OK I am asking for some advise on this......Tomorrow, there are many womens matches to place action on. MANY of these matches are of heavy favorites. I use a site (because I dont know a whole lot about womens tennis) that uses stats and provides a probability that a player will win a match. It is extremely accurate, and I have been doing quite well. The only flaw I have noticed is that sometimes the model will show that a big underdog has great value.
Example....Tomorows match with Clijsters and Zuluaga. Clisjters is a -1375 chalk, which means that Vegas is saying that she would win this match about 93% of the time. The model I use says that Clijsters would win this match 84% of the time. So there is value in betting Zuluaga. Everytime I have bet the big dog.....it has lost. Maybe I havent bet enough of the big dogs for the percentages to catch up, or maybe the big dogs just dont hit at all.
My question......there are many big favs tomorrow. In my opinion, there are two ways I can play it......I can take all of the big favs and do round robin parlays, or I can take the dogs that the model shows value with and play them all straight up and hope for the best.
Any ideas?
Example....Tomorows match with Clijsters and Zuluaga. Clisjters is a -1375 chalk, which means that Vegas is saying that she would win this match about 93% of the time. The model I use says that Clijsters would win this match 84% of the time. So there is value in betting Zuluaga. Everytime I have bet the big dog.....it has lost. Maybe I havent bet enough of the big dogs for the percentages to catch up, or maybe the big dogs just dont hit at all.
My question......there are many big favs tomorrow. In my opinion, there are two ways I can play it......I can take all of the big favs and do round robin parlays, or I can take the dogs that the model shows value with and play them all straight up and hope for the best.
Any ideas?
