Technical Q for Experienced Handicappers

[PerpetualCzech]

Do any of you think about any edge for MLB totals betting with respect to the bottom of the ninth? That is, there could be a slight edge to betting the under if you think the home team will win and vice versa.

My question for those who have a long experience with observing MLB lines ... will the bookmaker take this into account? For example, if the home team is a heavy favourite, say -300 or above, do you feel the linesmaker reduces the total by a little due to the greater expectation that there will be only 8.5 innings played rather than the full 9?

 

[monkey]

maybe

maybe

High lines are on the pitcher mostly i believe and the batting.
If a game goes 8.5 innings or 12 is guess.

just my thoughts

I seldom bet o/u good luck

 

[Stewy]

I think one edge that is definitely worth considering is NL vs. AL. You would be surprised how many jams a pitcher can get out of by striking out the opposing pitcher. As for the bottom of the ninth I would advise being aware of the setup closer situation if you are worried about being burnt in the late innings.

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Monkey,

Not sure what you mean by "high lines are on the pitcher" I'm trying to figure out the effect of a highly favoured team (whatever the reason that they are favoured) on the total

Stewy,

It's not about being burned in the late innings ... if a home team is winning 8-0 then the bottom of the ninth is not played and I still miss my chance to hit my Over 8.5 play (or conversely am very happy with my Under 8.5 play) I was just wondering if the more experienced MLB handicappers notice any adjustments for this when one team is very heavily favoured (e.g. Arizona tonight)

 

[Stewy]

It is about being burned in the late innings, but if you know what is gonna happen in the ninth inning then maybe you should be on the side and not the total.:shrug:

 

[PerpetualCzech]

I'll try and explain myself a bit more clearly. If a home team is heavily favoured then they have a higher chance to win the game. If they have a higher chance to win the game there is a higher chance that the bottom of the ninth will not be played, whether they are leading 8-0 or 5-4, whether one team is getting burned late or early. My question is whether anyone notices that the total for these types of games are adjusted one way or the other due to the fact that only 17 half innings are more likely to be played than 18.

 

[DoubleDown]

This is an angle that I often consider in baseball. It didn't pan out in the SFG/CINN game yesterday, though!

 

[THE HITMAN]

Czech........I doubt it if is is reflected in the actual line. I mean to move a line , you would have to move it at least 1/2. I dont think they figure that extra 1/2 inn. as being worth 1/2, or that they would put that much weight on it. One could probably pick up on the fact that the line is 1/2 lower if they did figure it in. Where I think you pay (or dont pay) for it is in the line movement. They may start it at 5-10 cents one way or another, but my guess is that you will never see it..............I mean it is probably so insignificant that you wont be able to tell if it is there or not. Note: Once a house establishes a number, they would much rather play with juice than to go off of the original #. Good question, tho. Now, if it was basketball.....................Hit Em ..THE HITMAN

 

[PerpetualCzech]

Thx for the reply HITMAN. Not sure if the movement would be as insignificant as you're suggesting though. Say the total was 9 for a full 9 inning game and then you have a big chance that half an inning won't be played. That would suggest the line should move close to 8.5, almost a full half a run, no?

 

[superbook]

Perp Czech --

MJ's ownNolan Dalla has written a nice article on the subject of Totals, in case you haven't read it:


http://www.madjacksports.com/nolan/articlesmay20.shtml


If I read this article correctly it says that Vegas bases Totals on starting pitchers and doesn't take into account the DH when making Totals for the NL vs the AL. As Nolan points out that is 12% of the at bats. So if they're not taking into account that difference, I doubt they're factoring in the hometeam's half inning in the ninth.

Good question.

Jon

 

[superbook]

PC --

As I re-read your thread; I think what Nolan is saying is that the Total for the AZ/PIT game tonite of 7 is based upon the match-up of Johnson v Fogg. IMO it doesn't factor in the AZ's probable one less AB in the 9th or the quality of the relievers.

Very rarely do you see a number lower than 7.

As you know the line is not a prediction of the score but is designed to get equal betting action on both sides.

 

[slvrblet]

TONIGHTS ARIZONA GAME WAS ONE HIT AWAY FROM A PUSH OR AN OVER.....BUT THE HIT DIDNT OCCUR...IT WENT UNDER 3-2...
OF COURSE..I HAD THE OVER....FIGURES

 

[loophole]

while i have been 'capping college football and hoops for some time, this is only my third season of working baseball so i usually try to do more listening than speaking on the subject. i do spend some time on totals and, as many others have previously pointed out, a large home favorite has some importance when considering the total. while a typical game is expected to last 18 frames, or 54 outs, a game in which the home team is a prohibitive favorite can only be expected to last 17 frames, or 51 outs. that works out to about a 5 1/2% difference or, in a game with a posted total of 10, about half a run. i can assure you the linesmaker considers this factor when posting the opening line, with the money moving the number from there.

 

[ThomasJ]

totals

totals

Loophole is right on the money with his post,also pro gamblers use this scenario all the time, it's important !
Tom

 

[nighthorse]

I think you've got the totals question answered....as far as not considering the DH......It's not that linesmakers ignore the DH, but that AL pitcher's numbers already reflect the existence of the DH in their ERA's, whip's, etc. In the world series, given the same pitching matchup, you will pay more (either in runs or juice) to get the over in the AL park.

If there's a question as to whether a linesmaker has taken a factor into account, it's safe to assume he has.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Loop When you say that " the linesmakers factor it in & let the money move the number from there ". ........but ,houses rarely go off of (change) the original # , say 8 1/2 that they start with. I mean, they will go to 8 1/2 -140, maybe higher before they will change that figure to 9. I guess my point is that you may see it factored in the juice, (by the house or bettors) but not the actual number.
Thanks & Hit Em Hard THE HITMAN