Thanksgiving Write-ups & Reads

[Senor Capper]

Your sweat pants are washed and pressed. Sixty percent of your fridge is home to a 20-pound half-frozen turkey. And you just tossed a few extra bucks into your sportsbook bankroll. It could only mean one thing: Thanksgiving is almost here.

The NFL is serving up triple helpings of action on Turkey Day, starting with Houston at Detroit at 12:30 p.m. ET, followed by Washington at Dallas at 4:15 p.m. ET, and finally New England at New York at 8:20 p.m. ET.

?Traditionally, we?re high on favorites with the Thanksgiving games. Everyone is home and everyone is betting,? Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club. ?This year, the games are a little more competitive but we?re still high on the favorites.?

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 49)

Korner was baffled by what he saw at some of the online shops, when early spreads had Houston favored by only three points. The Texans were nearly knocked off by the lowly Jaguars Sunday but Houston ? at 9-1 SU ? is still one of the best teams in the NFL.

?Detroit is just 4-6 and not the team everyone expected this season,? says Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Houston -6. ?I don?t understand why this came out at three. Come Thursday, who do you think everyone is going to be playing??

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)

The Cowboys, coming off a nail-biting overtime win against Cleveland, turn around to face a classic rival on Thanksgiving Day. The Sports Club sent out Dallas -4.5 while early lines offshore opened with America?s Team as a 3.5-point home fave.

?Washington is a live dog here,? says Korner. ?That win was great for Dallas and the Cowboys do have their following, but I don?t think (the spread) will go either way. It should settle in around three.?

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+5.5, 49)

The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of New England -7 for this AFC East battle, but the injury to star TE Rob Gronkowski (out 4-6 weeks with broken forearm) has dropped the spread as low as -5.

Korner says big money could be controlling this line, waiting to see how low it can go before buying back New England.

?Whoever is controlling this move definitely doesn?t want New England -7.5 come Thursday,? he says. ?I think it went down because of Gronk (who Korner says is worth a point to the spread), and he?s a difference maker. But it?s a good excuse to take this line down. There won?t be any Jets money coming in Thursday.?




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NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches: Thanksgiving Day

A special day calls for a special edition of NFL mismatches. And in the run of the NFL schedule, rarely do you find a more special day than Thanksgiving. We break down some of the underlying mismatches, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping Thursday?s action:

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 49.5)

Texans? pissed pass defense vs. Lions? WR drama

Houston?s fourth-ranked defense had an uncharacteristic day last weekend, allowing the Jaguars? second-stringer Chad Henne to pass for 354 yards and four touchdowns in a near overtime upset. Needless to say, defending the pass was priority No. 1 for the Texans during the short week.

?We didn?t play up to our standard,? Texans? head coach Gary Kubiak told the Houston Chronicle. ?We had an opportunity to start fast as a team, but then we started giving up big plays. We had a few assignment issues, which is unusual for us. That?s something we?ve got to fix. We had a couple of opportunities to make plays, but we didn?t make them.?

Detroit had its hands full with WR Titus Young last Sunday and will bench the second-year wideout after he was openly unhappy about his role in the offense and didn?t complete routes in last week?s loss to Green Bay. That leaves the Lions thin at receiver, allowing Houston to concentrate on Calvin Johnson.

Megatron was invisible in crunch time versus the Packers and was thrown to just once in the final three possessions, which came on the final play of the game. Green Bay locked up Johnson with a two-man trap in the secondary. Quarterback Matt Stafford was also sacked five times by the Packers and now faces the sack-happy Texans, who have 27 QB kills this year.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)

Redskins? rushing defense vs. Cowboys? RB injuries

Dallas has become very one-dimensional since RB DeMarco Murray went down with the foot injury in Week 6. The Cowboys managed just 63 yards on 21 carries versus the Browns last week and rank 29th in the NFL in rushing yards per game. Cleveland, knowing Dallas couldn?t run the ball, brought heavy pressure on Tony Romo, sacking him seven times and forcing a fumble late in the game.

Backup RB Felix Jones hasn?t been able to shoulder the load and has been less than 100 percent all season. Jones left the field in the fourth quarter Sunday, leaving the Cowboys with third-stringer Lance Dunbar. Murray is out again and Jones will limp into Thanksgiving with a bum knee.

Washington is doing one thing right on defense, stuffing the run. The Redskins are giving up just 94.6 yards on the ground per game (in part to their poor pass defense), and checked Philadelphia for just 80 yards on 21 carries and knocked RB LeSean McCoy out of the game in Sunday?s win. Foes are picking up the first down on the ground just 23.5 percent of the time versus Washington. Dallas has picked up a fresh 10 yards on just 22 percent of its run attempts this season.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+6.5, 48)

Patriots? no-huddle offense vs. Jets? third down defense

The Patriots? rapid pace on offense has produced an average of more than 28 first downs per game, including a stellar 51 percent success rate on third downs this year. New England hung 59 points on the Colts last Sunday, marching for 7.4 yards per play including 13.8 yards per pass completion from Tom Brady.

Sure, Rob Gronkowski is out and Aaron Hernandez is not 100 percent, but Bill Belichick?s offense has proven it?s not about the players but the system. Wes Welker and Julian Edelman ? Wes Welker 2.0 ? were targeted a combined 18 times Sunday, posting a total of 12 catches for 138 yards and one score. The Pats? no-huddle will help these slippery receivers shed the coverage for big yardage.

New York?s defense has done well against the pass, allowing just over 200 yards per game (in part to a porous run stop) and ?held? Brady to 259 yards and two TDs in their overtime loss to New England in Week 7. However, New York has watched opponents convert third downs at a 42.86 percent rate (third worst in the NFL) this season. The Jets complained about the Pats? no-huddle earlier this year, arguing about substitution rules, and could be sucking wind when it counts thanks to the short-week Thanksgiving schedule.

 

[Senor Capper]

decided to make this a Misc Crap thread.

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Don't be surprised if Bengals roll to playoff berth


Beware the Cincinnati Bengals. Armed with Andy Dalton, they are a dangerous floater in the AFC playoff race.

Dalton has helped his teammates roar back from an October funk to knock on the wild-card door. As the only 5-5 team in the AFC, the Bengals are riding a two-game winning streak and are a game off the pace in the race for the two wild-card berths in the conference.


Andy Dalton has the Bengals on the rise. (AP Photo)? Raiders at Bengals, 1 p.m. ET Sunday | Full NFL Week 12 schedule

There are few quarterbacks as red-hot as Dalton, whose nickname is The Red Rifle. He is tied for sixth in the NFL with 20 touchdown passes, behind only the Mount Rushmore QBs ? Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady ? and Josh Freeman. With go-to wide receiver A.J. Green, Dalton forms the league's most reliable scoring combination ? the two second-year players connected for a touchdown in the past nine games.

Dalton makes sure to get the ball in the hands of Green and tight end Jermaine Gresham often, but the sign of his maturity has been his effectiveness in spreading the ball to his teammates. The matchup problems created by Green and Gresham have opened up easy throws to Cincinnati's less-seasoned receivers.

Dalton had a problem with interceptions early in the season, but his overall play has been efficient (92.7 passer rating) and the big plays have been there, too. And that has helped coordinator Jay Gruden strike the desired balance with the rushing attack. Running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis is coming off his first 100-yard game with the Bengals and appears ready to help Dalton execute a better ball-control offense down the stretch.

The Bengals started well at 3-1, but turnovers and defensive lapses contributed to a four-game losing streak, including three at home. Two of those defeats were against teams they should have defeated ? the Cleveland Browns and Miami Dolphins.

A light seemed to go on after a much-needed Week 8 bye. The Bengals played well but fell short against Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, but they built on that to rout Eli Manning and the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants the following week. Last week, they pounded an overmatched team ? the one-win Kansas City Chiefs.

The schedule opens up the next four weeks, with no teams above .500 on it: Oakland Raiders, San Diego Chargers, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles. The Bengals can keep building momentum before they get a shot at revenge against division rivals Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens in the final two weeks.

Coach Marvin Lewis, who has the second-longest tenure in the AFC behind only the New England Patriots' Bill Belichick, has had flashes of success with the Bengals, but they've never been to the playoffs in consecutive years on his watch.

This week's game against the Raiders should be a reminder that Lewis' current Bengals are a much different team than his best AFC North winners of the past. Former starting quarterback Carson Palmer will return to Cincinnati seeking revenge. You can bet Dalton and Green will have more juice against a reeling Oakland defense.

As much as the spotlight has been on quarterback and wide receiver, the defense deserves credit, too. The matchup against Palmer, who is putting up yards but keeps making costly mistakes, is a chance for Mike Zimmer's group to sustain a stingy stretch after allowing 19 points over the past two weeks.

The Colts and Steelers hold the AFC's wild-card spots at 6-4, but neither is by any means on safe ground. The Colts' defense is a liability, and as good as Andrew Luck has been, Indy isn't a good road team. The Steelers are riddled with injuries at quarterback, running back, wide receiver and just about everywhere else.

The Bengals got in as a No. 6 seed last season. If they rally to get to the playoffs again this season, they will return as a more complete team with a much better chance of advancing.

 

[Senor Capper]

Houston Texans vs. Detroit Lions Point Spread - Pick

Houston Texans (9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS)
NFL Week 12

Point Spread: Hou -3/Det +3
Over/Under Total: 49

The Houston Texans were projected to be AFC Super Bowl contenders prior to the start of the season, and through ten games they've not disappointed. They're an NFL best 9-1, tied with the NFC's Atlanta Falcons, and a cinch to make the Playoffs. On the other hand, the Detroit Lions, who finished in 10-6 in 2011, have fizzled in the early going and are a lackluster 4-6.

So what has these teams, which are both in the offense and defense top ten, at opposite ends of the results spectrum? The answer is simple-the Texans are better balanced and more disciplined. Their offense is 6th in the league thanks to an 8th-ranked rushing game, which averages 136.7 yards per game (YPG), and 12th-ranked aerial attack at 246.2 YPG.

Running back Arian Foster has been the team's workhorse, carrying 249 times (more than any other back in the league) for 949 yards (3.8 AVG) and a league-leading ten touchdowns. Overall Foster is listed as the fourth-best running back in the NFL through Week 11, behind just Doug Martin (3rd), Marshawn Lynch (2nd) and Adrian Peterson (1st).

What's more, the Texans' offense also thrives through the air. Last week, quarterback Matt Schaub threw a career-high five touchdowns passes and completed a franchise-record 43 passes for 527 yards, second most in NFL history, in a 43-37 overtime win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. More than half those yards, 273 to be exact, went to wide receiver Andre Johnson, who caught 14 passes and scored a single touchdown. Needless to say, the Texans have a plethora of weapons both on the ground and through the air.

Defensively the Texans are pretty good too; in fact, they're ranked 4th-best in the NFL as they hold opponents to an average of 299.2 YPG, which includes 213.6 YPG through the air and 85.6 YPG on the ground. They're allowing a third-down conversion rate of just 25.6%, and hold opposing teams to an average of just 18 points per game. To put it simply, it's extremely difficult to move the ball against the Texans.

With that said, if any team can do it, it'd be the Lions, who have the 2nd-best offense in the league. That comes courtesy of the best passing game in the NFL with 301.8 YPG, and the 23rd-ranked rushing offense at 99.9 YPG.

The rushing game, featuring Mikel Leshoure (124 carries for 502 yards and five touchdowns), isn't overly impressive, but has helped open up things for Matthew Stafford. The young quarterback has completed 265 of 427 passes for 2,988 yards, 12 touchdowns, and ten interceptions-giving him a fourth-best 82.6 rating among quarterbacks. Obviously his favorite target is Calvin "Megatron" Johnson, who has hauled in 65 receptions for 1,117 yards (17.2 Avg) and three touchdowns. While he hasn't found the endzone as frequently as last year, Johnson continues to show he's one of the best at what he does.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Lions hold opponents to an average of 328.1 YPG, which includes 214 passing YPG and 114.1 rushing YPG-good enough for the 10th-best defense in the league.

Vesper Abadon's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I can't think of a better way to kickoff Thanksgiving Day than with this game. The last time these two teams met was way back on October 19th, 2008 when the Texans won 28-21. Before that was September 19, 2004 when the Lions won 28-16. It's a rare inter-conference matchup, and that always makes for a sweet treat.

I think that Houston may have peaked already and I also think Detroit is starting to heat up. I expect a battle on Turkey Day with the Lions pulling off a major upset which will leave many with a second stomach ache.

I'm "gobbling" up the +3.5 with the Lions!

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[Senor Capper]

Washington Redskins vs. Dallas Cowboys Point Spread - Pick

Washington Redskins (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Point Spread: Wash. +3.5/DAL -3.5
Over/Under Total: 48

The Dallas Cowboys annual Thanksgiving Day game will have a new twist this season, when they welcome their NFC East rival Washington Redskins into Cowboys Stadium for a battle between wildcard hopefuls in the afternoon contest on Fox.

While both teams enter the Turkey Day contest fresh off of victories, the way they scored those wins were extremely different.

It was just 14 days ago when Redskins coach Mike Shanahan was talking about "evaluating talent" the rest of the regular season, following an embarrassing, 21-13, loss at home to the two-win Carolina Panthers. Following Sunday's impressive, 31-6, demolishing of the hapless Philadelphia Eagles, a game where rookie QB Robert Griffin III threw four touchdowns and looked like a future superstar, now suddenly the Redskins are back to talking about "believing" again that they have a "legitimate shot" at getting back into the NFC East race and NFC wild card hunt.

But while the Redskins were busy drilling the Eagles, the Cowboys were running for their lives against the Cleveland Browns.

Dallas pushed the game into overtime with a length of the field drive in just over a minute to tie the game at, 20-20, then took advantage of a "generous" non-fumble call on Miles Austin in overtime to sneak away with a gift-win over the Browns, 23-20. With seven more sacks Tony Romo has become a human pinball, and with starting left tackle Tyron Smith out with a bum ankle against the Browns, now the Cowboys issues along the offensive front have been upgraded to critical with a short week to prepare for the annual holiday game just a few days away.

Oddsmakers set the opening point spread with the Cowboys as 4-point favorites at home, but within hours the betting public that just finished watching the Redskins look unbeatable and the Cowboys barely get past the two-win Browns hammered the Skins so much that the number has dropped to Dallas minus -3.5.

The over/under total opened at 46 and quickly moved up to 48 before the close of business on Sunday night.

The short week is certainly going to have a huge effect on the Cowboys offense for Thursday. Dallas has already been pulling guys off the street to fill roles along the offensive line, and now with Smith and his ankle a likely "game time" decision, who knows is Romo will be able to take advantage of the Redskins weak secondary (allowing 289 ypg - 29th) in the passing game.

Dallas has virtually stopped trying to run the ball too, and with DeMarco Murray (foot) and backup Felix Jones (knee) both questionable for Thursday, the few carries the Cowboys give to running backs these days might go to third-stringer Lance Dunbar.

Last week the Redskins offense looked tough to beat, but in reality it was all RGIII (and the Eagles crappy defense). The rookie was 14-of-15 and threw for four scores, but he is also the Skins best running back (84 yards, 7.0 ypc), and the workload wasn't a factor coming out of the bye week but that hasn't always been the case this season. Griffin will be facing a strong Dallas pass defense (211 ypg - 6th), and Demarcus Ware and his 10 sacks coming off the edge, so if the Redskins think they can get away with him being 90 percent of their offense again this week they might want to think twice.

Dallas did sweep the season series last year, which is part of the reason the Redskins wound up with RGIII in the draft. However, both games were much closer than you'd have thought, with the Cowboys winning at home in Cowboys Stadium, 18-16, in September before scoring a 27-24 win in D.C. in November.

Dallas has not been a good wager in games against the NFC East however, going 4-11 ATS in the last three seasons. Washington has been the opposite, going 10-4 ATS during the same span.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: With a short week and so many issues along their offensive line, I have no idea how the Cowboys will be able to get prepared for this game. But Washington will not be as explosive as they were against the Eagles. RGIII won't carve up the Cowboys, and Romo will be running for his life again on Thursday.

Take the under of 48.

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New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Point Spread - Pick

New England Patriots (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. New York Jets (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS)
NFL Week 12
Date/Time: Thursday, November 22nd, 2012, 8:20 p.m. EST
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
TV: NBC
by Badger, Football Handicapper

Point Spread: NE -7/NYJ +7
Over/Under Total: 48.5

If you can stay awake long enough with a belly fully of turkey and all of the fixings, the National Football League will treat you to a third helping of football when the New England Patriots take on the New York Jets in an AFC East battle at MetLife Stadium on Thanksgiving night on NBC.

The Patriots and Tom Brady no doubt will be the main feature of the Turkey Day primetime telecast, but it's going to be very hard for them to top last week's performance in their, 59-24, victory over the Indianapolis Colts. Brady threw for 331 yards and three scores, the Pats offense added two more on the ground, the special teams unit returned a kick for a score and even the maligned Patriots defense kicked in to the rout with two interceptions returned for a score as they thoroughly dominated the Colts and rookie QB Andrew Luck.

But the Jets are also coming off of a big victory, as they snapped a three-game losing streak with their most complete game of the season so far in their, 27-13, win on the road in St. Louis last Sunday. With 41 running plays called and only 21 passes, the Jets offense finally returned to their run-first approach and it paid off with the Jets highest offensive output in over a month.

With a three-game lead in the AFC East standings the Patriots could deliver the final knockout blow to the Jets with a win on Thanksgiving, but New York will certainly do everything in their power and then some to make sure that doesn't happen with a huge primetime audience watching on NBC.

With the point spread still less than 24 hours old, there's already been a lot of line movement on this game too. New England opened as a full touchdown favorite following their 59-point outburst on Sunday, but with a bunch of sharp money coming in on the home-dog Jets the number has dropped down as low as 5.5 at a majority of sportsbooks, with a bounce back up to 7.

The over/under total has also moved several points already, opening at 51 before dropping to 49 or 48.5 at most sportsbooks.

Of course it's going to be very hard for the Patriots and Brady to replicate last week's scoring binge. But if you look at the way the Patriots offense has been attacking this season, you'd almost expect Brady to defer to his running game considering the Jets have been gouged repeatedly by the run to the tune of 142 yards a game allowed on the ground (30th in NFL). Quietly the Patriots are 5th in the NFL in rushing yards per game (143 ypg), so at least on paper it looks like an easy way to attack and keep Brady from getting knocked around unnecessarily.

The Jets offense will likely try and take advantage of the Pats 30th-ranked pass defense (290 ypg), but with quarterback Mark Sanchez struggling (193 ypg - 29th) and the Jets receiving core racked with injury, it's a million-dollar mystery as to how they are going to do it. Plus, the Pats went out and traded for corner Aqib Talib to try and shore up their weak secondary, and the Tampa Bay reject has already made Bill Belichick look like a genius with a pick-six in his first game in a Patriots uniform.

But this is an AFC East rivalry game, and things are never that easy or that black and white.

Last season the Patriots swept the season series against the rival Jets, winning a, 37-16, decision at MetLife in November that propelled them into the post season. New England has already won the first meeting between these two teams this year too, a 29-26 overtime victory on a 49-yard Stephen Gostkowski field goal just four weeks ago in week seven in mid-October.

Part of New England's strength the past few seasons has been their ability to play on the road, going 14-6 SU and 14-5 ATS. They've also gone 13-3 SU against teams in the AFC East, but it hasn't always translated into cashing a ticket since they are just 9-7 ATS over the past three seasons.

The Jets have been hard to sweep over the years, going 6-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in games where they are avenging a loss against an opponent from earlier in the season.

Badger's Pick to Cover the Point Spread: A few times a year a really fishy line comes out and this qualifies as one of those times. If you'd has asked me what the spread on this game would be prior to it coming out I'd have boldly told you around -13.5. Then we get a 7? And it drops to 5.5? Then public money moves it back up to 7? Something stinks here. All signs point to a NE romp, HOWEVER, as much as I think I might know the people that move the lines know more.

I'm recommending a pass on this game but if you have to bet it, take the Jets because fishy lines almost always equal fishy results.

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[Senor Capper]

NFL

Texans (9-1) @ Lions (4-6)?Short week plus travel for Houston team that has 3-game division lead with six to play, but is also playing for home field in playoffs. Wade Phillips coached in Dallas, so he should know how to deal with short prep time for Turkey Day game. Schaub passed for 504 yards in dome last week (8.8 ypa) after they struggled to 13-6 win in elements in Chicago week before (88 PY), so home field means more to them than most. Texans are 4-0 on road, with all wins by 6+ points; they covered seven of last ten tries as a road favorite. Detroit lost last five Turkey Day games, allowing average of 40 ppg; they lost to division rivals last two weeks, allowing 34-24 points. Lions are 15-10-2 vs spread in last 27 games vs AFC opponents, 1-1 this year; since start of LY, they?re 0-2 as home underdogs. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road. Four of last five Texan games in a dome, three of last four Detroit games went over total.

Redskins (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)?RGIII returns to Texas (went to college at Baylor) with Redskin squad that snapped 3-game skid with 31-6 rout of Eagles last week; Skins are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-4-15 (Steelers) points. Dallas was gifted with OT win last week; 10 of their 30 first downs came via Cleveland penalties. Cowboys are 3-14 vs spread in last 17 games as home favorite, 0-3 this year; they?re 2-2 at home, beating Bucs by 6, Browns by 3. Pokes led at halftime in one of last seven games, but they?ve also only turned ball over once last three weeks (+2) after having 19 giveaways in first seven games (-11). Redskins scored 40-28-23 points in three games on artificial turf (1-2), with underdog covering all three games- they?ve run ball for 151-169 yards in last two games. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games; home favorites are 1-3. Last three Washington games stayed under the total.

Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)?Key indicator for Jets is 3rd down conversions; they?re 41-87 (47.1%) on 3rd down in games they?ve played well (4-2), 13-53 (24.5%) in four stinkers they played, losing all four by average of 23 points. In three of Jets? four wins, they had +3 or +4 turnover ratio; Dolphins are only team they?ve beaten (23-20, OT) without winning TO ratio. Patriots are just trying to outscore people; in last two games, foes converted 15-25 on 3rd down, scoring 31-24 points, but NE scored 37-59 points. Absence of Gronkowski (broken arm) is a problem. Jets are 2-3 at home; since ?08, they?ve covered three of four as a home underdog. Since 2003, Pats are 16-6-1 vs spread as road favorite in divisional games; they?re 2-2 in true road games this year (beat Rams in London), with both losses by point (Ravens/Seattle), wins by 21-24. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games; home dogs are 0-2. Last eight New England games went over, three of last four Jet games stayed under.
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Thursday

Texans -3 at Lions: Matt Stafford was picked off twice by the Packers in a game the Lions should have won. The Lions continue to make costly errors and two straight losses to divisional rivals have left me skeptical of their chances. Houston was lucky to overcome a fourth quarter double digit deficit. The Texans can take heart they have a QB who can air it out when their backs are against the wall. Matt Schaub threw for 500 and 5 TDs last week! TEXANS.

Skins -3? at Cowboys: Dallas hasn?t covered a point spread at home this season! I would have to be crazy to tell you they?re going to accomplish this feat on Turkey Day. But I am a wild and crazy kind of guy. The Skins have lost three of four games. Washington broke lucky pulling the Eagles to end a three-game losing streak. Cowboys should cover their first home game this season after surviving a scare from the Brownies. COWBOYS.

Patriots -6? at Jets: The old Jets finally emerged last Sunday. Sanchez didn?t throw a ton of passes. The Jets ran the ball well and didn?t rely solely on Sanchez?s arm. When the Jets need to rely on his arm they?re in trouble and I think they?ll be up to their elbows in hot turkey dressing. I know the Pats only edged the Jets 29-26 a few weeks ago. However, the Pats have scored 141 points in the last three games. PATRIOTS.

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Thursday

Texans -3 at Lions (49): Perhaps Houston was caught looking ahead to this game when, as more than a two touchdown favorite, the Texans needed overtime to get by Jacksonville. Detroit blew a late lead on this field and again lost to division rival Green Bay.

Turkey day has not been kind to the Lions lately as they are 0-8 both SU and ATS since 2004. But they were underdogs in all eight games. They are dogs again here and are facing a team that has itself had difficulty closing out games. LIONS.

Redskins +3? at Cowboys (47): The latest renewal in one of the NFL?s best rivalries finds 5-5 Dallas a game ahead of Washington and on the periphery of the Wild Card race. The Redskins continue to show progress under the leadership of rookie QB Robert Griffin III. Dallas continues to underperform at home with 0-4 ATS home mark this season.

Overall the Cowboys have won 3 straight and 6 of 7 against the ?Skins but are just 2-5 ATS in those games including 3 straight ATS losses in games decided by 3, 2 and 3 points. REDSKINS.

Patriots -6 at Jets (49?): The Jets surprised many with their strong effort last week, winning 27-13 at the Rams. A month ago the Jets lost at New England in overtime. The 7-3 Patriots are 4 points away from being unbeaten. Four of the 7 wins have been by at least 21 points. Coach Bill Belichick has always had a disdain for the Jets.

The Pats have now won 4 straight regular season meetings and 8 of 13. The Jets will finally have some confidence following the win over the Rams but have lost both times they hosted elite teams this season. PATRIOTS.

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New England at NY Jets

The Patriots look to build on their 7-3-1 ATS record in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record. New England is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22
Time Posted: 4:00 p.m. EST (11/21)

Game 103-104: Houston at Detroit (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 138.139; Detroit 136.551
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2); Under

Game 105-106: Washington at Dallas (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.590; Dallas 131.544
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Over

Game 107-108: New England at NY Jets (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.851; NY Jets 128.310
Dunkel Line: New England by 14 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Over

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[Senor Capper]

Strong Opinion = Detroit Lions
The biggest difference between these teams this season has been turnovers and the Texans winning their close games (4-0 in games decided by 7 points or less while Detroit is 3-4 in close games). Houston has outplayed their opponents 5.6 yards per play to 5.0 yppl against a schedule that is 0.2 yppl easier than average, they the Texans have only been 0.4 yppl better than an average team this season. Detroit, meanwhile, has outplayed their opponents 5.6 yppl to 5.3 yppl while facing a schedule that is 0.2 yppl better than average, so the Lions have been 0.5 yppl better than average. Houston is +7 in turnover margin while Detroit is -7 in turnover margin, so the Texans have been better able to turn their yards into points. Houston quarterback Matt Schaub has thrown 9 interceptions while Detroit?s Matthew Stafford has thrown 10 picks, so the turnover differential between these teams have been the result of more randomness than skill (like Houston losing only 2 fumbles all season and Detroit?s good defense only recovering 5 fumbles).

My math model projects turnovers to be even (actually, Houston with a 0.05 advantage) and this game is likely to be very close if turnovers are not the factor that they have been for these two teams. The math projects both teams at 5.3 yppl and gives Detroit a slight 18 yards edge in total yards because they tend to run more plays, and overall the math favors the Lions by ? a point in this game.

Thanksgiving day favorites have been on a roll lately (17-2 ATS since 1988), but Detroit applies to a very good 81-26-4 ATS situation that is 4-2 ATS for dogs on turkey day and the Lions also apply to a 34-8-1 ATS home underdog bounce-back situation. Detroit outplayed Green Bay as a home dog last week but were -3 in turnovers (-2 in fumbles) and still would have covered the spread despite the turnovers if not for a last minute Packers? field goal. If Detroit is negative -2 or more in turnovers again then they won?t win this game, but I?d expect the Lions to win if turnovers are even or in Detroit?s favor. I?ll consider Detroit a Strong Opinion in this game.

_________________________






Against the Spread Picks

Rot Time (ET) ATS Pick Opp Line Margin Win% ATS

103 12:30 PM HOU @ DET -3 - 6.0 - 57.4% - Top ATS Play of the Day

105 4:15 PM WAS @ DAL +3.5 - -0.3 - 57.3%

107 8:20 PM NE @ NYJ -6.5 - 6.8 - 50.7%

Straight-Up Picks

Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win%

107 8:20 PM NE @ NYJ 29.6 - 22.8 - 66.0%

103 12:30 PM HOU @ DET 27.5 - 21.5 - 64.2%

106 4:15 PM @ DAL WAS 25.8 - 25.6 - 51.2%

Over/Under Picks

Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick%

108 8:20 PM NE @ NYJ48.5 - 52.5 - Over - 55.9%

106 4:15 PM WAS @ DAL 48 - 51.4 - Over - 55.0%

104 12:30 PM HOU @ DET50.5 - 48.9 - Under - 52.4%

_________________________



UNIT = Washington Redskins @ Dallas Cowboys - COWBOYS -3 (-115)
(Note: I'm risking 2.30 units to win 2.00 units)
The Washington Redskins enter the week 4-6 and 2-3 on the road, while the Cowboys are 5-5 and 2-2 at home this year. The Redskins blew out the Eagles 31-6 last week, while the Cowboys needed overtime to beat the Browns at home as 8 point favorites. It seems as if the public is looking at last week's performances and making their picks based on the Redskins looking good and the Cowboys barely beating a then 2-7 team at home. Take note though that the Redskins are just 1-3 over their last 4 games, with three straight losses against Carolina, Pittsburgh and New York Giants. The Cowboys have won two straight games, including handling the same Eagles team Washington beat at home last week 38-23 in Philadelphia. They are 3-2 over their last 5, with losses coming against the Giants and @Atlanta. The Redskins have the advantage on offense so far this season, ranking 8th and scoring just over 4 more ppg than the Cowboys (who rank 11th in the league). But with that said, the Cowboys rank 7th overall defensively and are giving up 3 less papg than the 26th ranked Washington defense. The Redskins are also 29th in the league against the pass. RG3 has been better than Tony Romo at the QB position this year, but with Dallas' pass rush and Washington's weak pass defense I wouldn't be surprised to see Romo have the better Thanksgiving Day. Take note that the Cowboys historically play well hosting their Thanksgiving Day game. They should have an even bigger advantage with just 3.5 days of rest for each team, and the Cowboys not having to travel. Note tha the Redskins are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 following a straight up win. The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games. With very limited time to prepare for a divisional opponent on Thanksgiving Day I think the Redskins will have some troubles on Thursday. RG3's natural ability won't be enough to get them past Dallas on Thanksgiving.

Take the Cowboys to win and cover in a big divisional game.

 

[Senor Capper]

Season
Straight Up: 94-57 (.623)
ATS: 69-87 (.442)
ATS Vary Units: 307-494 (.383)
Over/Under: 84-72 (.538)
Over/Under Vary Units: 333-256 (.565)

Houston 29, DETROIT 23

DALLAS 28, Washington 19

New England 33, N.Y. JETS 24

NCAAF DUNKEL

TCU at Texas
The Horned Frogs look to build on their 6-0 ATS record in their last 6 games off a bye week. TCU is the pick (+7) according to Dunkel, which has the Horned Frogs favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: TCU (+7).

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22

Game 109-110: TCU at Texas (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 99.510; Texas 96.583
Dunkel Line: TCU by 3; 60
Vegas Line: Texas by 7; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: TCU (+7); Over

----------------



New England Patriots -7

Since losing two of their first three, the Patriots have won six of seven, including each of their last four. Their last six victories have come by an average of 19.3 points.

New England has been an outstanding investment on the road. It has covered the spread in 14 of its last 19 games that have been played away from home and have won these by an average score of 32.6 to 22.0. Its road success goes back even further.

The Patriots are a dominant 65-37 against the spread on the road under coach Bill Belichick. They are on a 52-33 against the spread run in road games in the second half of the season over the last two decades and a 44-23 against the spread run in road games versus division opponents during the same time frame.

In addition, New England is 35-21 against the spread as a road favorite under Belichick, including 19-9 against the number as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7.0 points. It is an incredible 54-36 against the spread in all games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Belichick.

The Jets are one of the worst teams in the NFL in terms of defending the run. They currently rank 30th in the league against the run with 141.7 yards allowed per game. New England?s fifth-ranked rushing attack, which averages 142.9 yards per game, should be able to take advantage. Consider that the Pats are on a 19-8 against the spread run in road games versus teams that give up 130.0 rushing yards or more per game. They have won these contests by an average score of 27.8 to 17.3.

New England has won each of the past three meetings in the series with two of the wins coming by nine and 21 points.

Lay the number.

--------------------



4* 11/22 7:30 PM EST CF (109) TCU (110) TEXAS
Take: (110) TEXAS.
TCU used to be a great defense, but they lost players and changed conferences. Now they are 41st in the nation in points allowed and have lost 3 of 4 games, allowing 38 and 56 points in two of them (multiple overtimes). Earlier they gave up 37 points to one-dimensional Iowa State in a loss and they got smacked around by Oklahoma State, a 36-14 defeat. The Horned Frogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 conference games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Texas (8-2) has been so impressive on offense behind QB David Ash, averaging 39 points, 265 yards passing and 1932 rushing. The Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a win. Grab the balanced offense with home field. Play Texas!

3* 11/22 4:15 PM EST NFL (105) WASHINGTON REDSKINS (106) DALLAS COWBOYS
Take: over the total.
Washington has not found a defensive groove this season, 29th in the NFL against the pass as they revamped the secondary in the offseason with weak results. But, oh, is this offense improved behind remarkable QB Robert Griffin, 214 yards passing per game and second in the NFL in rushing with 165 yards as a team per contest. They have struggled badly against two-dimensional offenses, giving up 27 to the Giants, 24 to Atlanta, Cincy and 32 to the Saints. It won't get any easier against the Cowboys, 7th in passing behind QB Tony Romo and a slew of weapons. This game is indoors, so look for a shootout with OC Bill Callahan matched up against Mike Shanahan. Play the Redskins/Cowboys over the total.

5* 11/22 8:20 PM EST NFL (107) NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (108) NEW YORK JETS
Take: (107) NFL Rivalry Rout: Patriots.
A division game and a rivalry game. New England was a big favorite last month when these teams met, but were lucky to win in OT. That started a bad spiral for the Jets, though, losing 30-9 at home to Miami and 28-7 at Seattle, win at Rams 27-13. The Jets offense: 29th in passing, 15th in rushing under Tony Sporano as QB Mark Sanchez (11 TDs, 9 INTs) is awful, completing just 53% of his passes. Can Tim Tebow be any worse? RB Shonn Greene is averaging just 3.7 ypc and the defense is ranked 30th against the run allowing 142 pg. The Pats come to town with an incredible array of offensive weapons, 4th in passing, 5th in rushing. They've won 4 in a row scoring 29, 45, 37, 59 points. Can the Jets keep up with that a second time? No way. Play the Pats!

 

[Senor Capper]

Cowboys/Redskins Under 48 1.1* FREE PLAY

I have a play on the side in this game as my maximum 5.5* NFL play of the day. I love the play and you will too after you read the write up, but here I'm taking the under. I'm not quite sure why this total is so high to be honest as the Cowboys have struggled to put up points while the Redskins have too at times. These two teams are among the worst in the league in committing penalties which has plenty to do with why they stall on drives and are not effective in the red zone.

Cowboys offense is 27th in red zone offense and that's mainly to do with no running game. Most defenses know what is coming and that's the pass, while the Redskins are 15th, but they go up against the Cowboys who only allow 36% touchdowns in the red zone. Cowboys are also great on third down ranked 5th while the Redskins are 30th in red zone conversions. The tape is out on the Redskins and in order for them to score a lot of points they are taking shots deep. I don't know if they will convert them, but what I like in this match up against division opponents is for a low scoring game.

Key Trends:
Under is 65-32-4 in Cowboys last 101 vs. a team with a losing record
Under is 19-9-1 in Redskins last 29 games on fieldturf.
Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.

_________________________



PW

3* New England

2* Houston


-----------

NC

CFB
2* Texas
Marquee Under Texas/TCU

NFL
Marquee - Texans
Regular Opinions:
Texans/Lions UNDER
Cowboys
Cowboys/Redskins Under
Patriots
Patriots/Jets Over

-------

 

[Senor Capper]

18-7 NFL RUN (72%)
14 OCT 3-1
15 OCT 1-0
21 OCT 2-2
28 OCT 3-0
29 OCT 1-0
04 NOV 4-0
11 NOV 2-1
12 NOV 1-0
18 NOV 1-3
22 NOV
Houston -3 at Detroit
Washington +3.5 at Dallas
New England -6.5 at NY Jets



--------------------------



New England Patriots vs. New York Jets
The New England Patriots (7-3, 6-4 ATS) demolished the Colts on Sunday, but they now find themselves favored by a touchdown in a division road game when they visit the New York Jets (4-6, 6-4 ATS) Thursday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ at 8:20 ET on NBC. The Jets meanwhile are coming off of a nice 27-13 road win over the St. Louis Rams with Mark Sanchez having a rare efficient game.

The Patriots routed the Colts 59-24 in Foxboro as apparently Tom Brady had heard enough about what a great rookie season Andrew Luck was having while having the Colts in position to make the playoffs. Brady responded by completing 24-of-35 passes for 331 yards and three touchdowns, although the Patriots have gone away from the offensive balance they displayed earlier in the season and are returning to being a one-dimensional passing attack. Sure the stat sheet says that New England had 115 rushing yards on 25 carries vs. Indianapolis, but that included a 47 yard run by wide receiver Julian Edelman on an end around, meaning that the running backs rushed for only 68 yards on 24 carries for a woeful 2.8 yards per carry. Granted you can get away with a one-dimensional offense when Tom Brady is your quarterback, but the problem with that in this particular game is that the Jets have defended Brady as well as any team in the NFL in recent years. That includes a near upset by the Jets in Foxboro earlier this season when the Patriots won just 29-26 in overtime with Brady held to a reasonable 259 passing yards.

In fact, Sanchez outdid Brady in that contest by completing 28-of-41 passes for an impressive 328 yards. Now we obviously realize that Sanchez is not nearly as good as those numbers, but the New England pass defense is that bad, ranking 30th out of 32 NFL teams allowing 290.5 passing yards per game. Thus, even though you cannot expect another 300-yard passing game from Sanchez, he could still pass the ball well enough to keep the Jets within a touchdown at home in this nationally televised prime time game. The Jets have also run the ball better in recent weeks as Shonn Greene has shown marked improvement after a terrible start and the Jets are developing a nice compliment to him in Bilal Powell, who rushed for 42 yards on just 11 carries with two touchdowns in the win over the Rams last week. He may actually give the Jets some versatility on offense that they lacked when taking New England into overtime the first time around. Meanwhile the Jets rank an excellent fourth in the NFL in passing defense allowing only 200.1 yards per game, so they have not fallen apart as many expected after losing shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis for the season.

Despite their losing record, the Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games this season including covering against another elite team in prime time in the Houston Texans on a Monday night. The Patriots are only 2-5 ATS the last seven games when coming off of a straight up win by more than 14 points.

Pick: OVER 48

_________________________

 

[Senor Capper]

ALL ARE TOP-RATED (5-STAR OR 5-UNIT)


NFL
1:00PM EST
Detroit vs. Houston
(PICK: DETROIT +3)
Certain teams are a PERFECT 0-36 ATS if they are coming off a come-from-behind win!!

4:15PM EST
Dallas vs. Washington
(PICK: WASHINGTON +4 (-20))
(PICK: OVER 48)
In a very rare situation Dallas also qualifies under the same situation as Detroit!! Certain teams are a PERFECT 0-36 ATS if they are coming off a come-from-behind win!!

8:20PM EST
NY Jets vs. New England
(PICK: NEW ENGLAND -7)
Certain division teams are a PERFECT 0-22 ATS if coming off a SU road win as a dog!!

_________________________



November 22, 2012 - 12:30 PM NFL Houston vs. Detroit *ULTRA EARLY* Burns Turkey Day ANNIHILATOR! *DET/HOU* ~ SPECIAL SportsInteraction @ 4 -110 Detroit Detail

November 22, 2012 - 12:30 PM NFL Houston vs. Detroit Burns' 2012 Turkey Day BLUE CHIP ~ Won in 09, 10 & 11! SportsInteraction @ Under 49.5 -110 Detail

November 22, 2012 - 4:25 PM NFL Washington vs. Dallas Burns' *10* Turkey Day PERSONAL FAVORITE! ~ GET DOWN ASAP! Bookmaker @ -3 -125 Dallas Detail


------------------




Happy Thanksgiving

Thursday November 22nd 2012

Thanksgiving Day Picks

Houston -3.5 over Detroit
The Lions Offense just does not have the depth this year to spread the ball around and make big plays. We all know who the ball is going to today. Calvin Johnson is the man, but the Houston Defense will keep a good eye on him. Detroit does not have much of a running game and I just don?t see them cracking this Houston Defense or being able to handle the 3-4 defense. The Texans are stacked on both sides of the ball and obviously will not take the Lions lightly after last weeks scare. Take Houston.

Redskins +3 over Cowboys
First are foremost the NFL has a superstar that they want to showcase today to million of viewers sitting around the TV with their family. It is good for the NFL for guys like RG3 and Luck to shine. Its sells a lot of jerseys and that is what the NFL is really all about. Money! Dallas just does not have the offensive line or running game to be competitive this year. This team is also thin at wide receiver and I just don?t see much scoring. This team has an easy schedule from here on out and I think will make a late playoff push in the NFC East when they get healthy. The Cowboys have talent, but injuries are hard to overcome. Washington has a very good offense that will find away to put up points. The Redskins Defense is nothing to brag about, but I think its one of those games that the Dallas Offense just does not have the man power to click and put up points. Take Washington

Jets/Patriots Under 48.5
In the earlier meeting the Patriots got a kickoff return for a touchdown and Gronkowski snagged two touchdowns. The Pats also got themselves a safety. Gronk is out today which hurts redzone offense and I really am not counting on special teams TD?s or safeties. For the most part Brady had an average day while Sanchez had a career day and he still lost. The Patriots have a banged up offensive line and this could be a game the Jets steal at home, but I just don?t trust this team at all. New England now has a really good cornerback in Talib from Tampa and the Jets just do not have the skilled receivers to move the ball up and down the field. I don?t see this game being high scoring at all. Take the Under.

TCU +7.5 over Texas
Both teams are very young with a lot of first time starters. The only thing that impresses me about either team is the TCU Defense which has so many young faces, but still are playing very well. The real key to this game lies with a man who wont be on the field playing and that is head coach Gary Patterson. This guy is a football genius that will find away to get to the Texas Quarterback. The Longhorns are so thin at linebacker and have defensive line issues that I think TCU will be able to move the ball even with a young QB. Trevone Boykin has proven he can pickup big road wins. This should be a great game and I think it comes down to the wire. Take TCU.

_________________________

November 22, 2012 - 7:30 PM NCAAF Texas Christian vs. Texas Burns' *10 Turkey Day *10 NCAA MAIN EVENT! *9-2 L11 Pinnacle @ -7 -107 Texas Detail

November 22, 2012 - 8:20 PM NFL New England vs. N.Y. Jets **EARLY BIRD SPECIAL** Burns' 2012 Turkey Day ROAST! (Won L3 Yrs!) BetOnline @ 7 -120 N.Y. Jets Detail

November 22, 2012 - 8:20 PM NFL New England vs. N.Y. Jets *HURRY FOR SPECIAL PRICING* 2012 Turkey Day *10* MAIN EVENT! BetOnline @ Under 50 -110 Detail



---------------------------

 

[Senor Capper]

TCU at Texas: What Bettors Need to Know

TCU Horned Frogs at Texas Longhorns (-7, 58)

Texas starts what will potentially be a new Thanksgiving rivalry when it hosts Texas Christian, their first meeting as members of the Big 12 Conference. The No. 15 Longhorns have played 75 games on Thanksgiving, including 64 - and the last four years - against Texas A&M. But the Longhorns' series with the Aggies ended with Texas A&M's defection to the Southeastern Conference. Texas, which finishes its regular season at Kansas State on Dec. 1, has won four straight since its 63-21 loss to Oklahoma on Oct. 13. The Horned Frogs are coming off a 23-10 loss to the then-No. 1 Wildcats on Nov. 10 and have lost three of their last four games.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Texas opened -8 and has been bet down to a touchdown favorite. The total opened at 58 and has remained steady at the number.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 60s. Winds are expected to blow south at 7 mph.

ABOUT TCU (6-4, 3-4 Big 12, 4-6 ATS): The Horned Frogs have been plagued by turnovers with 11 in their last four games. Coupled with TCU's penchant for penalties (21st-most in the country at 7.2 per game), the Horned Frogs have made life difficult on themselves. Trevone Boykin, who took over at quarterback after Casey Pachall left school to deal with substance abuse, has eight interceptions, but has been brilliant at times with four touchdown passes in back-to-back games - a school record. Running backs Matthew Tucker and freshman B.J.Catalon combined for 108 yards on 18 carries against Kansas State and will try to exploit the nation's No. 98 rushing defense. TCU's defense is 16th in the country at 326.3 yards allowed.

ABOUT TEXAS (8-2, 5-2, 5-5 ATS): Sophomore quarterback David Ash has responded well to being pulled from the Longhorns' 21-17 victory at Kansas on Oct. 27. He has completed 72 percent of his passes and thrown for five touchdowns in the last two games, and was 25-of-31 for a career-high 364 yards in the Longhorns' 33-7 victory over Iowa State on Nov. 10. Ash's two primary targets are deep threat Mike Davis (45 catches, 18.6 yards per catch - fifth in the nation, seven touchdowns) and underneath option Jaxon Shipley (40, 12.5, five). The Longhorns have allowed 15.3 points per game in facing three of the four worst scoring offenses in the Big 12 in the last three contests after yielding 45.6 in their previous five.

TRENDS:

* Horned Frogs are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss.
* Longhorns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.
* Over is 11-1 in Horned Frogs last 12 games following a bye week.
* Under is 5-2 in Longhorns last seven home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Texas will be the fourth team TCU has faced this season which did not play the week before. The Horned Frogs are 3-0 in such games with victories over SMU (24-16), Baylor (49-41) and West Virginia (39-38 in double overtime).

2. TCU, which will play on Thanksgiving for the first time since 1928, has won 46 straight games when rushing for more yards than passing.

3. Texas leads the series 61-20-1 and has won the last four meetings, including 34-13 in 2007. The Longhorns and Horned Frogs were members of the Southwest Conference and met every season from 1927 until the league disbanded in 1995.
_________________________




Patriots at Jets: What Bettors Need to Know

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+6.5, 48)

Riding a four-game winning streak, the New England Patriots have to prepare for Thursday night?s game against the host New York Jets without tight end Rob Gronkowski. In the midst of another dominant season Gronkowski broke his forearm in the Patriots? win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Gronkowski underwent surgery Monday morning and could miss the rest of the regular season. With him sidelined, the Patriots may look to run the ball more against the Jets, who are sixth in the NFL against the pass but rank 30th vs. the run, giving up an average of 141 rushing yards.

The Jets finally got back on the right path in beating the St. Louis Rams to end their three-game slide and rebound from two straight blowout losses. New York needs to go on a winning streak to get back in the playoff picture. It trails New England by three games in the AFC East standings but is just two out of a congested wild card race.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 44s. Winds are expected to blow south at 1 mph.

LINE: New England opened as a touchdown favorite but was bet down as low as 5.5 before buyback came back on the Patriots. The total has moved from 50.5 to 48 points.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: The Jets and Patriots have only played three Thanksgiving Day games each since 1985. New England is 2-1 SU and ATS and 2-1 over/under in those games while New York is 1-2 SU and ATS with a 1-2 over/under count.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-3, 6-4 ATS): The loss of Gronkowski is a major setback. Fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez has missed six games overall and three straight with a nagging ankle injury. Hernandez has been listed as questionable for several weeks and played just twice since sustaining the injury early in Week 2. Although New England expects him to be ready for Thursday, how well he?ll play is uncertain and tight ends have been a crucial part of the Patriots? top-ranked offense. New England scored 59 points in its win against Indianapolis, the second time this season it has topped 50 points. The rest of the NFL has only done it twice.

ABOUT THE JETS (4-6, 6-4 ATS): New York finally got its offense in gear in its 27-13 win at St. Louis. Reserve running back Bilal Powell ran for the first two touchdowns of his career and QB Mark Sanchez was efficient and turnover-free. Sanchez ranks last among starters in completion percentage but fired a scoring pass against the Rams and completed 75 percent of his passes. The Jets nearly won at New England in Week 7. New York scored 13 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a three-point lead with 1:37 to play. But the Jets watched Tom Brady move the team into field goal position to tie the game and New England won it in overtime with another field goal.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings in New York.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in New York.
* Road team is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Jets PK Nick Folk booted a pair of 51-yard field goals against the Rams. He has missed just three of 17 attempts this season, two of which were blocked.

2. Gronkowski scored twice against the Jets earlier in the season.

3. Sanchez threw for a season-high 328 yards in the 29-26 loss at New England.



--------------------------


Redskins at Cowboys: What Bettors Need to Know

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)

While hardly aesthetically pleasing, the Dallas Cowboys have put together a pair of wins to position themselves in the discussion for a potential postseason berth. The talk could get louder should the Cowboys topple the Washington Redskins on Thanksgiving when the NFC East rivals meet in Arlington, Texas. Dallas moved one game behind the division-leading New York Giants after posting a 23-20 overtime victory over Cleveland on Sunday.

Rookie Robert Griffin III had a much easier time of it on Sunday as the reigning Heisman Trophy winner tossed a season-best four touchdowns in a 31-6 triumph over reeling Philadelphia. Washington snapped a three-game losing skid and preserved its slim postseason aspirations. The Redskins will look to gain ground in the division as they continue their stretch of playing five NFC East rivals over the final seven weeks of the season.

TV: 4:15 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Dallas opened as high as -4 but most books are dealing 3.5. The total has moved from 47 to 48 points.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Dallas is a mainstay of the Thanksgiving schedule, going 15-12 SU and 16-11 ATS (13-14 over/under) on Thanksgiving since 1985, including a 5-1 SU and ATS record since 2006. Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day since 1985 with a 2-1 over/under record in those game.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (4-6, 5-5 ATS): Veteran wide receiver Santana Moss found the end zone for the fourth time in as many weeks after splitting double coverage to reel in a 61-yard scoring strike from Griffin. Moss, who matched a career high with six touchdowns this season, has traditionally torched the Cowboys (78 receptions, 1,125 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games). After failing to force a turnover in its previous two games, Washington did so three times during the first half on Sunday.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-5, 4-6 ATS): Wide receiver Dez Bryant benefited from the pass-heavy offense to reel in 12 catches for a career-high 145 yards and a touchdown. Tony Romo and the mercurial Bryant will likely be licking their chops when they face Washington's porous 29th-ranked pass defense, which is yielding 289.2 yards per contest. With DeMarco Murray (foot) sidelined for a fifth straight game, Felix Jones matched a career high with his third touchdown run. Jones injured his knee late in Sunday's game but is expected to play on Thanksgiving.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Washington S Brandon Meriweather made his season debut versus Philadelphia after being sidelined with a left knee injury. Meriweather, who intercepted rookie Nick Foles, tore his ACL and is lost for the season.

2. After leading the league with 13 interceptions through seven games, Romo has four touchdowns and no picks over his last three games.

3. Dallas has won six of the last seven meetings - including a season sweep in 2011 by a total of five points.

_________________________



Texans at Lions: What Bettors Need to Know

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)

The Detroit Lions have hosted a Thanksgiving Day game for 73 years. It has not gone their way recently. The Lions will be looking to snap an eight-game losing streak on Thanksgiving when they host the Houston Texans on Thursday. The Texans needed overtime to squeeze past lowly Jacksonville on Sunday but own the best record in the AFC at 9-1. Detroit has dropped two straight and sits in a familiar position - last in the NFC North.

The Lions lost to the Green Bay Packers last Thanksgiving - a game most notable for Ndamukong Suh?s stomp of an offensive lineman that ended up earning him a two-game suspension. Suh and company rank in the top 10 in the league defensively as far as yardage is concerned but sit in the bottom third in scoring defense, thanks in part to an offense that has left it in bad position with turnovers. The Lions can?t afford to do that against the Texans, who broke out for 43 points on Sunday and have yet to lose on the road.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Houston opened as big as 3.5 with most books dealing -3, which has remained steady. The total is set at 51 after moving up from 49.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Detroit is right there with mashed potatoes as a Thanksgiving staple. The Lions are 11-16 SU and ATS and 14-13 over/under on Thanksgiving since 1985, including going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004 with a 2-6 over/under count in that span. This will be Houston's first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (9-1, 7-3 ATS): After winning two straight ugly games with its defense, Houston lit it up offensively on Sunday, totaling 640 yards. Matt Schaub passed for a career-high 527 yards and five touchdowns and Andre Johnson broke out of a slump in a big way with 273 yards and a TD on 14 receptions. The Texans had held their previous three opponents to 13 points or less and are entering the most difficult stretch of the schedule. Houston will play its next three games on the road, with trips to Tennessee and New England coming after Detroit. The Texans struggled in pass coverage against Jaguars backup Chad Henne on Sunday and will have to get that fixed before facing the Lions, who lead the league in passing offense.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-6, 4-6 ATS): Passing is the one thing the offense has done consistently well this season, though quarterback Matt Stafford has only 12 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Stafford and Calvin Johnson have been able to pile up the yardage but have struggled in the red zone. The Lions had to settle for two field goals inside the 10-yard line and Stafford had a pass intercepted in the end zone in Sunday?s 24-20 home loss to the Packers. Johnson caught the lone touchdown pass in that contest but, like Stafford, he also lost a fumble. Detroit might have to run the table to make the playoffs for a second straight season, and a schedule that includes Houston, Atlanta, Chicago and Green Bay over the last six games makes that a difficult proposition

TRENDS:

* Texans are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
* Lions are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Texans last six road games.
* Under is 7-3 in Lions last 10 Thursday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lions OT Jeff Backus left Sunday?s game with a hamstring injury and is questionable for Thursday. He has started 186 straight games.

2. Schaub?s 527-yard performance tied for the second-biggest passing day in NFL history. Norm Van Brocklin has held the record of 554 yards since Sept. 28, 1951.

3. Texans RB Arian Foster lost a fumble for the first time this season against the Jaguars.

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My 8* NFL Week 12 Las Vegas Insider is on the Hou Texans at 12:30 ET.


The Lions ended a playoff drought which had gone back to 1999 when they went 10-6 last year (lost at New Orleans in the wild card round). However, history says a second straight trip to the postseason is highly unlikely for Detroit, which was 2-4 through Week 7. Only 18 of the 208 teams that started the season with the same record have made the playoffs (since 1990), most recently accomplished by Tim Tebow-led Denver last season. The Lions did win 28-24 at home in Week 8 against the Seahawks and then evened their record at 4-4 with a 31-14 win last in Jacksonville. However, the Lions have lost two straight, at Minnesota and home to Green Bay and at 4-6, it?s basically ?all she wrote.? What a ? come down? it?s been this year for QB Matthew Stafford. He threw for 5038 yards last year with 41 TDs and just 16 INTs. He is on pace to pass for about 4800 yards in 2012 but with just 12 TDs and 10 INTs through 10 games, he on pace to reach only 19 TD passes with 16 INTs (his QB rating LY was 97.2 but is 82.6 TY). WR Calvin Johnson may lead the NFl with 1117 receiving yards but he?s only got three TD catches, after catching 96 passes with 16 TDs in 2011. Detroit struggled to the run the ball last year and those struggles remain, as the Lions come in averaging only 99.9 YPG on 4.1 YPC. Meanwhile, the Texans, fresh off the franchise?s first-ever postseason appearance last year, take a 9-1 record into this game, the NFL?s best record. To get that ninth win, the Texans had to overcome a rare poor defense effort, as Houston needed two 4th quarter TDs to get into OT vs the Jaguars last Sunday. The Texans needed every one of their franchise record 640 yards to get past the hapless Jags last Sunday, 43-37 in OT. QB Matt Schaub passed for a career-high 527 yards and five touchdowns while WR Andre Johnson broke out of a slump in a big way with 273 yards and a TD on 14 reception (both franchise records). Despite a terrible defensive effort vs the Jags, Houston still comes into this game allowing 299.2 YPG (4th) and 18.0 PPG (4th). The Lions have become synonymous with Thanksgiving Day (have hosted a game for 73 years) but the team?s last win on Thanksgiving Day came back in 2003 vs the Packers, making it EIGHT consecutive losses. Detroit opened last season 5-0 SU (4-0-1 ATS) but over its last 22 games (including the playoffs), has gone 7-14-1 ATS. Meanwhile, over their last 22 games (also including the playoffs), the Texans are 15-5-2 ATS. Some believe the Texans are the NFL?s best team. Whether they are or not, they are sure MUCH better than the Lions. Home dogs have taken it on the chin the last five NFL weekends (5-16-1 ATS) and with Detroit?s recent history on Thanksgiving, I?m backing the road favorite in this one.