THE BEST FUTURES BET ON THE BOARD RIGHT NOW
When I first saw this line, I had to rub my eyes to make sure I wasn't seeing things. It's rare to see a futures bet so totally out of whack, but here's an exception.
Before pointing out the play to you, let me say that futures bets are perhaps the worst bets in all of sportsbetting. The house advantage on these plays is enormous -- it's like betting into a 40-cent line in baseball. Outside the casino it would be called "rape." The reason why sportsbooks get away with thievery is that most futures bettors are casual fans and squares. They bet their favorite teams and make wagers to be in action for the entire season. Not only do the books hold a larger percentage than straight bets, but they hold onto your money for a longer period of time. Except in rare instances, I do not recommend futures wagers on any sport -- no matter how enticing the bet might be.
Now, to one exception.
Here's a question for you football fans -- what would you make the regular season wins -- the O/U on wins -- for the Indianapolis Colts?
I'll try not to get too technical here, but I'd have this total at 8 to 9 games. A reasonable argument can be made the total could be as low as 8, but certainly no higher than 9. Most sportsbooks tend to agree with this number. The O/U total posted at every book I have seen is 9. That means, oddsmakers expect the Colts to finish 9-7 this season. However, 9 wins might be optimistic. Keep in mind that the Colts went 6-10 last season and fielded one of the worst defenses in NFL history. Now, the Colts come into 2002 with a new head coach. 9-7 is optimistic. I would put this team's win total at 8 games (my prediction) -- or 8.5 for betting purposes (odds).
Go along with me here just for the sake of argument and agree that betting the UNDER 9 has a certain amount of appeal. Assuming the Colts finish 8-8 or worse, we would win our bet. Laying -110 on the bet would be a reasonable wager. If you were to bet UNDER 9 and lay -110, no one reasonable NFL expert would think that to be unusual.
Now, here's where the value comes in: You have probably been asking, why did my eyes pop out of my head when I saw the game wins O/U on he Colts? To see for yourself, go to Olympic Sports (a betting site I no longer endorse, by the way -- but here I will make an exception). Click the football futures, then the regular season wins page. Scroll down to the Indianapolis Colts. What do you see?
INDIANAPOLIS OVER 9???.-220
INDIANAPOLIS UNDER 9??.+180
That's right, the UNDER is paying back $180! On a proposition that I consider to be close to 50-50, we are getting paid off at 9-5! That's like flipping a coin and getting back $1.80 in profit for a $1 wager. That's what I call VALUE, with a capital "V."
Obviously, the Colts are not guaranteed to finish 9-7 or worse. But, keep in mind that to lose this bet, the Colts must finish at least 10-6 or better. I don't see that happening with their monumental defensive problems, and some lingering doubts about QB Manning's on the field judgment and effectiveness. I look at the Colts schedule and it shows only two easy wins -- two games against the expansion Houston Texans. The Colts play a fairly tough schedule with games versus Miami, Pittsburgh, Tennessee (2), Philadelphia, Denver, Washington, and NY Giants. Assuming a 4-4 split against these formidable foes, that means Indy would have to go 6-2 against Houston, Houston, Jacksonville, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Dallas, and Cleveland.
Bottom Line -- This team has 8-8 written all over it. Even if you think Colts will rebound strong after a 6-10 season, the payback at +180 makes this one of the best futures bets I have seen in a long time.
When I first saw this line, I had to rub my eyes to make sure I wasn't seeing things. It's rare to see a futures bet so totally out of whack, but here's an exception.
Before pointing out the play to you, let me say that futures bets are perhaps the worst bets in all of sportsbetting. The house advantage on these plays is enormous -- it's like betting into a 40-cent line in baseball. Outside the casino it would be called "rape." The reason why sportsbooks get away with thievery is that most futures bettors are casual fans and squares. They bet their favorite teams and make wagers to be in action for the entire season. Not only do the books hold a larger percentage than straight bets, but they hold onto your money for a longer period of time. Except in rare instances, I do not recommend futures wagers on any sport -- no matter how enticing the bet might be.
Now, to one exception.
Here's a question for you football fans -- what would you make the regular season wins -- the O/U on wins -- for the Indianapolis Colts?
I'll try not to get too technical here, but I'd have this total at 8 to 9 games. A reasonable argument can be made the total could be as low as 8, but certainly no higher than 9. Most sportsbooks tend to agree with this number. The O/U total posted at every book I have seen is 9. That means, oddsmakers expect the Colts to finish 9-7 this season. However, 9 wins might be optimistic. Keep in mind that the Colts went 6-10 last season and fielded one of the worst defenses in NFL history. Now, the Colts come into 2002 with a new head coach. 9-7 is optimistic. I would put this team's win total at 8 games (my prediction) -- or 8.5 for betting purposes (odds).
Go along with me here just for the sake of argument and agree that betting the UNDER 9 has a certain amount of appeal. Assuming the Colts finish 8-8 or worse, we would win our bet. Laying -110 on the bet would be a reasonable wager. If you were to bet UNDER 9 and lay -110, no one reasonable NFL expert would think that to be unusual.
Now, here's where the value comes in: You have probably been asking, why did my eyes pop out of my head when I saw the game wins O/U on he Colts? To see for yourself, go to Olympic Sports (a betting site I no longer endorse, by the way -- but here I will make an exception). Click the football futures, then the regular season wins page. Scroll down to the Indianapolis Colts. What do you see?
INDIANAPOLIS OVER 9???.-220
INDIANAPOLIS UNDER 9??.+180
That's right, the UNDER is paying back $180! On a proposition that I consider to be close to 50-50, we are getting paid off at 9-5! That's like flipping a coin and getting back $1.80 in profit for a $1 wager. That's what I call VALUE, with a capital "V."
Obviously, the Colts are not guaranteed to finish 9-7 or worse. But, keep in mind that to lose this bet, the Colts must finish at least 10-6 or better. I don't see that happening with their monumental defensive problems, and some lingering doubts about QB Manning's on the field judgment and effectiveness. I look at the Colts schedule and it shows only two easy wins -- two games against the expansion Houston Texans. The Colts play a fairly tough schedule with games versus Miami, Pittsburgh, Tennessee (2), Philadelphia, Denver, Washington, and NY Giants. Assuming a 4-4 split against these formidable foes, that means Indy would have to go 6-2 against Houston, Houston, Jacksonville, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, Baltimore, Dallas, and Cleveland.
Bottom Line -- This team has 8-8 written all over it. Even if you think Colts will rebound strong after a 6-10 season, the payback at +180 makes this one of the best futures bets I have seen in a long time.
