technical data for SUPERBOWL expected win margin

[Scrapman]

was driving me nuts to find it again but this is proven

it was over at c ***s page 9 nfl betting and now wtf cant ignore it

EXPECTED WIN MARGIN ........................................ ........

each team gets so many points based on the one stat has the highest correlation to pts scored through the playoffs.

Eagles 10.7 pts left
Eagles games w/Hurts 18.35, big difference with Hurts in the game
KC 54 pts left, which means if they win it could be big.


this method doesn't tell us who will win just how much they could win by.
Based on the info thus far Eagles would be the play so now that we determined this around 10-11 pt (give or take a few pts) or so win can be reasonable expected, w/Hurts could be 13-14 to 17 or 20 pts win.


last season both teams were out of pts so did not apply

2020 Bucs had 33.92 pts left suggesting a big blowout was possible and they won 31-9. both teams had pts left so one needed to first determine the winner

2019 method did lose, KC out of pts while 9ers had plenty left

2018 Pats had 6.73 pts left and won by 10, both teams with pts left

2017 this was a perfect year as Pats were out of pts and should lose by 3.86 pts , Eagles had 8.44 pts left and won by 8, falling almost exactly halfway between

2016 Pats with 7.85 pts left, Falcons used all their pts and should lose by 5.52, Pats won by 6 again almost halfway between both teams results.

2015 Panthers were out of pts and should lose by 9 pts and they lost by 14, Broncos had many pts left 45.3 suggesting a big blowout that never happened but out-come was pretty close to Panthers result.

2014 method lost Pats had no pts left Seahawks many pts.

2013 Seahawks was the play based on all the info they had 35 pts left and won by 43-8 or 35 pts.

2012 surprise WC round team

2011 Suprise WC round team

2010 Packers had 10.06 pts left and won by 6, both teams with pts left

once you determine who will win you can get pretty close to the margin of victory many times following this method.
I remember playing a alternate line laying like 7 or so pts with Bucs over KC using this method.

 

[Scrapman]

PLAYOFF ONLY POWER RATING I ........................................ ........

Eagles -3.8 over KC

17-7-1 ATS (70%) in all games since 2000 not including surprise WC round teams
when both def-adjusted PR I and playoff only are on the same team ATS --- 10-4-1 ATS

3-4 ATS past 7 years (42.9%)

when recent play falls behind the longer term average makes for a very good play as all these methods tend to regress going both down then back up. prior to the past 7 years method was an off-the-hook, incredible 14-3-1 ATS (80.6%) but unsustainable.
play is on the Eagles

 

[Scrapman]

Defense-adjusted POWER RATING I ........................................ ..............

Eagles defense is 4.18 pts better then KC defense. Eagles receive 4.18 additional pts onto PR I

Teams with better defenses by 3 pts or better --- 5-1 ATS, so to put the defenses in proper perspective, a difference this large has only happen 6 times since 2000 not including surprise WC Round teams.

from 1977 to 1999 --- 7-2 ATS when 3 pts better on defense. only 9 times from 77 to 99, 22 years

Eagles -9.14 over KC

defense-adjusted PR I ...................................

20-8 SU on any lean

12-6 ATS w/6 pt diff to closing line

4-2 ATS w/3-5.99 diff to closing line

play is on the Eagles

 

[Scrapman]

1-1 ATS, won 1.5 units
According to PR I KC out-played Bengals and should of won by 11.09 pts not 3. Don't be fooled by that score. KC was held to FG's instead of getting TD's and with a 7 pt lead and driving into

Bengals territory and a chance to go up 2 scores I think at start of 4th but then Mahomes has an unforced error, mis-handling the ball, fumbles and Bengals recover and score a TD tp tie the game.

Bengals did nothing to cause that fumble, game was not as close as it appears.

Eagles on the other hand should of won by 7.33 pts not 24, another mis-leading final score. Hurts had a lower QBPR then 9ers did with a 4th stringer taking most of the pass atts. But one of

the problems with QBPR is it gives to much credit for passing TD's, what makes the difference if you pass or run for a TD ? They count the same.

Eagles were incredible at rushing TD's getting 31 in regular season compare that to 9ers 16, no contest. Eagles had 4 rushing TD's in this game.

Passing TD's reward teams with a weakness many times because they choose to pass because they can't run, like Marino did and ARod as well.

Troy Aikmen had low passing TD's therefore a lower QBPR because they had a monster offensive line and Emmit with many rushing TD's. That's a choice based on team strength which QBPR does not measure, and why I may develop my own QBPR someday.

Point being if we adjusted Hurts for this he rates far, far better but even then Eagles win only by 12.13, still not close to final score.

This favors KC in the SB.

 

[Scrapman]

Nice weekend for KC backers Eagles left over points vs. Chiefs leftover points difference I'm going assume leans strongly for KC in that metric of yours??


Eagles about 10, KC with many over 30, but remember, this method does not tell us who will win , only how many pts if they do win.

method does not favor the team with most pts left.

 

[Scrapman]

this i found huge edge most every Superbowl Chiefs - 3 in turnovers Eagles +8

but one year Broncos huge negative in turn overs vs Panthers who was way plus in turnvovers destroyed Panthers with thier Defnse as a 5 pt dog!

and Peyton had lowest QBR rating for any s b winning QB like 35.7 Cam was far better QBR

why this happened Panthers s o s ranked 30th

in my years past the team lowest in s o s never covered spreads or won a SB matter of fact the NFC east was in bottom and every team that was ranked like 25 th weakest thru to 32nd is home

in my memory this 2 point spared means zilch only 1 s b had a 1 point margin Giants vs Bills 20-19 Giants were a huge 6.5 dog

 

[Scrapman]

NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings

final standings shocker at bottom 1/11/23

Rank Team Rating Hi Low Last

1 Miami (9-8) 1.3 1 20 1

2 NY Jets (7-10) 1.2 1 28 3

3 Cincinnati (12-4) 0.9 3 25 4

4 Pittsburgh (9-8) 0.9 1 22 2

5 Buffalo (13-3) 0.8 1 12 5 GONE

6 New England (8-9) 0.7 3 26 12

7 Baltimore (10-7) 0.7 2 28 10 OUSTED

8 LA Rams (5-12) 0.6 1 15 6

9 Cleveland (7-10) 0.4 8 32 8

10 Arizona (4-13) 0.4 2 19 15

11 Kansas City (14-3) 0.4 2 13 9 still here

12 Tampa Bay (8-9) 0.2 3 17 7 POOF

13 Chicago (3-14) 0.2 6 32 11

14 Detroit (9-8) 0.1 6 30 17

15 Green Bay (8-9) 0.0 3 23 13

16 Tennessee (7-10) -0.2 5 30 18

17 Las Vegas (6-11) -0.2 2 31 24

18 New Orleans (7-10) -0.3 14 31 14

19 Denver (5-12) -0.3 7 32 19

20 Washington (8-8-1) -0.4 10 32 26

21 Dallas (12-5) -0.4 6 25 22 POOF

22 Minnesota (13-4) -0.4 3 28 16 POOF

23 LA Chargers (10-7) -0.5 1 28 23 POOF

24 Seattle (9-8) -0.5 12 32 21 POOF

25 NY Giants (9-7-1) -0.6 11 32 32 POOF

26 Carolina (7-10) -0.7 23 32 29 POOF

27 Indianapolis (4-12-1) -0.8 10 30 20 POOF

28 Jacksonville (9-8) -0.8 10 32 25 POOF

29 Atlanta (7-10) -0.9 15 32 27 POOF

30 Houston (3-13-1) -1.1 16 32 28 POOF

31 Philadelphia (14-3) -1.1 15 32 31 STILL Here

32 San Francisco (13-4) -1.2 9 32 30 WILL get Beat @ Philly OUTTA HERE


what they were earlier OCTOBER

NFL Strength of Schedule Rankings & Ratings


Rank Team Rating Hi Low Last
1 Pittsburgh (2-6) 2.7 1 22 3

2 Buffalo (6-2) 2.7 1 12 1

3 Baltimore (6-3) 2.3 2 28 4

4 Kansas City (6-2) 1.8 2 13 2

5 NY Jets (6-3) 1.7 5 28 11

6 Miami (6-3) 1.4 1 20 5

7 LA Rams (3-5) 0.8 1 15 6

8 Green Bay (3-6) 0.6 3 23 7

9 Detroit (2-6) 0.3 9 30 12

10 Tennessee (5-3) 0.1 5 30 17

11 Tampa Bay (4-5) 0.1 3 13 9

12 Arizona (3-6) 0.1 2 19 8

13 Cincinnati (5-4) 0.0 8 25 10

14 Chicago (3-6) -0.3 6 32 15

15 Dallas (6-2) -0.4 6 19 18

16 San Francisco (4-4) -0.4 9 31 14

17 Las Vegas (2-6) -0.4 2 17 13

18 Indianapolis (3-5-1) -0.6 10 30 24

19 New England (5-4) -0.6 3 26 19

20 NY Giants (6-2) -0.6 11 31 21

21 Washington (4-5) -0.6 14 32 20

22 New Orleans (3-6) -0.6 19 31 22

23 Atlanta (4-5) -0.7 15 32 16

24 Cleveland (3-5) -0.7 17 32 27

25 Carolina (2-7) -0.8 23 30 26

26 Houston (1-6-1) -1.1 16 32 30

27 Minnesota (7-1) -1.1 3 28 23

28 LA Chargers (5-3) -1.2 1 28 25

29 Seattle (6-3) -1.5 12 32 32

30 Denver (3-5) -1.5 7 32 31

31 Jacksonville (3-6) -1.6 10 32 29

32 Philadelphia (8-0) -1.6 15 32 28


:shrug:

 

[Scrapman]

Last year Rams ranked #1 Bengals Ranked 5th

to be sure i get right side im using the pick from legned DON Juan @ covers and fading Matress Mack he cannot favor any team in texas area Chiefs nope Eagles no way

mater of fact Matress mack has lost with chiefs in superbowls and playoffs 100% loser millions

 

[Scrapman]

Referee Angle

Carl Cheffers is the crew chief for this SB. He is awful. In 12 playoff games, the Under is 11-1.
His crew calls more penalties than any group..
They manage to screw up more scoring drives that takes away 1st downs, big plays and ultimately, points scored.

Officials should only be calling obvious penalties. They could call holding on every play. Cheffers does indeed love to throw flags. He threw the most flags the last two yrs and 3 yrs ago his crew was #2 in flags

 

[Scrapman]

League MVP winner / Fade USA Today 100%

just found this

Been a while but the big game is finally less than a week away which means the NFL league mvp winner will be announced this week as well. Going back and looking at all the QB league mvp winners , the last to also win a Super Bowl was Kurt Warner in 1999.

Not very good odds. Brady , Matt Ryan , Cam Newton , and the great Peyton Manning just to name a few that have failed to win both. Another interesting way I’ve been able to pick the superbowl winner in the last 5 years straight is by picking up the Main USA Today newspaper on Friday.

The front of the news paper will be advertising the loosing team of the superbowl and if there’s nothing on the main , Then in the sports section the cover and main picture you see will be the loser of the superbowl.

Fade , fade , fade ! This has worked 5 years straight and I’ve used it time after time And it continues to work.

Last year main cover had nothing but sports section had all OBJ pictures and stories about the trade and how he got them to the superbowl.
I took Cinci plus the points.

The year before Mahomes was on the main cover of the paper and when u open the sports section there was a huge picture of Pat Mahomes again flexing. Tampa plus the points was a winner.
Year before that main cover had nothing , sports section had a big picture of Jimmy G. Kc mL was the play. (i had kc - points)

Year before that was rams on the cover of sports section New England won. And lastly before that was Tom Brady and Belichick hugging each other on the sports section big huge picture and of course Nick foles and philly plus the points was the play.

i had eagles also Brady big yelling face on the playbook cover also on madden cover and the kiss of death league MVP before the sb

I’ve saved them all , I got proof of everything. Can’t wait to c who they got this year but we shall know by Friday morning boys and girls.
My official play will be released later this week.
​

 

[Slumdog]

Lol. Love it. Let’s see Friday !!!

 

[Scrapman]

yup cant wait tomorrow before starting work i run to whoever sells it and buy my copy :tmi: