Testing Dogs theory

[mgr187]

After reading a chapter on sports betting by Avery Cardoza and a previous thread about playing dogs in baseball up to +200, I decided to give it a shot. I started yesterday and played all the dogs up to +200 for $5.00 each here are the results:

Mil +109 $5.00 to win $5.45 loss
Cincy +138 $5.00 to win $6.90 loss
Fla +128 $5.00 to win $6.40 win
LAA +106 $5.00 to win $5.3 win
Tex +136 $5.00 to win $6.8 win
Oak +175 $5.00 to win $8.75 win
Sea +145 $5.00 to win $7.25 loss

Total profit $12.25.
So today I'm at it again:

Mil +130
Pit +129
Cincy +135
Ari +120
SFO +115
SDG +132
LOS +107
Cle +108
TB +142
Tex +143
Tor +210
Oak +125
Sea +160

Any thoughts on this?

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

you'll lose more games than you'll win

you will lose money in the long run. baseball isn't as easy to beat as plain betting dogs blindly

if you really are interested in how enormous the swings can be, get the numbers for july and august of last baseball season. see what your numbers would have been if you tried this system then. i've said it before, you would be homeless.

your risk of ruin is high. your bankroll needs to be enormous to handle the swings. good days will be great, bad days will be frustrating and there will be many.

gl

 

[mgr187]

BleedDodgerBlue, Yeah , I figured it was too good to be true, that's why I'm only trying it at $5.00 a pop for a few days this week. It seems though that there has to be a balance in betting favs and dogs, because I don't see how just playing favs would be profitable with laying out so much for little. I don't know.

 

[IntenseOperator]

you may actually do well IMO

I read an article that said big dogs are a pretty strong bet. I figure Vegas must make their money on the lower ones.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

you may actually do well IMO

I read an article that said big dogs are a pretty strong bet. I figure Vegas must make their money on the lower ones.

Books make the majority of all their money in bases when dogs win. Books root for dogs to win 99 percent of the games. Assuming they have evenly balanced action on the games. Assume 20 people bet a game to win 100 on the fave and flat bet the dog which is how most people bet:

10 bet -130 1300/1000
10 bet +120 1000/1200

favorite wins book breaks dead even
dog win book wins 100 and that's with a dime line

so if a book has identical action on a game money wise it's hoping for the dog to win. simplistic scenario and books are rarely balanced to the penny.
what amazes me is that people play at places that don't offer dime lines. crazy.

gl

 

[Jackanape]

While it's true, you CAN'T make money betting only favorites, I'm not convinced you can be successful playing ALL the dogs every day, either. (And believe me, some days, I feel like I've done it! LOL)

Ultimately, there's a reason these dogs are going off at the price they're taking...while alot of it may fall into the public perception of a team's value, the price is also based on what the book thinks will maximize the potential take from the favorite bettor.

I think you're on thr right track by ONLY looking at the dog options, but not playing every one. Perhaps reviewing your plays before looking at the lines, then eliminating the faves from your list would be your best bet here...