Teasing the XFL for extra value?

JD

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Sep 5, 2000
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The Outhouse to the Penthouse!
Now is the time to figure out some real XFL wagering strategies, ideas and angles so we all can help each other before adjustments are made.

I believe that if we can get in on the ground floor of this new sports betting category while still in it's infancy, there may be some money to be had early on. I'd be very interested with what your opinion would be on the following......

I know a lot of guys hate teasers, but if done correctly and in moderation with the NFL, I know that some success can be had.

Now, I was just looking over the lines for this week's XFL games when it hit me.....

With the books accepting regular juice (-110) 6-point teasers for XFL, would it not stand to reason that there is extra value in the 6 points since PAT conversions are now much less automatic than in the NFL? (especially with 3 of the 4 games last week falling in that close-game spread window)

Chances are that for each touchdown scored in the course of a game, the PAT will fail around 60% - 65% of the time, thus adding value to the 6-points received in the teaser. I suppose a good rule of thumb (like one I try to use for NFL) is to stay away from teasing ANY TEAM which you even remotely think could be blown out. Also, field goals look to be much less accurate as well.

Perhaps some of you who are much more savvy with percentages and spreads than I am can do a little research on this and possible uncover an angle as the league unfolds?


[This message has been edited by JD (edited 02-07-2001).]
 

Ice Picks

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Dec 26, 2000
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JD - played many teasers in NFL with good success. I tried to pick good defensive teams, feeling that giving those teams the extra cushion is the best "edge" you can get. I almost never would take a big underdog [bad team], such as CINCI + 14.

According to Nolan's article, he finds value at this early stage of the league in taking all the teams getting points. His point is that no-one is really sure at this stage what any given team can or will do. Including the linemakers.

Therefore, I would think about teasing in the following order

1. Home dogs - NY/NJ +3
2. Teams that won last week
3. Teams that played well but lost

good luck !


[This message has been edited by Ice Picks (edited 02-10-2001).]
 
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