Round 1 plays (4pts):
Justin Rose to beat Henrik Stenson +100 @ Paddy Power
There is added pressure on Stenson this year as the defending FedEx Champion and particularly with the press talking about a 'FedEx Champion jinx' - the first five champions failed to make it to the Tour Championship the following year. I doubt that will happen this year, but there is still extra pressure on the Swede and that talk of a jinx will only disappear after a strong performance this week. That may be difficult on a course that he hasn't previously played, whereas Rose finished 15th year in 2010. With two wins in his last five starts, he could be the perfect matchup opponent to take advantage of that pressure on the Swede.
Hunter Mahan to beat Bubba Watson +110 @ 5Dimes
Watson looks a player to oppose this week - since finishing 3rd in the Memorial Tournament almost three months ago, his finishes have been mc-31st-16th-mc-37th-65th and he is in danger of falling out of the top-10 on the World Rankings. Mahan has finished 15th and 7th in his last two events against two very strong fields and looks good value at these odds.
Marc Leishman to beat Graham DeLaet +101 @ Pinnacle [also available @ 5Dimes, The Greek and Carib]
Again there should be value in these odds. Leishman has finished ahead of DeLaet in four of their last six common events and with four finishes of 11th or better in his last six starts, he is playing well enough to improve on his 31st place finish here in 2010. DeLaet has also shown some form in the last month - two top-15 finishes - but he finished 109th (of 121) on this course last time so he will need to improve significantly if he is to be competitive this time around.
[unofficial rd1 system plays: Palmer tb Casey -105; Leishman tb Matsuyama -111]