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PWilly
Preview of the AFC & NFC Conference Championship Games and Reflections on Last Week?s Divisional Playoff Games
This week I take a look at the four teams left in the NFL playoffs by previewing the AFC & NFC championship games. Both games should be high intensity with the winners moving on to play in Super Bowl XL in Detroit, Michigan. Also, I reflect back on last week?s divisional playoff games.
AFC Championship Game
Pittsburgh vs. Denver (-3): Well, did anyone really think we would see the Broncos playing another home game in the playoffs? I have to count myself as one of those who did not expect this. The Steelers went into Indianapolis and stuck it to the Colts. Now, they go on the road once again to face a Broncos team that knocked off the defending champions with an impressive performance of their own. These teams have not faced each other this season. The Steelers are playing on the road in the playoffs for the third consecutive weekend and history is against them. But, history was against them heading into the Colts game, considering a sixth seed had never made it to a championship game since they adopted the six team format, until now. Both of these teams love to run the ball and are effective in doing so, but yards may be tough to come by considering the Broncos have the second best run defense and the Steelers have the third best run defense this year. If there is not much room to run, then which ever team has a more effective passing game in the thin air at Mile High Stadium and which ever team does not turn the ball over, should be on their way to Detroit. I believe with the home-field advantage the Broncos have and having played one less game, this will factor into the outcome of the game. The Steelers have proven they can win on the road, but three wins on the road in the playoffs is asking for quite a bit. Last week, I went with the Colts to knock off my pre-season Super Bowl pick. This week I will go with the Broncos to end the Steelers season. If I am wrong, well, the lesson I should take from this is to never change my initial pick and maintain faith in my selections. I see this game being close, but the final score will be 23-17. Pick: Broncos
NFC Championship Game
Carolina vs. Seattle (-4): The Panthers, like the Steelers are playing for the third consecutive week on the road in the playoffs. The Panthers are the ultimate road warriors, with quarterback Jake Delhomme having won all of his road playoff starts for his career. Also, like the Steelers and Broncos, these teams feature strong run defenses. Carolina has the fourth best run defense and Seattle has the fifth best run defense this season. This game, like the AFC championship game, could come down to the team that is more effective in their passing game. On paper, that appears to be the Panthers with the explosive season Steve Smith is having. The Panthers will now go with running back Nick Goings after losing DeShaun Foster for the rest of the season with a broken ankle. Having already lost Stephen Davis to injury earlier in the season, they are testing their depth at the running back position. So, Steve Smith should continue to be the focal point for the Carolina offense and he must be the focal point for the Seattle defense. As for the Seahawks, they also come into this game with a major concern at the running back position, after Shaun Alexander suffered a concussion in last week?s game against the Redskins that forced him to miss the majority of that game. He believes he is ready to go, but what will be the lingering effects from the concussion? He is also facing a great Panthers run defense. I expect to see defensive end Julius Peppers play after injuring his shoulder in last week?s game against the Bears, but how effective will he be? If he has recovered from his shoulder injury, the Seahawks should be concerned. Especially, after the arrest of starting right tackle Sean Locklear for domestic violence. The Panthers now face a playoff experienced quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck, unlike the previous two quarterbacks they have faced this post-season. If Alexander is not at 100%, coming off his concussion, the Panthers will then shift their attention to stopping Hasselbeck and wide receiver Darrell Jackson. Like I mentioned in my analysis of the Steelers and Broncos game, I believe the home-field advantage and the Seahawks having played one less game will factor into the outcome of this game. I look for a healthy Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks finding a way to keep Steve Smith in check in a close game. Also, I see Delhomme turning the ball over a couple of times, which will help Seattle to a 23-21 victory. Pick: Panthers
Reflections from last week?s divisional playoff games??
Seahawks/Redskins: This game started off the wonderful weekend of NFL playoff football we were privileged to watch. The Seahawks faced adversity early on in the game when Shaun Alexander was forced out of action due to his concussion. They battled back and Hasselbeck showed great poise in keeping his team together after losing Alexander. The Redskins fought hard, but the unfortunate field goal miss by kicker John Hall that would have cut the Seahawks lead to four points in the fourth quarter was too much too overcome, after the Seahawks tacked on a field goal of their own to put the margin at ten points. For me, the John Hall field goal attempt was a big miss and the Santana Moss drop on fourth-down in the end zone in the final minute of the game, gave my colleague Fat Pat a victory ATS.
Broncos/Patriots: The Saturday late game featured these two teams and we were treated to a fabulous matchup. The Patriots always seem to be on the winning end of instant replay calls, but their good fortune finally changed. Defensive back Champ Bailey intercepted Tom Brady?s pass from his own end zone and proceeded to run it for a length of the field touchdown. Tight end Ben Watson never gave up on the play and made an outstanding hustle play to knock Bailey out at the one-yard line as he was going in for a touchdown. This created some controversy because Bailey let go of the ball as Watson pushed him out of bounds in what led to a review of the play to see if the ball went through the end zone, which would have given the Patriots a touchback. This was a typical play the Patriots have become accustomed to getting called their way, but not this time. There was no visible evidence that Bailey fumbled the ball into the end zone and the Broncos were on their way to playing in the AFC championship game. Also, the Patriots uncharacteristically turned the ball over, which the Broncos took full advantage of.
Steelers/Colts: Wow, what a game this was! The Steelers jumped out on top early stunning the Colts and their fans. They completely dominated the game for three quarters. The Colts then got back into the game as a result of some poor officiating calls. The worst was the overturning of Troy Polamalu?s interception, which gave the Colts a second chance and they capitalized on the poor call by scoring a touchdown. Then, when the Steelers took possession of the ball on downs at the end of the game in what appeared to give them a trip to the AFC championship game, the improbable happened. Running back Jerome Bettis fumbled the ball at the Colts two-yard line with the Colts Nick Harper picking up the ball and proceeding to return it all the way for a touchdown. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger made a game saving tackle at the Colts forty-two yard line, but the Colts still had a chance to tie the game with a field goal from Mike Vanderjagt. The kick went wide right and the Steelers deservingly advanced. It would have been a shame had the Steelers lost this game. Quarterback Peyton Manning choked once again in the playoffs, only to point out problems with protection from his offensive line, instead of pointing out his own flaws. The guy can?t handle the pressure of playoff football and if he thinks it should be a walk in the park for him like it is in the regular season, he needs to take a seat and let another quarterback that is willing to battle out there play in his place.
Panthers/Bears: The Panthers took it to the Bears in an unusually high scoring game in what was expected to be a defensive battle. Wide receiver Steve Smith was spectacular. The Panthers started the game as the aggressor and played throughout the game as the aggressor. I was surprised to see the Bears defense be dominated by the Panthers. However, I was not surprised to see the Panthers win the game. This is a tough road team and they were going against a quarterback that did not have any playoff experience and played very little throughout the season. But, quarterback Rex Grossman performed admirably and this came down to the Panthers finding holes in the Bears defense. The Panthers/Bears game topped off a great weekend of divisional playoff football.
Statistical contributions for this article were obtained from espn.com
PWilly
Preview of the AFC & NFC Conference Championship Games and Reflections on Last Week?s Divisional Playoff Games
This week I take a look at the four teams left in the NFL playoffs by previewing the AFC & NFC championship games. Both games should be high intensity with the winners moving on to play in Super Bowl XL in Detroit, Michigan. Also, I reflect back on last week?s divisional playoff games.
AFC Championship Game
Pittsburgh vs. Denver (-3): Well, did anyone really think we would see the Broncos playing another home game in the playoffs? I have to count myself as one of those who did not expect this. The Steelers went into Indianapolis and stuck it to the Colts. Now, they go on the road once again to face a Broncos team that knocked off the defending champions with an impressive performance of their own. These teams have not faced each other this season. The Steelers are playing on the road in the playoffs for the third consecutive weekend and history is against them. But, history was against them heading into the Colts game, considering a sixth seed had never made it to a championship game since they adopted the six team format, until now. Both of these teams love to run the ball and are effective in doing so, but yards may be tough to come by considering the Broncos have the second best run defense and the Steelers have the third best run defense this year. If there is not much room to run, then which ever team has a more effective passing game in the thin air at Mile High Stadium and which ever team does not turn the ball over, should be on their way to Detroit. I believe with the home-field advantage the Broncos have and having played one less game, this will factor into the outcome of the game. The Steelers have proven they can win on the road, but three wins on the road in the playoffs is asking for quite a bit. Last week, I went with the Colts to knock off my pre-season Super Bowl pick. This week I will go with the Broncos to end the Steelers season. If I am wrong, well, the lesson I should take from this is to never change my initial pick and maintain faith in my selections. I see this game being close, but the final score will be 23-17. Pick: Broncos
NFC Championship Game
Carolina vs. Seattle (-4): The Panthers, like the Steelers are playing for the third consecutive week on the road in the playoffs. The Panthers are the ultimate road warriors, with quarterback Jake Delhomme having won all of his road playoff starts for his career. Also, like the Steelers and Broncos, these teams feature strong run defenses. Carolina has the fourth best run defense and Seattle has the fifth best run defense this season. This game, like the AFC championship game, could come down to the team that is more effective in their passing game. On paper, that appears to be the Panthers with the explosive season Steve Smith is having. The Panthers will now go with running back Nick Goings after losing DeShaun Foster for the rest of the season with a broken ankle. Having already lost Stephen Davis to injury earlier in the season, they are testing their depth at the running back position. So, Steve Smith should continue to be the focal point for the Carolina offense and he must be the focal point for the Seattle defense. As for the Seahawks, they also come into this game with a major concern at the running back position, after Shaun Alexander suffered a concussion in last week?s game against the Redskins that forced him to miss the majority of that game. He believes he is ready to go, but what will be the lingering effects from the concussion? He is also facing a great Panthers run defense. I expect to see defensive end Julius Peppers play after injuring his shoulder in last week?s game against the Bears, but how effective will he be? If he has recovered from his shoulder injury, the Seahawks should be concerned. Especially, after the arrest of starting right tackle Sean Locklear for domestic violence. The Panthers now face a playoff experienced quarterback in Matt Hasselbeck, unlike the previous two quarterbacks they have faced this post-season. If Alexander is not at 100%, coming off his concussion, the Panthers will then shift their attention to stopping Hasselbeck and wide receiver Darrell Jackson. Like I mentioned in my analysis of the Steelers and Broncos game, I believe the home-field advantage and the Seahawks having played one less game will factor into the outcome of this game. I look for a healthy Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks finding a way to keep Steve Smith in check in a close game. Also, I see Delhomme turning the ball over a couple of times, which will help Seattle to a 23-21 victory. Pick: Panthers
Reflections from last week?s divisional playoff games??
Seahawks/Redskins: This game started off the wonderful weekend of NFL playoff football we were privileged to watch. The Seahawks faced adversity early on in the game when Shaun Alexander was forced out of action due to his concussion. They battled back and Hasselbeck showed great poise in keeping his team together after losing Alexander. The Redskins fought hard, but the unfortunate field goal miss by kicker John Hall that would have cut the Seahawks lead to four points in the fourth quarter was too much too overcome, after the Seahawks tacked on a field goal of their own to put the margin at ten points. For me, the John Hall field goal attempt was a big miss and the Santana Moss drop on fourth-down in the end zone in the final minute of the game, gave my colleague Fat Pat a victory ATS.
Broncos/Patriots: The Saturday late game featured these two teams and we were treated to a fabulous matchup. The Patriots always seem to be on the winning end of instant replay calls, but their good fortune finally changed. Defensive back Champ Bailey intercepted Tom Brady?s pass from his own end zone and proceeded to run it for a length of the field touchdown. Tight end Ben Watson never gave up on the play and made an outstanding hustle play to knock Bailey out at the one-yard line as he was going in for a touchdown. This created some controversy because Bailey let go of the ball as Watson pushed him out of bounds in what led to a review of the play to see if the ball went through the end zone, which would have given the Patriots a touchback. This was a typical play the Patriots have become accustomed to getting called their way, but not this time. There was no visible evidence that Bailey fumbled the ball into the end zone and the Broncos were on their way to playing in the AFC championship game. Also, the Patriots uncharacteristically turned the ball over, which the Broncos took full advantage of.
Steelers/Colts: Wow, what a game this was! The Steelers jumped out on top early stunning the Colts and their fans. They completely dominated the game for three quarters. The Colts then got back into the game as a result of some poor officiating calls. The worst was the overturning of Troy Polamalu?s interception, which gave the Colts a second chance and they capitalized on the poor call by scoring a touchdown. Then, when the Steelers took possession of the ball on downs at the end of the game in what appeared to give them a trip to the AFC championship game, the improbable happened. Running back Jerome Bettis fumbled the ball at the Colts two-yard line with the Colts Nick Harper picking up the ball and proceeding to return it all the way for a touchdown. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger made a game saving tackle at the Colts forty-two yard line, but the Colts still had a chance to tie the game with a field goal from Mike Vanderjagt. The kick went wide right and the Steelers deservingly advanced. It would have been a shame had the Steelers lost this game. Quarterback Peyton Manning choked once again in the playoffs, only to point out problems with protection from his offensive line, instead of pointing out his own flaws. The guy can?t handle the pressure of playoff football and if he thinks it should be a walk in the park for him like it is in the regular season, he needs to take a seat and let another quarterback that is willing to battle out there play in his place.
Panthers/Bears: The Panthers took it to the Bears in an unusually high scoring game in what was expected to be a defensive battle. Wide receiver Steve Smith was spectacular. The Panthers started the game as the aggressor and played throughout the game as the aggressor. I was surprised to see the Bears defense be dominated by the Panthers. However, I was not surprised to see the Panthers win the game. This is a tough road team and they were going against a quarterback that did not have any playoff experience and played very little throughout the season. But, quarterback Rex Grossman performed admirably and this came down to the Panthers finding holes in the Bears defense. The Panthers/Bears game topped off a great weekend of divisional playoff football.
Statistical contributions for this article were obtained from espn.com
