test...tell me what you think

[running_wild]

i've been on a downslide in the NBA for awhile...i've always thought that if I read into games TOO much it clouds my vision...but let's see if I look closer at games if it helps...

Saturday games..
CHI@NYK -10.5
this game looks tough from the first look...camby and weatherspoon are out so this makes it easier..NYK wins against poor O and cle is poor O but because NYK have poor O i would have to go with Chi and their big spread
CHI +10.5

BOS@WASH +2.5
bos wins when playing poor D, and wash has poor D, this one is a play that i see being an easy one..
BOSTON -2.5

MIA@CLE +2.5
mia injuries cloud this game as well, but my early lean is towards mia because of the same factors as the NYK. mia has good D and Cle has poor O, and considering this is riley's longest losing streak i see this game a perfect opportunity for that streak to end..
MIA -2.5

CHA@ORL -10
mashburn out(i think), and cha's 4th game in 5 nights..ORL seems to play well against teams with guards and poorly with great front courts and even though campbell and brown are solid there not great (i.e., duncan, o'neal, malone etc...) ORL also wins against poor D and loses against good D, i consider cha to have poor D
ORL -10 (only if mashburn is out)

MEM@DET -13
no line yet, but i have to lean to DET up to 13...mem can't score and DET has one of the best D so far...det coming off 2 losses so they should be up for this one...
DET (up to -13 and only if stackhouse is playing)

SAS@MIN -2.5
both teams starting off great but i don't believe in the MIN hype...min has yet to play a team with a great big man and SAS have the twin towers, SAS is playing great and with both teams healthy and rested i see a great game with the spurs slowly building a lead as the game progresses...garnett is shut down by the twin towers..
SAS +2.5

PHO@DAL -6
tough game to call, great matchups at almost all positions...tried to cap but don't see any angles...
no decision

ATL@MIL -11.5
love atl here getting so many points...what i have noticed with the bucks is even though they have a great record they are a shooting squad first and foremost and when a team lives and dies by the jumper they tend to not blow teams out..mil has only won once by double digits and that was against utah by 11...they seem to have cold spells in every game which causes for closer games and with atl finally waking up and playing better ball of late i have to take atl plus the points
ATL +11.5

NJ@SAC -7.5
both teams playing great ball and i see this one being a close game with either team coming out on top...every position is has great matchups and with kidd making all of the nets better i think that linesmakers are not giving NJ their just dues...
NJ +7.5

well everyone this is a very long post and if you have read it all or almost all great...please it would be really appreciative if you could give some feedback as i am not a good capper and am still in the learning process, so any advice would be thankfully taken
running_wild


[This message has been edited by running_wild (edited 11-24-2001).]

[This message has been edited by running_wild (edited 11-24-2001).]

 

[running_wild]

changed some of my thoughts...just thought to let you guys know

 

[GM]

Hey running_wild,

Since you asked for my opinion...

Well, first off I should say I don't think I'm an NBA expert or anything. I've been doing NBA for two years but really don't think I have it cased yet. (Far from it! Haha). I'm trying though. I've been doing NFL for about six years and I feel I have a much better handle on that, but the NBA is completely different and a whole new learning experience. There are a lot of methods I use to 'cap NFL that don't apply to the NBA or even college football or any other sport in the least. Anyways, these are just my opinions but I could be wrong too, I'm still learning like everyone else.

First off I wouldn't be betting every game (or nearly every game). I find when I do that I get myself in trouble because I can't possibly have a strong opinion on every game on the board. I have to force myself to only play a few games a night or else it gets to be just guessing. And if you're just guessing, you're more likely to go 50/50, which loses money. Some days (like yesterday) I could have taken 8 or 9 bets... I limited myself to 6. Today I don't really like the card and had trouble coming up with 3 or 4 that I really felt good about.

As for the specific games you picked....

Well, after the fact it's easy to say, but I was leaning to Chicago and Under. You'll have to trust me on that one.

But I didn't have a strong enough feeling to pull the trigger, so no bet.

I've taken Boston, but it looks too easy doesn't it? I DO feel it's a good spot for Boston, but if it looks too easy, it usually is. The line is dropping and I just don't get it. Do people really love Michael Jordan that much that they'll throw their money away on him or is there something more I am missing? The numbers I have point to Boston, despite the fact they played last night.

I don't like Miami as a road favorite. Actually I don't like them anywhere at the moment the way they are playing. I don't have any confidence in betting on Cleveland so that game has to be a pass for me.

The Char/Orl game, well...easy to think we'll just get a carbon copy of last night's game, but it rarely works out that way. If anything you'd be inclined to think Orlando will win by even more now since they're at home. But rematches have a way of going the opposite way of the first game...or at the very least we are likely to see a very different TYPE of game as both teams try to adjust to what happened last night. Maybe Orlando thinks they have it made and they relax the whole way and don't cover. Who knows? I find rematch situations difficult to predict and I just don't know what we'll see tonight.

Detroit - I took them reluctantly, but in reality I am getting cold feet about it. I just HATE taking huge favorites, it's usually a recipe for failure. After all, the big fav has no motivation to run the score up....just win the game and get out of the gym. And Detroit is certainly not accustomed to being a favorite of this magnitude. But Memphis...man...they are bad, it's hard to ignore that.

I considered SA/Minn, searching for a play. It's a really interesting game. Both teams have top-grade offence and middle of the pack-to-good defence. So maybe you'd think Over the total...but a lot of the time it doesn't work out that way when you get two top offences, oddly enough. And I suspect neither team has been pressured much this year and forced to show just how good defensively they can be, if need be. Basically I just can't figure this game out from a betting standpoint. Hahaha. I like both teams. The numbers indicate both teams are in a strong position and play similar styles, so I can't take a side.

Pho/Dal - Took the Over in this game, outlined in my other thread. Line seems about right.

Atlanta - I think your take on Milwaukee is pretty accurate. They don't seem to really crush the weak teams. But I don't see Atlanta having any sort of edge here, and in reality Milwaukee IS the far superior team. Atlanta's not much of a road team. The game doesn't really interest me.

I disagree with you on Sacramento, almost to the point of wanting to bet them. Sacramento is one really tough place to play, and the Kings seem to like to jump out early and stomp on teams. Pretty tough for an Eastern team to go out there and hang with them. And Sac's D is much improved in my opinion. I think it will be a great game. I like both team's D, so I took the Under.

 

[thisisbad]

Hey RW, thanks for putting up a post and sharing your ideas. I think you will prob get more replies during the week, weekends are reserved for foots

If youput your thread up each day, i will at least come in and share, i think it would be fun. I ain't no capper like these guys here, but i'd still like to throw some stuff out there.

Good luck to ya!