Preview & outright plays:
It's Ryder Cup week without a Ryder Cup, so the Texas Open has the opportunity to re-assert itself on the PGA Tour and try to reclaim some of its previous prestige. It is fifth oldest event on the Tour and has a star-studded roll of honor. That is, until 1972 when the tournament was moved from its spring date on the schedule to late fall. The move from Oak Hill to La Cantera in 1995 and the scheduling of the event in Ryder Cup week only accelerated the decline. The purse offered for this event became one of the lowest on Tour and officials struggled to find a sponsor for this year's event after Westin ended their involvement. There will never be a better opportunity to arrest that slide ... next year the event is once again played in Ryder Cup week.
While six American Ryder Cup players adjusted their schedules to play in last week's Pennsylvania Classic, only three have done so for this event, though Jesper Parnevik is another who would have been at the Belfry. They have added a small boost to a very weak field. Just one player in the top-10 of the World Rankings or the Official Money List (David Toms) is present this week and just one other player from the top-20 of both lists is on view. The field is predominantly comprised of players who need to play to secure their Tour card for next season.
The course that they play was modified significantly for last year's event. Two par-five holes were reduced to par-fours, both at 474 yards, and the fairways were narrowed. Accuracy is paramount on this undulating course, but just as important will be the greens. They may be among the largest on the Tour, but more importantly, it will be the first time in several months that the players will be putting on Bermuda greens. The change will favor the Southern state players.
The three selections this week are David Toms, Bob Estes and Larry Mize. Toms is the class player in this field. Apart from winning the PGA Championship, he won the Compaq Classic of New Orleans earlier this season on Bermuda greens and will finish in the top-15 of the money list for the 3rd consecutive season. He has had a light schedule since winning in Duluth and should go close on a course on which he has finished in the top-20 on each occasion.
Until this year, Estes' only Tour win had been in this event in 1994 at Oak Hill. When he won in June in the St. Jude Classic it was the first time that he had even finished in the top-5 of a Tour event since the 1999 Buick Open. With a renewed confidence in his game, he has secured top-10 finishes in his last two events, including 2nd in the Canadian Open. His previous form on this course may not be very impressive, but he is playing better than he has done for years and would be a very popular winner in front of his local crowds.
The final selection is very speculative. Mize had had a season to forget before last week: he had missed 10 of 19 cuts and his highest finish had been 35th. It was no wonder he took a six-week break! However, he admitted to having tinkered with his swing after his opening 73 last week and the effect was immediate. He finished 67-67-65 to secure 2nd place and give himself a chance of finishing in the top-100 of the money list for the 20th consecutive year. As long as the swing changes and the new-found confidence remain intact, he has a decent chance of revealing the absurdity of his odds.
Outright plays:
David Toms to win 14/1 e.w. @
Victor Chandler,
Bet365 or
Sporting Odds
Bob Estes to win 33/1 e.w. @
Stan James [5 places option]
Larry Mize to win 125/1 e.w. @
Bet365
