I was recently looking at the potential profitability of teasing both sides of a single game, or both totals of a single game. For example, the Rose Bowl line last night -8, 54, my two plays would have been:
Miami -2/Nebraska +14 $110/100
Miami under 60/ Miami over 48 $110/100
As the case was last night, I would have lost the side but won the total, for a loss of only juice.
I have been trying to figure out how often the actual score is within 6pts either way of the line. As I see it, if this happens over 52.4% of the time, teasing both sides is profitable. I have been trying to find some data on this matter and have only found the results from 1980-1998 at the following link (posted by Investment Executive):
http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/good_lines_nfl_rev.html
This site does not discuss totals, nor does it discuss the relationship of how far off the actual score is, based on what the line was. What I mean by this is: does a game with a line of TeamA -3 tend to fall within TeamA (+3)/TeamB (+9) more often than a game with an original line of TeamA -14.5, where the tease would be TeamA-8.5/TeamB +20.5?
I would think that it would, since the games with the lines of 3 or less are typically better matchups with less chance of one team just blowing the other out.
Similarly, how often would a total fall between +/- 6pts of the line? With key numbers 37, 34, etc. being very important, it seems like teasing a total of 36.5 --- over30.5/under 42.5 --- might work out more often than not.
I was wondering if you have investigated any similar angle. I have read Nolan's teaser wheel theory and feel that this is somewhat related. Each method could have potential advantages over the other, as I see it. For the wheel, the main advantage is that the game needs to hit within 6pts of the number only once every three wagers (since you only lose juice if it doesn't, and it pays 2 units when it does). However, the main disadvantage, as I see it, is that you must get the first game of the teaser wheel correct or else your entire venture is blown.
By teasing both directions in the same game, the advantage I see is that you don't have to pick a 'best bet' to wheel with the other games. Each wager is 'self contained,' so to speak. However, the disadvantage is that one must know that the stats show a game falling within 6 pts of the number more than 52.4% of the time, or else it is a long term losing proposition.
Anyone have any input on this? Or any data that shows a more complete breakdown of how close games come to the number based on different factors?
Thanks
Miami -2/Nebraska +14 $110/100
Miami under 60/ Miami over 48 $110/100
As the case was last night, I would have lost the side but won the total, for a loss of only juice.
I have been trying to figure out how often the actual score is within 6pts either way of the line. As I see it, if this happens over 52.4% of the time, teasing both sides is profitable. I have been trying to find some data on this matter and have only found the results from 1980-1998 at the following link (posted by Investment Executive):
http://www.thelogicalapproach.com/good_lines_nfl_rev.html
This site does not discuss totals, nor does it discuss the relationship of how far off the actual score is, based on what the line was. What I mean by this is: does a game with a line of TeamA -3 tend to fall within TeamA (+3)/TeamB (+9) more often than a game with an original line of TeamA -14.5, where the tease would be TeamA-8.5/TeamB +20.5?
I would think that it would, since the games with the lines of 3 or less are typically better matchups with less chance of one team just blowing the other out.
Similarly, how often would a total fall between +/- 6pts of the line? With key numbers 37, 34, etc. being very important, it seems like teasing a total of 36.5 --- over30.5/under 42.5 --- might work out more often than not.
I was wondering if you have investigated any similar angle. I have read Nolan's teaser wheel theory and feel that this is somewhat related. Each method could have potential advantages over the other, as I see it. For the wheel, the main advantage is that the game needs to hit within 6pts of the number only once every three wagers (since you only lose juice if it doesn't, and it pays 2 units when it does). However, the main disadvantage, as I see it, is that you must get the first game of the teaser wheel correct or else your entire venture is blown.
By teasing both directions in the same game, the advantage I see is that you don't have to pick a 'best bet' to wheel with the other games. Each wager is 'self contained,' so to speak. However, the disadvantage is that one must know that the stats show a game falling within 6 pts of the number more than 52.4% of the time, or else it is a long term losing proposition.
Anyone have any input on this? Or any data that shows a more complete breakdown of how close games come to the number based on different factors?
Thanks
