The great run continued last week, going 7-2-3. The Green Bay line went down to -4 or even -3.5 and became a best bet. I said it last week and I'll say it again. Even though I am 19-5-3 over the past three weeks, this run will not continue. I hope I am wrong again, like I was last week, but at some point I will be right. Continue to respect your bankroll and keep this in mind.
All side opinions went 7-6-3 last week and are now 90-76-8 54% over the first twelve weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
A little Thanksgiving research for those of you looking for something to play this year. The research goes back to 1983. Home teams (Detroit and Dallas) are 23-16-1 during that time. They are 11-5 in division games (Detroit this year) and just 12-11-1 in non-division games. If the home team played on the road the previous week (Detroit) and the road team played at home the previous week (Green Bay), the home team is 16-8-1, including 12-4-0 if the home team is favored by three or less (or a dog). Taking both home teams each year would have resulted in the following the last 20 years:
7 years of going 2-0
1 year of going 1-0-1
8 years of going 1-1
4 years of going 0-2
Or, in other words, you would have won money in 8 of 12 years and came out even (minus the juice) in the other 8 years.
For totals, they have gone 22-18 to the over. If the home team's win percentage is less than or equal to .667 and the away teams win percentage is less than or equal to .600, the over is 16-3 and 14-1 if the total is 45 or less. That applies to the Green Bay/Detroit game this year. Taking both overs each year would have resulted in the following:
7 years of going 2-0
8 years of going 1-1
5 years of going 0-2
Detroit is 13-7 to the over, while Green Bay is 4-0 to the over. Dallas is 9-11 over and Miami is 0-2 over. For sides, Green Bay is just 1-3 ats and 0-2 as a favorite. Detroit is 12-8, 7-4 as a home dog but just 3-3 with a win percentage of less than or equal to .273, which is their current win percentage. Dallas is 11-8-1, 7-4-1 as a favorite and 6-2-1 with a win percentage of greater than .500. Miami is 1-1, both as a dog.
Hopefully that will help you if you need it to make a decision on Thanksgiving and enjoy the games.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
Green Bay -6.5 DETROIT 44
Brett Favre has become the most expensive guy in the league to just hand the ball off. The Packers offense is rolling along right now and it's not because of Favre. They are averaging 5.8 ypr against teams allowing 4.7 ypr over their last five games. The Packers are now averaging 173 yards per game rushing. They have rushed for at least 241 yards per game in three of their last four games. Those games were against Minnesota (poor rush defense), Philadelphia (poor rush defense), Tampa Bay (good rush defense) and San Francisco (average rush defense). This week they will take on the Lions rush defense, which is above average, allowing 4.0 ypr against 4.4 ypr. But the Packers last four opponents all said they knew exactly what was coming and simply couldn't stop it. The Packers have gone to using an offensive lineman (Kevin Barry) as a third blocking tight end, which has helped them become the Nebraska Cornhuskers of the NFL. You're going to hear a lot about Green Bay not being able to win in domes and on artificial turf, etc. The basic premise of those statements is Favre can't play in domes, etc. Forget about that. He already won at Minnesota and won at Tampa Bay, where he didn't have a victory either. This isn't Favre's team right now. It's a team that relies on the run. For Detroit, this just isn't a very good team. They are terrible on offense, averaging just 4.3 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl and equally bad trying to run and pass the ball. On defense, they have stopped the run well, as mentioned earlier, but their pass defense has not been good, allowing 5.6 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games and 6.2 yps against 5.8 yps for the whole season. GB will run on this team and playing in a controlled environment, where the weather isn't a factor, Favre will look to throw the ball as well. Detroit will look to put extra men in the box and I doubt they'll stop the run, just like the last four opponents haven't been able to do. When they go man to man on the outside, Favre will burn them with the deep pass. Green Bay qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 523-402-32 (34-22-3 TY). Having said all of that, I will still lean with Detroit in this game, with a weak lean. Green Bay is now one game over .500 for the season but that puts them in a negative letdown situation, which is a 53-24-1 play against them here. Green Bay also qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 158-88-8 play against situation. The Packers have won each of the last two years here by two points and six points. But, they led both of those games by double digits and weren't able to hold the leads. With the running game going the way it is, they might be able to hold a larger lead this year. Detroit has faced five above average offenses this year. Those offenses are Green Bay (31), Minnesota twice (23 and 24), San Francisco (24) and Seattle (35). They allowed those teams an average of 27 points per game. While most don't want to admit it, the Packers defense is above average, having allowed just 17, 13 and 10 points in their last three games and just 21 points per game this year against teams averaging 23 points per game and 5.1 yppl against teams averaging 5.2 yppl. Detroit has faced four defenses that have allowed less points per game and yards per play than their opponents are averaging. They have averaged just 11.5 points per game in those games, making the score based on that alone, 27-12 in favor of Green Bay. Give Detroit a little for home field advantage but the line still favors Green Bay. I think the best play, although somewhat risky is on the over in this game. Four of the last five games played here have totaled at least 47 points. My numbers (power ratings) favor Detroit but my final score estimates, which total 42 and 49 points, favor Green Bay by 11 and 10 points. Series history and situations lean towards Detroit and taking points in a game in doubt is probably the better solution, but it's a weak opinion, with a stronger opinion to the over. I don't know if Detroit can score enough to get the over and GB may just run the ball but GB may be without Sharper and Barnett on defense, which could aid Detroit's scoring chances. GREEN BAY 28 DETROIT 24
DALLAS -3 Miami 34.5
Hard to gauge Miami's numbers because they consist of a lot of Brian Griese's play, which has been horrible. Jay Fiedler came in to spark the offense last week and it remains to be seen whether he will continue to spark this offense or it was just a one game wonder. The Miami offense has been below average over the last five games, averaging just 4.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl. The defense, however, has been outstanding, allowing just 4.5 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl over their last five games. Similar situation in Dallas, where their offense is below average with both, the run and the pass, averaging just 4.5 yppl against 4.9 yppl. And the defense has also been outstanding, allowing just 3.7 yppl against 4.8 yppl. With two below averages and two above defenses, I prefer to take the points. Miami qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 236-165-14. Final numbers suggest this line should be Dallas by 2.5 (all games) and 5.5 (last five games). Those numbers also suggest the final total will be closer to around 24-29 points, and because of that, I'll lean towards the under as well. MIAMI 14 DALLAS 13
BEST BETS
YTD 43-27-5 +32.40%
No best bets for Thursday.
All side opinions went 7-6-3 last week and are now 90-76-8 54% over the first twelve weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
A little Thanksgiving research for those of you looking for something to play this year. The research goes back to 1983. Home teams (Detroit and Dallas) are 23-16-1 during that time. They are 11-5 in division games (Detroit this year) and just 12-11-1 in non-division games. If the home team played on the road the previous week (Detroit) and the road team played at home the previous week (Green Bay), the home team is 16-8-1, including 12-4-0 if the home team is favored by three or less (or a dog). Taking both home teams each year would have resulted in the following the last 20 years:
7 years of going 2-0
1 year of going 1-0-1
8 years of going 1-1
4 years of going 0-2
Or, in other words, you would have won money in 8 of 12 years and came out even (minus the juice) in the other 8 years.
For totals, they have gone 22-18 to the over. If the home team's win percentage is less than or equal to .667 and the away teams win percentage is less than or equal to .600, the over is 16-3 and 14-1 if the total is 45 or less. That applies to the Green Bay/Detroit game this year. Taking both overs each year would have resulted in the following:
7 years of going 2-0
8 years of going 1-1
5 years of going 0-2
Detroit is 13-7 to the over, while Green Bay is 4-0 to the over. Dallas is 9-11 over and Miami is 0-2 over. For sides, Green Bay is just 1-3 ats and 0-2 as a favorite. Detroit is 12-8, 7-4 as a home dog but just 3-3 with a win percentage of less than or equal to .273, which is their current win percentage. Dallas is 11-8-1, 7-4-1 as a favorite and 6-2-1 with a win percentage of greater than .500. Miami is 1-1, both as a dog.
Hopefully that will help you if you need it to make a decision on Thanksgiving and enjoy the games.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
Green Bay -6.5 DETROIT 44
Brett Favre has become the most expensive guy in the league to just hand the ball off. The Packers offense is rolling along right now and it's not because of Favre. They are averaging 5.8 ypr against teams allowing 4.7 ypr over their last five games. The Packers are now averaging 173 yards per game rushing. They have rushed for at least 241 yards per game in three of their last four games. Those games were against Minnesota (poor rush defense), Philadelphia (poor rush defense), Tampa Bay (good rush defense) and San Francisco (average rush defense). This week they will take on the Lions rush defense, which is above average, allowing 4.0 ypr against 4.4 ypr. But the Packers last four opponents all said they knew exactly what was coming and simply couldn't stop it. The Packers have gone to using an offensive lineman (Kevin Barry) as a third blocking tight end, which has helped them become the Nebraska Cornhuskers of the NFL. You're going to hear a lot about Green Bay not being able to win in domes and on artificial turf, etc. The basic premise of those statements is Favre can't play in domes, etc. Forget about that. He already won at Minnesota and won at Tampa Bay, where he didn't have a victory either. This isn't Favre's team right now. It's a team that relies on the run. For Detroit, this just isn't a very good team. They are terrible on offense, averaging just 4.3 yppl against teams allowing 4.9 yppl and equally bad trying to run and pass the ball. On defense, they have stopped the run well, as mentioned earlier, but their pass defense has not been good, allowing 5.6 yps against 5.6 yps over their last five games and 6.2 yps against 5.8 yps for the whole season. GB will run on this team and playing in a controlled environment, where the weather isn't a factor, Favre will look to throw the ball as well. Detroit will look to put extra men in the box and I doubt they'll stop the run, just like the last four opponents haven't been able to do. When they go man to man on the outside, Favre will burn them with the deep pass. Green Bay qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 523-402-32 (34-22-3 TY). Having said all of that, I will still lean with Detroit in this game, with a weak lean. Green Bay is now one game over .500 for the season but that puts them in a negative letdown situation, which is a 53-24-1 play against them here. Green Bay also qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 158-88-8 play against situation. The Packers have won each of the last two years here by two points and six points. But, they led both of those games by double digits and weren't able to hold the leads. With the running game going the way it is, they might be able to hold a larger lead this year. Detroit has faced five above average offenses this year. Those offenses are Green Bay (31), Minnesota twice (23 and 24), San Francisco (24) and Seattle (35). They allowed those teams an average of 27 points per game. While most don't want to admit it, the Packers defense is above average, having allowed just 17, 13 and 10 points in their last three games and just 21 points per game this year against teams averaging 23 points per game and 5.1 yppl against teams averaging 5.2 yppl. Detroit has faced four defenses that have allowed less points per game and yards per play than their opponents are averaging. They have averaged just 11.5 points per game in those games, making the score based on that alone, 27-12 in favor of Green Bay. Give Detroit a little for home field advantage but the line still favors Green Bay. I think the best play, although somewhat risky is on the over in this game. Four of the last five games played here have totaled at least 47 points. My numbers (power ratings) favor Detroit but my final score estimates, which total 42 and 49 points, favor Green Bay by 11 and 10 points. Series history and situations lean towards Detroit and taking points in a game in doubt is probably the better solution, but it's a weak opinion, with a stronger opinion to the over. I don't know if Detroit can score enough to get the over and GB may just run the ball but GB may be without Sharper and Barnett on defense, which could aid Detroit's scoring chances. GREEN BAY 28 DETROIT 24
DALLAS -3 Miami 34.5
Hard to gauge Miami's numbers because they consist of a lot of Brian Griese's play, which has been horrible. Jay Fiedler came in to spark the offense last week and it remains to be seen whether he will continue to spark this offense or it was just a one game wonder. The Miami offense has been below average over the last five games, averaging just 4.6 yppl against 5.1 yppl. The defense, however, has been outstanding, allowing just 4.5 yppl against teams averaging 5.3 yppl over their last five games. Similar situation in Dallas, where their offense is below average with both, the run and the pass, averaging just 4.5 yppl against 4.9 yppl. And the defense has also been outstanding, allowing just 3.7 yppl against 4.8 yppl. With two below averages and two above defenses, I prefer to take the points. Miami qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 236-165-14. Final numbers suggest this line should be Dallas by 2.5 (all games) and 5.5 (last five games). Those numbers also suggest the final total will be closer to around 24-29 points, and because of that, I'll lean towards the under as well. MIAMI 14 DALLAS 13
BEST BETS
YTD 43-27-5 +32.40%
No best bets for Thursday.
