IND -4.5 vs DET: Both teams still technically in playoff contention. Pacers seem to be holding out hope that George will return which tells me that they don't feel they're out of it yet. This is the 3rd of 4 games against these two teams this year with the Pistons taking both games so far. DET won and covered in both games 119-109 on 12/26 and 98-96 on 1/16
WAS +6 @ ATL: Hawks have taken both match-ups thus far in this four game series. ATL covered both games 106-102 on 11/25 and 120-89 on 1/11.
BKN +7.5 @ TOR: This is game 3 of 4 this season with the Raps having taken both of the prior two matchups 105-89 on 12/17 and 127-122 on 1/30 with Toronto covering the first game and Brooklyn covering the 2nd at home in OT.
HOU -3 vs CHI: This one fits nicely into this system as both are contending for a high seed in their respective conferences and faced each other as recently as a month ago when the Bulls won and covered at home 114-105. This line is suspiciously low, most likely because of the Rockets missing Dwight and the touch matchup they will face inside against Pau and Noah. Something tells me that HOU pulls out the cover tonight with the Bulls struggling defensively of late.
OKC +4 @ NO: The Thunder are an interesting dog here even with the absence of Durant. Both Westbrook and Durant (his comeback game) played in the first matchup on 12/2 where the Pels won and covered at home 112-104. In the second game on 12/21, OKC managed to keep it close but still fell 101-99 with the Pels getting the win and the cover. I'm not sure OKC can manage a win here with NO on a good run as of late beating teams like TOR, DAL, LAC and ATL in the last two weeks, but I do expect the Thunder to cover the 4. If you can get it, +4.5 is optimal here.
DAL +8.5 @ GS: This one is just the 2nd of 4 matchups between these two top teams in the West. GS took the first game in Dallas 105-98 easily covering the 1 point spread as well. Given that this is just the second game between these two and that they last met in mid-december, my gut says this is not as strong of a revenge angle here, but if Dallas doesn't cover tonight again, then I'll be looking for them to cover another large spread in a month when they return to Oakland.
WAS +6 @ ATL: Hawks have taken both match-ups thus far in this four game series. ATL covered both games 106-102 on 11/25 and 120-89 on 1/11.
BKN +7.5 @ TOR: This is game 3 of 4 this season with the Raps having taken both of the prior two matchups 105-89 on 12/17 and 127-122 on 1/30 with Toronto covering the first game and Brooklyn covering the 2nd at home in OT.
HOU -3 vs CHI: This one fits nicely into this system as both are contending for a high seed in their respective conferences and faced each other as recently as a month ago when the Bulls won and covered at home 114-105. This line is suspiciously low, most likely because of the Rockets missing Dwight and the touch matchup they will face inside against Pau and Noah. Something tells me that HOU pulls out the cover tonight with the Bulls struggling defensively of late.
OKC +4 @ NO: The Thunder are an interesting dog here even with the absence of Durant. Both Westbrook and Durant (his comeback game) played in the first matchup on 12/2 where the Pels won and covered at home 112-104. In the second game on 12/21, OKC managed to keep it close but still fell 101-99 with the Pels getting the win and the cover. I'm not sure OKC can manage a win here with NO on a good run as of late beating teams like TOR, DAL, LAC and ATL in the last two weeks, but I do expect the Thunder to cover the 4. If you can get it, +4.5 is optimal here.
DAL +8.5 @ GS: This one is just the 2nd of 4 matchups between these two top teams in the West. GS took the first game in Dallas 105-98 easily covering the 1 point spread as well. Given that this is just the second game between these two and that they last met in mid-december, my gut says this is not as strong of a revenge angle here, but if Dallas doesn't cover tonight again, then I'll be looking for them to cover another large spread in a month when they return to Oakland.
