one who's a 86.5? Teams around a 93.5 are likely to be around the 50 mark in wins; teams around 86.5 are likely to be around 30 wins. At his peak, he could make a difference of 20 wins.
At 38, his peak has passed. He may still be good, but I suspect he might be worth more like 4 pts to the line now. That would be worth around 10 wins. Add this to a team that won 19 games and it still is only 29 games. Being young, the other players could improve also. But 40 wins looks like a very tall order for the Wizards.
1)At Jordan's peak, Roxy Roxborough said MJ was worth 7 pts to the pointspread. Shaq was worth around 6.5. This may surprise many people, but he would be taking away shots from other players.
2)Say you make a Power Rating system based on team point differentials. Since its the NBA and teams play everyone else (although not the same # of times), we will not use strength of schedule. We'll use 90 as avg. If a team outscores their opponent on avg by 3.5 per game, they are a 93.5. If they are outscored by 3.5/game, they are an 86.5
3)How big of a difference is there between a team who's a 93.5 and one who's a 86.5? Teams around a 93.5 are likely to be around the 50 mark in wins; teams around 86.5 are likely to be around 30 wins. At his peak, he could make a difference of 20 wins.
At 38, his peak has passed. He may still be good, but I suspect he might be worth more like 4 pts to the line now. That would be worth around 10 wins. Add this to a team that won 19 games and it still is only 29 games. Being young, the other players could improve also. But 40 wins looks like a very tall order for the Wizards.
