After longshots dominated the $750,000 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland and heavily favored THE FACTOR finished seventh in the $1 million Arkansas Derby, a new cast of potential Derby contenders has emerged, many of whom will have shaky betting support at Churchill Downs, May 7. (AP Images)
When JP?s GUSTO took the lead away from The Factor in the 1-1/8 mile Arkansas Derby, the favorite failed to handle the transition to a stalking type and faded to seventh after making a mile wide bid approaching the final turn.
Meanwhile stretch running ARCHARCHARCH and NEHRO took advantage of the rapid, hotly contested pace to finish 1-2 in a close photo finish, while longshot speed type DANCE CITY checked in third.
At Keeneland, the results verified the fact that the Blue Grass Stakes looked like a wide open scramble on paper.
BRILLIANT SPEED (19-1), was first in a close decision over TWINSPIRED (24-1), with KING CONGIE (13-1), and NEWSDAD, (17-1), third and fourth respectively, despite traffic problems. Favored SANTIVA (2.30-1), was bothered at the start and never took advantage of a ground saving trip to finish a lackluster ninth.
These topsy turvy results plus the infection suffered by UNCLE MO in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last week probably has made Florida Derby winner DIALED IN the likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby while forcing many changes in most Derby rankings.
Beyond Uncle Mo and the injuries suffered by TO HONOR AND SERVE and PREMIER PEGASUS, I personally have downgraded several prominent Derby contenders in my personal rankings, including: ELITE ALEX, SWAY AWAY, SANTIVA, WILKINSON, J P.?S GUSTO, BRETHREN, ALTERNATION and CELEB?S POSSE. All faltered badly in the final furlongs of their respective 1-1/8 mile Derby preps. A few other borderline contenders such as CRIMSON CHINA failed to pick up sufficient Graded stakes earnings to make the starting field and those horses who won Graded stakes with inflated purses, such as TWICE THE APPEAL, (the $800,000, Grade-3, Sunland Park Derby) will need to improve five or six lengths to have any chance of success in Louisville.
Get all your early Kentucky Derby odds today in the Bodog Racebook.
With less than a month to go, it is obvious that the 2011 Kentucky Derby is going to resemble a roulette wheel on horseback, with only Dialed In as a proven Derby contender, a contender nonetheless who will need a very fast contested pace and plenty of racing luck to get the job done. That said, here are my current top contenders.
1. DIALED IN: Came through his Florida campaign with two important wins and his program intact.
2. NEHRO: Rallied smartly for seconds in the Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby. One of a few possible Derby starters for trainer Steve Asmussen.
3. MUCHO MACHO MAN: Was a gritty third to PANTS ON FIRE in the Louisiana Derby after throwing a horseshoe leaving the gate. All recent workouts are encouraging.
4. ARCHARCHARCH: Stepped it up a notch to win the Arkansas Derby with a well placed, well timed move at the top of the stretch.
5. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE: Bob Baffert trainee moved from a win in a one mile maiden race at Santa Anita to the Santa Anita Derby winner?s circle. Maturing on cue, threat.
6. ASTROLOGY: Another Asmussen prospect with the talent to compete with any of these, other than a fully healthy Uncle Mo. Finished a good second to TWICE THE APPEAL in the Sunland Derby and is scheduled for the 1-1/16 mile Lexington on Apr. 23.
7: UNCLE MO: Performed like a superstar in all career starts until he ran weakly in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Apr. 16, as if was (in fact) suffering from a hidden physical issue. If trainer Todd Pletcher can bring this colt around in time for the Derby, he will move up sharply in these rankings.
8. JAYCITO: Foot issues are troublesome and Baffert may not solve them, while simultaneously training him strongly enough to make a serious Derby run. Right now Baffert is not sure if he can have him ready for the Lexington, or perhaps the Derby Trial at Churchill, Apr. 30.
9. TWICE THE APPEAL: Was my key longshot to watch (in my comments before a large crowd Saturday night at the Sunland Park Charity Dinner and then again in my handicapping seminar at Sunland on Sunday morning) and then he promptly rallied to win the $800,000 race at a $50 mutuel while I only used him on exotic tickets that did not connect! My bad. Now needs aggressive training to move up another notch for the big dance.
10. ANIMAL KINGDOM: Looked like a good horse sweeping around the field to win the Spiral at Turfway Park last month. Must train exceptionally well on the dirt at Churchill to be taken seriously and www.GradeOneRacing.com's chief clocker, Bruno DeJulio is in Kentucky to give his excellent workout analysis, so stay tuned.
Others who figure to be in the Derby include speed types PANTS ON FIRE and SHAKLEFORD, plus marginal possibilities DECISIVE MOMENT, TOBY?S CORNER, COMMA TO THE TOP, MASTER OF HOUNDS, STAY THIRSTY, SOLDAT and TWINSPIRED.
Get all your early Kentucky Derby odds today in the Bodog Racebook.
When JP?s GUSTO took the lead away from The Factor in the 1-1/8 mile Arkansas Derby, the favorite failed to handle the transition to a stalking type and faded to seventh after making a mile wide bid approaching the final turn.
Meanwhile stretch running ARCHARCHARCH and NEHRO took advantage of the rapid, hotly contested pace to finish 1-2 in a close photo finish, while longshot speed type DANCE CITY checked in third.
At Keeneland, the results verified the fact that the Blue Grass Stakes looked like a wide open scramble on paper.
BRILLIANT SPEED (19-1), was first in a close decision over TWINSPIRED (24-1), with KING CONGIE (13-1), and NEWSDAD, (17-1), third and fourth respectively, despite traffic problems. Favored SANTIVA (2.30-1), was bothered at the start and never took advantage of a ground saving trip to finish a lackluster ninth.
These topsy turvy results plus the infection suffered by UNCLE MO in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last week probably has made Florida Derby winner DIALED IN the likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby while forcing many changes in most Derby rankings.
Beyond Uncle Mo and the injuries suffered by TO HONOR AND SERVE and PREMIER PEGASUS, I personally have downgraded several prominent Derby contenders in my personal rankings, including: ELITE ALEX, SWAY AWAY, SANTIVA, WILKINSON, J P.?S GUSTO, BRETHREN, ALTERNATION and CELEB?S POSSE. All faltered badly in the final furlongs of their respective 1-1/8 mile Derby preps. A few other borderline contenders such as CRIMSON CHINA failed to pick up sufficient Graded stakes earnings to make the starting field and those horses who won Graded stakes with inflated purses, such as TWICE THE APPEAL, (the $800,000, Grade-3, Sunland Park Derby) will need to improve five or six lengths to have any chance of success in Louisville.
Get all your early Kentucky Derby odds today in the Bodog Racebook.
With less than a month to go, it is obvious that the 2011 Kentucky Derby is going to resemble a roulette wheel on horseback, with only Dialed In as a proven Derby contender, a contender nonetheless who will need a very fast contested pace and plenty of racing luck to get the job done. That said, here are my current top contenders.
1. DIALED IN: Came through his Florida campaign with two important wins and his program intact.
2. NEHRO: Rallied smartly for seconds in the Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby. One of a few possible Derby starters for trainer Steve Asmussen.
3. MUCHO MACHO MAN: Was a gritty third to PANTS ON FIRE in the Louisiana Derby after throwing a horseshoe leaving the gate. All recent workouts are encouraging.
4. ARCHARCHARCH: Stepped it up a notch to win the Arkansas Derby with a well placed, well timed move at the top of the stretch.
5. MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE: Bob Baffert trainee moved from a win in a one mile maiden race at Santa Anita to the Santa Anita Derby winner?s circle. Maturing on cue, threat.
6. ASTROLOGY: Another Asmussen prospect with the talent to compete with any of these, other than a fully healthy Uncle Mo. Finished a good second to TWICE THE APPEAL in the Sunland Derby and is scheduled for the 1-1/16 mile Lexington on Apr. 23.
7: UNCLE MO: Performed like a superstar in all career starts until he ran weakly in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Apr. 16, as if was (in fact) suffering from a hidden physical issue. If trainer Todd Pletcher can bring this colt around in time for the Derby, he will move up sharply in these rankings.
8. JAYCITO: Foot issues are troublesome and Baffert may not solve them, while simultaneously training him strongly enough to make a serious Derby run. Right now Baffert is not sure if he can have him ready for the Lexington, or perhaps the Derby Trial at Churchill, Apr. 30.
9. TWICE THE APPEAL: Was my key longshot to watch (in my comments before a large crowd Saturday night at the Sunland Park Charity Dinner and then again in my handicapping seminar at Sunland on Sunday morning) and then he promptly rallied to win the $800,000 race at a $50 mutuel while I only used him on exotic tickets that did not connect! My bad. Now needs aggressive training to move up another notch for the big dance.
10. ANIMAL KINGDOM: Looked like a good horse sweeping around the field to win the Spiral at Turfway Park last month. Must train exceptionally well on the dirt at Churchill to be taken seriously and www.GradeOneRacing.com's chief clocker, Bruno DeJulio is in Kentucky to give his excellent workout analysis, so stay tuned.
Others who figure to be in the Derby include speed types PANTS ON FIRE and SHAKLEFORD, plus marginal possibilities DECISIVE MOMENT, TOBY?S CORNER, COMMA TO THE TOP, MASTER OF HOUNDS, STAY THIRSTY, SOLDAT and TWINSPIRED.
Get all your early Kentucky Derby odds today in the Bodog Racebook.
