Thad's March Madness Thread

[thadchr]

Going to post various thoughts/premonitions/plays all in this thread. Will try to keep some sort of record going if I post enough to make in worthwhile. I'm a little late to the dance here since the games have already started so write-ups today might be limited. Hopefully this goes well...

Best of luck to everyone! :toast:

 

[thadchr]

First play: Yale first 10 minutes over Baylor, +150! (1 unit)

(Hate to be on the other side of Box and One on this one, but I could get the early lead and still have Baylor cover for the game.)

I think Yale being fairly close to home leads to them coming out of the gates strong here. Expecting some early hustle and a lead before Baylor gets their legs.

 

[thadchr]

Various futures bets that I already placed pre tourney... I realize they aren't useful to anyone now since the games have started but I wanted to post them for record keeping's sake / good measure.

West Virginia to win tourney +2200: 10 to win 220
Duke to win tourney +3000: 20 to win 600
Texas A&M to win tourney +3300: 20 to win 660
Xavier to win tourney +3300: 10 to win 330
Maryland to win tourney +4000: 5 to win 200
Iowa State to win tourney +6500: 5 to win 325
Iowa to win tourney +10000: 10 to win 1000
Wisconsin to win tourney +15000: 20 to win 3000

Duke to win West region +680: 40 to win 272
Wisconsin to win East region +2900: 10 to win 290

Duke to reach Sweet 16 +100: 50 to win 50
Wisconsin to reach Sweet 16 +300: 50 to win 150

 

[thadchr]

Had the right idea with that Yale line but narrowly missed. Damn.

Second play: Purdue / Little Rock Under 28.5 first 10 minutes, +110. (1 unit)

Expect a real slow paced start with methodical offensive possessions and tough D.

 

[thadchr]

Another near miss, down 2 units on the day. Fuck these first ten minutes bets apparently.

 

[thadchr]

Purdue -5 second half +103. (1 unit)

 

[thadchr]

Well..... Really not my day so for. Taking one more shot here:

Wichita State -1/2 points for first 10 minutes over Arizona, +110. (1 unit)

I wouldn't really advise tailing this based on my track record with these "first 10 minute" bets today, but I really like the Shockers' guard play and think they come out strong. Wish me luck.

 

[thadchr]

And tailing Box on this one (which means it's not really noteworthy as a pick since it's not my pick per se, but I'm posting for the sake of record keeping if I ultimately decide to keep one)...

Kentucky -14, +100. (1 unit)

 

[thadchr]

I love the Shockers, I love their hustle, and most of all I love that they finally bought me a win on the day. That said, if this lines up right I think there might be a good opportunity to bet Arizona in the second half. They will likely be less lethargic and they absolutely can't keep shooting this poorly. Hoping for a big Wich St. lead at half and will maybe try to let it ride on my win.

 

[thadchr]

Well I got my wish and Arizona didn't heat up at all in the first half. I have to admit I hate betting against the team that's clicking better, hustling harder, and seems more cohesive, but the line seems too good to me considering I really think Zona is going to turn it around.

Arizona 2nd half -4, +105. (1 unit)

 

[thadchr]

...And and in-and-out garbage-time three to lose. Really tough day. At least I got Kentucky I guess. Back tomorrow, hopefully with better luck.

 

[thadchr]

Back today hoping for some better luck.

First play: Dayton -.5 over Syracuse for first half, +103. (1 unit) :0corn

 

[thadchr]

Booking this one early... It might be a bit of a homer play but I know this Wisconsin team well and I think they are gelling at the right time. Nigel is the real deal and a legit pro, will be able to play stretch 4 on a decent team. The guard play is a little sloppy but I think it's going to take a better team than Pittsburgh to exploit that. Hopefully Wisky comes in with a chip on their shoulder too from their conference tourney dud against Nebraska. Also just saw the line move so a good time to jump in.

Wisconsin over Pittsburgh, +103. (2 units)

 

[thadchr]

Looks like I should have stuck to the first 10 minute plays for the Dayton game. Cuse getting hot to end the half. :banghead:

 

[thadchr]

Missed lay-up on a fast break loses it. And he got fouled, without question. I give up.

 

[thadchr]

Dayton -3 for second half, +140. (1 unit)

Still think they pull this one out with good D and guard play. But it may be wise to fade me at this point.

 

[thadchr]

Well, had a great night live betting last night (hit on ND, NIU, and St. Joe's, including a three team parlay) but didn't get to post any of it so no real proof. Glad to turn things around some though. Also won that Wisco play, which was stressful as a fan but nice. What an ugly game by the way. :facepalm::0003

On to today. First play: Miami over Wichita State for first 10 minutes, +105. (1 unit)

 

[thadchr]

Wichita State -5 for second half, -110. (1 unit)

These guys aren't going down easily. Expect a close game down the stretch. opcorn2

Also got some live action on the ML at +1000. Wouldn't that be nice!

 

[thadchr]

Couple plays for today that I like...

Middle Tennessee State ML over Syracuse, +220. (1 unit) - I don't see the big letdown that some probably expect after their emotional win over Michigan State. I think this team is going to play with a ton of heart, and Syracuse is lucky to even be in the tourney. I can see this being close, but I think there's some real value at better than 2-to-1 odds.

Wisconsin/Xavier Over 137.5, +105. (1 unit) - Xavier is going to put up points, and I do expect a close game so Wiscy is going to have to keep pace. I think this line is a bit deflated because of the clunker that Wiscy showed in round 1. I'm tempted to make a first half play as well, and may later, but just this for now.

Also going to do a small parlay of these two plays together. Plus my previous Wisconsin to make Sweet 16 bet at +300... Let's go Badgers! :0074

 

[thadchr]

Adding another half unit to Middle Tennessee State. Really liking them and think Cuse are choke artists.