The way so many bullpens have been struggling lately, I am starting to wonder if a successful strategy would be to play the Under for five innings and the Over for the game.
Some of these set up men just can't throw strikes and when they do, the batters are hammering them. It seems the pitching is so watered down that the low budget teams just don't put any money into the bullpen and are running Triple A pitchers out there. On top of that, many closers are blowing saves as well.
If it was the same result for the game throughout (Over/Over or Under/Under) you might lose a bit of juice depending on the line. However from what I've seen, you'd win alot more games on the Under / Over strategy than ever playing the Over / Under. At least for this year.
You'd have to be selective and look for ideal spots like say the teams top set up man went two or so innings the day before but I feel you could spot some winners this way.
Obviously Vegas knows how bad the bullpens are but they can only cover a situation like this to a certain extent. I mean they can't put out a five inning total at three and full game total at eleven and a half. Most five inning lines are 4 to 5 1/2 (some 3 1/2's in the NL) and game totals of 8 1/2 to 10. Of course it would highly depend on the starting pitchers and the teams playing.
Just starting to wonder if there is money to be made this way if being selective after seeing so many games blow up in the 7th, 8th and 9th. Any thoughts? :shrug:
Some of these set up men just can't throw strikes and when they do, the batters are hammering them. It seems the pitching is so watered down that the low budget teams just don't put any money into the bullpen and are running Triple A pitchers out there. On top of that, many closers are blowing saves as well.
If it was the same result for the game throughout (Over/Over or Under/Under) you might lose a bit of juice depending on the line. However from what I've seen, you'd win alot more games on the Under / Over strategy than ever playing the Over / Under. At least for this year.
You'd have to be selective and look for ideal spots like say the teams top set up man went two or so innings the day before but I feel you could spot some winners this way.
Obviously Vegas knows how bad the bullpens are but they can only cover a situation like this to a certain extent. I mean they can't put out a five inning total at three and full game total at eleven and a half. Most five inning lines are 4 to 5 1/2 (some 3 1/2's in the NL) and game totals of 8 1/2 to 10. Of course it would highly depend on the starting pitchers and the teams playing.
Just starting to wonder if there is money to be made this way if being selective after seeing so many games blow up in the 7th, 8th and 9th. Any thoughts? :shrug:
