Tennis Jan 3rd

Ghost Kid

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Soderling in straight sets

nice call

good start to the year for you
 

Nelson

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More picks coming, Wayne? I see 5d has some of the largest splits ever seen on obscure tennis action (Qatar and such).
 

THE_THONG

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Samantha Stosur -175 vs Lucie Safarova +145

brisbane open

Lucie Safarova +145

they've played twice, lucie beat her both times, worth a shot

i think stosur is chalk due to home country advantage
:SIB
 

WayneWonder

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Nishkori won 63 62!!

YTD: 2-1 (+.19 units)

THONG...Nice call on Safarova!

I am glad to see others posting tennis picks. This forum can always use more solid tennis cappers. I like how you post a reasoning behind your play, too. It helps others get an idea of why you are backing a player as opposed to blindly following you. Keep up the good work.

Tennis can be a profitable sport if you learn to wager smart. It can also be very dangerous as there are many big faves and in tournaments outside the majors, you can lose your shirt pretty quickly backing players at those inflated prices...

Tues Jan. 6th

Ivo Minar (-130) over Wayne Odesnik - Chennai

Mikhail Youzhny ( +117) over Igor Andreev - Doha

I like for Mikhail to regain his form after a rocky finish to '08 in which he lost 5 of his last 7 matches. The time off should help as should an opponent who has never won a first round match at Doha. Odesnik is in poor form at the moment, losing to both Young and Levine in the USTA wild card playoff for Aussie Open.

Both plays 1 unit
 

Nelson

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These obscure tourneys are hard to bet, for me at least. I like the slams, particularly betting unders on the number of games. Will post on those when the time comes. Other than that, I don't have a lot to add to tennis forum, not being able to see these matches to make judgments. Stick to basketball totals until April.

How do you go about picking these obscure tournaments, Wayne? Do you follow individual players year round?
 

WayneWonder

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Nelson..

I do not like to bet a lot of these fringe tournaments and will rarely bet more than one or two units on a match outside the Slams. There are a few players who I like and try to pick up on as undervalued heading into the Slams.

Other than that, it is just H2H and gut feelings. I tend to fade one dimensional players, mainly guys who rely too heavily on a big serve. I feel as though they do not make the commitment to winning points on their opponents serve or in long rallies, knowing they will earn cheap point off their own serve.
 

THE_THONG

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nice wayne, i rode the kei pick too seeing he was going against american, bobby reynolds

then went with ivo minar over another american lol, american tennis players have been getting reamed

it's nice to hit 3 tennis winners in a day

i love betting tennis, i know a lot of the players now, i just follow scores from tournament, if you follow a tournament from beggining to end, it can be very lucrative, the matches are akin to boxing

tonight i'm gonna go with Gulbis -165 over frenchman, paul henri matheiu

Gulbis is one of the hottest rising stars coming off a win over former training partner djokovic(though mentally not sharp) and mathieu is a bit of headcase

odds are good enough to lay the chalk on ernest
 

WayneWonder

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THONG..

Good luck in your wager on Gulbis. I tend to fade somebody who has just posted a top-5 win as emotions and odds may be inflated. I don't know how many times I have seen a young player win a match over one of the top players on tour only to lay an egg to an opponent they should normally beat in the next round. I favor Mathieu but no wager.

Verdasco -110 over Ancic (1 unit)

I completely agree with your thoughts about betting a tournament from start to finish. Typically by the semis of most of these tournaments there are no good odds, but you can find some nice plays in the early stages.
 
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Nelson

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Verdasco -110 over Ancic (1 unit)

I completely agree with your thoughts about betting a tournament from start to finish. Typically by the semis of most of these tournaments there are no good odds, but you can find some nice plays in the early stages.

Another winner from Wayne! Thanks.
 

Nelson

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I do not like to bet a lot of these fringe tournaments and will rarely bet more than one or two units on a match outside the Slams. There are a few players who I like and try to pick up on as undervalued heading into the Slams.

Other than that, it is just H2H and gut feelings. I tend to fade one dimensional players, mainly guys who rely too heavily on a big serve. I feel as though they do not make the commitment to winning points on their opponents serve or in long rallies, knowing they will earn cheap point off their own serve.

Hmm, one-tool fade, never thought about it like that before, good stuff. I appreciate the analysis as much as the picks.
 
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