The 2009 U.S. Open Betting Preview

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The 2009 U.S. Open Betting Preview

The favorite for this year?s United States Open championship is ? surprise, Tiger Woods at +125. El Tigre showed the world he is pretty all the way back with his brilliant come from behind win at the Memorial. After not trusting his surgically repaired knee, Woods showed himself and everyone else he?s back, as his previously erratic driver nailed 49 of 56 fairways at Jack Nicklaus? tournament.

The Open returns to Bethpage Black, after being highly successful there in 2002. This is a public golf course that people arrive at 4 AM in the morning to secure an open tee time. Make no mistakes, this is a great track and it will play 200 yards longer then it did seven years ago, meaning you have to get off the tee or be incredibility accurate with long irons, hybrids and fairway woods.

Is Tiger a shoo-in to win his 15th major?

Though Woods has had great success on public golf courses like Torrey Pines and Pebble Beach, he?s not a lock, despite playing well. This week?s wild card in hardly a longshot, (second betting choice at +1000) but Phil Mickelson has many hats to wear this week. Lefty was a tremendous crowd favorite here in 2002 and that doesn?t figure to change this year, especially with what has gone on with his wife Amy?s breast cancer diagnosis.

Though many golf pros don?t like Phil?s act, New Yorker?s embraced him immediately, consider it like a Mets and Yankees thing. Woods is like the Yankees, big and powerful and always lets you know who is in charge. Mickelson plays to the crowd and though the second best player in the world, he?ll always be in Tiger?s shadow, making him the classic underdog.

Will Mickelson have the patience to play 72 holes of golf under control, with what is swirling around in his head? The crowd will help, but it seems unlikely.

Padraig Harrington (+4000) won the last two major titles of 2008 and has worked to get better; however his swing adjustments have not panned out to date. Angel Cabrera (+7500) won The Masters in overtime in April and is wholly capable of putting up black numbers or shooting 79 twice to start The Open. Sergio Garcia (+4000) is playing with broken heart, having split up with Greg Norman?s daughter. Just wait till he gets within earshot of a New Yorker with a few Bud Light?s in his belly. As Mr. T once said, ?I pity the fool.?

Players with the right game or playing well have to be strongly considered. Jim Furyk (+1500) is always a threat and tends to hang around the leaderboard at most majors with is steady play and is solid head to head wager. Geoff Ogilvy (+2000) and Sean O?Hair (+4000) have the length needed and are stable personality-wise to go through the grind that is the U.S. Open. One player that sticks out is Paul Casey (+2500), three wins (two in Europe) this year and a batch of other top finishes. Steve Stricker has played as consistently well as anyone on tour the last 18 months and the same no-name feel another Madison, WI. golfer by the name of Andy North had, being a two-time Open champion. (Ironically, North?s only two wins on the PGA Tour)

In looking over the head-to-head matchups, found a few that will be on my list of wagers at Sportsbook.com.

Steve Stricker -220 over Adam Scott
Retief Goosen -105 over Sergio Garcia
Paul Casey -130 over Angel Cabrera
Vijay Singh -115 over Ernie Els

The U. S. Open is the sternest test in golf. If you like a player who is capable of being a ?birdie machine?, save your money. This major is won by players who have the mental capacity to grind through 18 holes, four consecutive days. The course is set up to ensure par is a good score on every hole. The rough was believed to be a little too long right off the fairway seven years ago and Mike Davis of the USGA, the person who sets up the Open courses, went to graduated levels of rough, too truly punish the player who hits it wide.

The greens will be lightning fast, though relatively flat. Professional players are used to seeing breaks and will sometimes ?over-read? these greens, believing there is more break than it looks.

Since Davis has taken over course management, the U.S. Open has become watchful again and the theatre spectacular. Expect more of the same in New York starting Thursday.

 

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US Open Handicapping Preview

US Open Handicapping Preview

US Open Handicapping Preview

In this U.S. Open Handicapping Preview we'll try to dissect Bethpage Black and look at who we think can win this major tournament.

The U.S. Open is the toughest test of golf that the game has to offer. The par 70 layout will play 7,426 yards.

Bethpage Black, which seven years ago played to a 74.72 stroke average, this time is 200 yards longer. Three par-4 holes measuring more than 500 yards and the 525-yard seventh is longer than the 517-yard par-5 fourth hole. There are four dog leg holes that bend right to left and four holes that bend left to right. You'll need all the shots to tackle this monster. We won't dwell on the stats or results of 2002, too much has changed in the power game.

Rocco Mediate last year's runner up said, "To compete here you need to drive it in the fairway." Driving accuracy is always an important stat in this event.

No characteristic defines the U.S. Open more than the rough. The new concept of graduated rough from the USGA has been accepted by the players for the past three years. The first six feet is a intermediate cut, playable and the ball does not drop to the bottom. The second cut is 20 feet of primary rough that is dense 2.5 to 3 inches and finally from there to the spectators ropes is a brutal 4 to 6 inches of the thick stuff.

Mike Davis the USGA man in charge of setting up the courses the past couple of Opens says the graduated rough is a stern test where, "the punishment fits the crime."

The greens at the Black can get as fast as 14.5 on the stimpmeter but unlike many U.S. Opens they are relatively flat with not much undulations.

The 7th hole is now the longest par 4 in the history of the U.S. Open at 525 yards. If you hit the primary cut only a handful of players will get close to this green in regulation.



So, what are we looking for in a player to bet on in future books or matchups. It is easy to say Tiger Woods or someone that hits it long and straight, but in the past year Tour players have used their 3-woods more and more instead of the driver and who can blame them. Why? The 3-woods of today are 43 inches long the same length that drivers were 14 years ago and most top players can now hit their 3-wood 275-300 yards! Henrik Stenson won the Players Championship only hitting his driver twice in the final round, but was long and straight with his Callaway 3-wood.

Grinders win U.S. Opens. Players that can get up and down from deep rough and players that can bounce back from a bad shot usually do not fall down the leaderboard. Tiger won here in 2002 with a total score of -3 under-par. He was the only player under-par. He also led the field in GIR. Players that fire at the flags and make allot of birdies do not fare well in U.S. Opens. Par is a good score or as the USGA likes to put it, "each hole at a U.S. Open should be a hard par, but an easy bogey."

Tiger Woods 9/5

I've seen Tiger at EVEN money at many establishments after winning the Memorial. You have to remember that a good percentage of bets to win this major or any tournament that Tiger tees it up in, is on the favorite. The sportsbooks are cheering against Tiger. Yes, he hit every fairway in the final round of the Memorial, but those fairways are 45-50 yards wide compared to 25 yards in the U.S Open. He will not lead the field in fairways hit this week, if he does, he wins, easy. The New York media is hyping, "Back to Back at the Black." We'll try to bet Tiger in matchups at -250 or less or to WIN after he has the lead.

Jim Furyk 18/1

I've made more money betting on Furyk in matchups than any other golfer in the world. At the Memorial according to Shot Link, Furyk and not Tiger led the field in fairways hit with 50 of 56. Tiger had 49 which is 87.5% a personal best for him. Furyk can work the tee ball as good as anyone on Tour both ways and is putting extremely well. He won the 2003 U.S Open at Olympia Fields.

Angel Cabrera 50/1

Cabrera "the Duck" shanks it at Augusta and still won the Masters in a playoff. Talk about grinders, when he won the U.S. Open two years ago at Oakmont, somehow he got it on the greens from deep rough! The guys has power, talent and a very underrated putting stroke. He has won just twice on the PGA tour both of those wins were majors.

Retief Goosen 35/1

The Goose is always a threat at the U.S. Open. No one putts fast greens better than the Goose. He won earlier this year at the Transitions event on a very difficult golf course at Innisbrook Resort Copperhead Course.

Steve Stricker 30/1

Stricker won a couple of weeks ago at Colonial, a tight demanding track. Other than Tiger, if I had to pick someone to make a putt to win, Stricker has the purest stroke. He is not a good wind player, but the early forecast calls for showers Thursday and Saturday, but not much wind.

Longshots

Ross Fisher 120/1

Fisher had a share of the lead early in the Masters. The Englishman is sneaky long off the tee and a deadly with his irons. He had nine Top 10's in 2008 on the European Tour. He missed the cut at last year's U.S. Open at Torrey Pines, but that was his first go-round.

Dustin Johnson 125/1

Huge odds here for one of the young guns on Tour that can hit it Nine Miles. He has won twice in the past 10 months on the PGA Tour! He ranks 41st in the World!

David Toms 100/1

If you shop you may find higher than 100/1, which maybe stealing because as of this writing Toms is three off the lead at the St. Jude Classic. When he's on, he's on and there is no better course manager. He has six Top 10's this year, LEADS THE TOUR IN DRIVING ACCURACY NO.#1. One of the ways British punters, or bettors play the future book, is to buy the longshot prices and once they are near the lead or up there on the leaderboard, offer a lesser price to the betting public say 20/1 and hedge your wager. Toms could easily fit that model.

Props

Winning Score

There are no props up yet, but I project a winning score of 275 which is -5 under par. There looks like a the Farmingdale, NY will get some rain possibly on each of the first three days of competition. So, softening up the course will result in more tee shots finding the fairway and the greens holding.

Best Round

The sportsbooks will probably have Over/Under 65.5. Recall this is a par 70. I believe someone will shoot -5 under or 65 or less in soft conditions.

 

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No shock: Tiger Woods is favored at U.S. Open

No shock: Tiger Woods is favored at U.S. Open

No shock: Tiger Woods is favored at U.S. Open


Several scenarios exist in which Tiger Woods could be excluded from the hunt during the final round of the U.S. Open this week.

Woods could oversleep and miss his tee time. He could be forced to report for jury duty. He could get struck by lightning. Or he could start taking swing tips from Charles Barkley.

But the most likely scenario is Woods will play like the world's most dominant golfer, which is why he's a 7-4 favorite to win the tournament -- and why several bettors are backing him at those seemingly absurd odds.

"A lot of people are hesitant to say, 'I want to bet against Tiger,' " Las Vegas Hilton golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said. "We're taking a lot of money on him. We took a lot on him at 2-1 to drive it down. He is well supported this week."

The proposition price to wager against Woods winning is minus-200. It's a bet that makes sense, even though Woods probably will make those opposing him nervous on Sunday afternoon.

The tournament begins Thursday at Bethpage State Park's Black course in New York, where Woods was the winner in 2002.

The rest of the field includes Phil Mickelson and Geoff Ogilvy, both at 15-1 odds, and Jim Furyk at 20-1.

Sherman said Woods' odds dropped from 5-2 after his comeback win at the Memorial two weeks ago.

"Tiger looks as good as I've seen him," Sherman said. "Everybody else just folds around him. He's got the mental toughness not to fold. That's a big factor. My gut feeling is Tiger will win."

Mickelson might be a sentimental choice. He took a break from the PGA Tour after his wife, Amy, was diagnosed with breast cancer in May.

"It would be asking a lot for him to win," Sherman said. "Tiger is an enormous favorite over him in a matchup."

Woods is a minus-450 favorite over Mickelson in one of 36 matchups posted at the Hilton.

Woods won his 14th major title in the U.S. Open at Torrey Pines in San Diego last summer. He has won the Masters, British Open and PGA Championship in consecutive years, but he has never repeated any of his three U.S. Open titles, so there is at least one factor working against Woods.

Woods will be paired with Padraig Harrington and Masters champion Angel Cabrera for the first two rounds. Sherman said Cabrera, at 60-1, had the most betting tickets written on him as of Tuesday.

"It's such a rare feat for these players to turn around and win another one, especially when they're not in Tiger Woods' class," Sherman said.

When Woods left the game and had knee surgery last year, golf wagering took a big hit. It's now getting a major boost.

"We've already exceeded last year's U.S. Open handle because we've taken so much action on Tiger," Sherman said.

U.S. OPEN PROPOSITION BETS
Will there be a hole-in-one?
YES Plus-150
NO Minus-170

Will there be a playoff?
YES Plus-250
NO Minus-300

Lowest completed round shot by any golfer:
(Full round of 18 holes; 72 holes must be completed for action)
OVER 66 Minus-160
UNDER 66 Plus-140

Will Anthony Kim make the cut?
(Must tee off for action; cut decided after 36 holes)
YES Minus-240
NO Plus-200
Will Adam Scott make the cut?
YES Plus-130
NO Minus-150

First-round score by Tiger Woods:
OVER 70 Plus-110
UNDER 70 Minus-130

First-round score by Padraig Harrington:
OVER 72 Minus-120
UNDER 72 Even
TOURNAMENT MATCHUPS
Phil Mickelson Plus-375
Tiger Woods Minus-450

Jim Furyk Minus-110
Geoff Ogilvy Minus-110

Ernie Els Even
Retief Goosen Minus-120

 

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In the red at Bethpage Black

In the red at Bethpage Black

In the red at Bethpage Black

Rainy weather could help golfers finish under par at this year?s U.S. Open

When Bethpage State Park hosted the U.S. Open in 2002, Tiger Woods was the only player in the field of 156 to break par, winning the tournament with a 3-under 277.

The 2009 version of the U.S. Open, which begins Thursday at Bethpage, could yield similar results, according to Las Vegas oddsmakers.

Woods is heavily favored to win the event at odds of plus 175 (risk $1 to net $1.75) at the Las Vegas Hilton sports book.

The over/under on the winning score stands at 277 1/2 ? or 2 1/2 under par ? at the Hilton.

Although he considers the price on Woods too short to make a play, ************ is recommending a play on the over/under.

Ginsbach projects a winning score in the range of 3 to 5 shots under par, which places him on the ?under? 277 1/2.

Not only are there enough big hitters in the field to make a strong run at the notoriously long (7,426 yards) Bethpage Black course, but they could also get an assist from the Long Island weather, Ginsbach said. A 60 percent chance of rain is forecast for Farmingdale, N.Y., on Thursday, with a 40 percent chance Friday through Sunday.

?If the course softens up, it will only enhance the idea that you have to be a longer hitter to have a chance to win,? said Ginsbach, online at *************. ?That will hurt some guys in the Zach Johnson mold, who are accurate but don?t hit it out there, because their ball isn?t going to roll.

?But it will also soften up the greens. I think in Sunday?s final round there will at least be the potential for good scoring. Because of the softer conditions and enough players in the mold of Woods and Geoff Ogilvy, I think the winning score will be a good score.?

In a head-to-head matchup, Ginsbach is backing Ian Poulter as a small underdog against Kenny Perry.

Poulter placed second in last year?s British Open. Perry led the Masters in April by two strokes with two holes to go but ended up losing in a three-way playoff.

?Poulter has improved considerably in the past year,? Ginsbach said. ?He has built up his confidence and has had some good finishes this year. He hasn?t done well in the U.S. Open, but I?m projecting that his game will continue to improve. I think he has the game and the mental makeup to succeed.

?I?m not sold on Perry. He?s a good, strong driver but he hasn?t been sharp since he folded it up at the Masters.?

In another matchup, Ginsbach is recommending a play on Sergio Garcia as a short favorite against Padraig Harrington. The defending British Open champion, Harrington could be overrated in the betting line, Ginsbach said.

?Harrington is tinkering with his swing and has been looking ordinary at best,? Ginsbach said. ?Garcia is a guy I have a hard time with because of his putting, but he?s still one of the best drivers of the golf ball out there.

?Part of what we do in making projections is ask if the course fits him, if he is making strides and if he has the right tools to be a good fit on this course. I think the answer is yes.?

Separately from Fairway Jay?s picks, I?ll risk a unit apiece on each of the following: Woods not to win the tournament at minus 200; David Toms to beat Mike Weir in their head-to-head matchup; and Ogilvy to finish ?under? ? meaning better than ? 17.5 on the leaderboard.