TEXAS -4 1/2
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You guys crack me up...."heavy public money".....what total bs.....If you like a side fine, but that is the most ridiculous (and factually inaccurate) thing I always hear around here....
texas/nebraska isnt even in the top 10 in terms of lopsided consensus games. it might as well be another game on the card.
DITTO....well said sun....i never figured that it was that easy to beat vegas by outsmarting them:mj07:
u mean i dont even have to cap the game? i just have to watch the "public" money and when the line moves in the opposite direction i just pound that side? sweeeeeeeeeeeet:142smilie
Totally agree Sun, people can go ahead and bet every line drop or jump on what they believe as "public money".....They'll soon find out the hard way once their bankroll is depleted.
Beside the point without trying to sound ridiculous.....does anyone think maybe that Asian consesus group described in the General forum has anything to do with this massive line drop looking for the middle? Just a thought that pondered in my head. Very interesting article to read if you guys haven't checked it out already. Guess they've been on a rampage.
Beside the point without trying to sound ridiculous.....does anyone think maybe that Asian consesus group described in the General forum has anything to do with this massive line drop looking for the middle? Just a thought that pondered in my head. Very interesting article to read if you guys haven't checked it out already. Guess they've been on a rampage.
Maybe they will maybe they wont. But wherever you get 70% from is total bullshit and only a fool makes a ppick based on aforementioned bullshit.
Well then i`m a fool.....I`m on the Huskers +5.....3.5 pt drop is good enough for my money...GL
Texas -4.5 1379 69.4% Nebraska +4.5 637 431.6%
10/15/06 01:40 PM ET (Open) +8 55u
10/15/06 01:50 PM ET +7.5 55u
10/15/06 02:09 PM ET +7.5 54.5u
10/15/06 03:00 PM ET +7 52.5u
10/15/06 03:49 PM ET +7 51u
10/15/06 06:39 PM ET +6 51u
10/15/06 07:30 PM ET +5.0 51.5u
10/16/06 08:40 PM ET +4.5 52u
am I missing something???
am I missing something???
thought the line goes up if its heavy on the favorite. Vegas is a business they need to balance the books.
am I missing something???
thought the line goes up if its heavy on the favorite. Vegas is a business they need to balance the books.
I don't know about you but I am showing -7? that is at betus though and sometimes they have different lines
Yeah, only a fool would take the house's side since they win every year....oh wait.
Keep calling us fools, and keep combing those trend sheets. Lots of solid info about games that have no bearing on this weeks games. You don't get it and you never will.
This line has me confused as hell...
If the money is on TX then the line should be going up not down...but who cares, I'll just lay less than 7 on this game and be thrilled to get that line.
What is the argument that the huskers can give a good account of themselves agains a superior D? Other than home field, this team is on the disadvantage! Neb hasn't beaten a foe of this quality in quite some time.
Of course I could be wrong, but feel much more at ease laying a small number with the horns than taking that number with a weaker team.
Good luck either way!
If the money is on TX then the line should be going up not down...but who cares, I'll just lay less than 7 on this game and be thrilled to get that line.
What is the argument that the huskers can give a good account of themselves agains a superior D? Other than home field, this team is on the disadvantage! Neb hasn't beaten a foe of this quality in quite some time.
Of course I could be wrong, but feel much more at ease laying a small number with the horns than taking that number with a weaker team.
Good luck either way!
knock yourself out, free pick write up
knock yourself out, free pick write up
Bottom line in this game: I don?t like the line movement. I don?t like it one bit. This thing has dropped nearly two full points, and when that happens, I immediately begin to look the other way. Why? Well, for one thing, the public is wrong more often than it is right. For another, all of the value ? ALL of it ? now rests with Texas. And frankly, it rested with Texas when this number came out at seven!
I know people want to get all warm and fuzzy about how Nebraska?s ?back.? Nebraska?s not back, guys, not even close. And all you have to do is go back and look at two games, and you?ll see I?m right. First, back in Week 3, Nebraska went to USC and got spanked 28-10 by a Trojans team that we now know, based on subsequent results, is not nearly as good as advertised.
Now, guess what happened prior to that game? The public bet the number down from 18? to 16 ? the majority of those folks lost! Now skip ahead to Sept. 30. The place: Lincoln, Neb. The opponent: lowly Kansas. The line: Nebraska -23. The final: Nebraska 39, Kansas 32 in overtime! Guys, the Huskers needed overtime to defeat Kansas at home!! And you think they?re going to hang with Texas today? Forget it!
Yes, I know all about Nebaska?s offense, especially the ground game, which ranks 11th in the country at 207.8 rushing yards per game. But today, that ground attack goes up against a Texas stop unit that?s yielding just 47.7 rushing ypg. The Longhorns? defense is going to stuff the Cornhuskers JUST like USC did. Meanwhile, Mack Brown?s offense, which is piling up nearly 43 points per game, will pound Nebraska?s front seven into submission early and often, which eventually will open up big plays for stud freshman QB Colt McCoy (18 TDs, 3 INTs).
Oh, it?s going to be a long day in Lincoln, guys ? a long day for the Huskers. Texas, easily, by double digits!
knock yourself out, free pick write up
Bottom line in this game: I don?t like the line movement. I don?t like it one bit. This thing has dropped nearly two full points, and when that happens, I immediately begin to look the other way. Why? Well, for one thing, the public is wrong more often than it is right. For another, all of the value ? ALL of it ? now rests with Texas. And frankly, it rested with Texas when this number came out at seven!
I know people want to get all warm and fuzzy about how Nebraska?s ?back.? Nebraska?s not back, guys, not even close. And all you have to do is go back and look at two games, and you?ll see I?m right. First, back in Week 3, Nebraska went to USC and got spanked 28-10 by a Trojans team that we now know, based on subsequent results, is not nearly as good as advertised.
Now, guess what happened prior to that game? The public bet the number down from 18? to 16 ? the majority of those folks lost! Now skip ahead to Sept. 30. The place: Lincoln, Neb. The opponent: lowly Kansas. The line: Nebraska -23. The final: Nebraska 39, Kansas 32 in overtime! Guys, the Huskers needed overtime to defeat Kansas at home!! And you think they?re going to hang with Texas today? Forget it!
Yes, I know all about Nebaska?s offense, especially the ground game, which ranks 11th in the country at 207.8 rushing yards per game. But today, that ground attack goes up against a Texas stop unit that?s yielding just 47.7 rushing ypg. The Longhorns? defense is going to stuff the Cornhuskers JUST like USC did. Meanwhile, Mack Brown?s offense, which is piling up nearly 43 points per game, will pound Nebraska?s front seven into submission early and often, which eventually will open up big plays for stud freshman QB Colt McCoy (18 TDs, 3 INTs).
Oh, it?s going to be a long day in Lincoln, guys ? a long day for the Huskers. Texas, easily, by double digits!
I guess I got lucky again, huh Sun?
Auburn last week and Nebraska this week. Both lines stunk and both came through. Our handicapping methods might not make sense to you, but that doesn't mean they are wrong.
Auburn last week and Nebraska this week. Both lines stunk and both came through. Our handicapping methods might not make sense to you, but that doesn't mean they are wrong.
give me a break. had auburn last week and felt fortunate to cover. this texas/nebraska game was very similar. if texas scores a touchdown on that drive when theyre 1st/goal to jam you, youre not in the thread talking crap to sun.
If the Queen had a pair she'd be King.
The only reason I'm in this thread giving it back is because two weeks in a row I have to listen to people tell me my theory is BS. Consider it tough love more than anything else. People that don't realize the house makes lines/line moves in order to set up the average player need to know there is more to these games than "bad luck". Sure, they don't hit every time, nothing does, but don't tell us that picking games against the public/line move is BS and isn't handicapping. I used to read trend sheets and the sports section like they held the secret to winning each and every pick....and I lost every year. When I started looking for lines that seemed "wrong" I started winning.
Rant over.
No disrespect to Sun. I apologize, but I am passionate about this.
Good luck guys.
