THE BIG ONE - Write-Ups

[Senor Capper]

ANALYSIS

Here it is. For all the marbles, & for the first time since 1996, a same-season rematch will determine the national champion. As everyone is aware, the
Tigers of LSU, and the Crimson Tide of Alabama were ranked #1 & #2, when they met on November 5th, in Tuscaloosa, with the Tigers prevailing 9-6, in OT. That marked only the 23rd regular season matchup between the top two teams in the AP rankings, & it was the 2nd lowest scoring showdown of those 23, with just the famous 0-0 tie between Army & NotreDame in 1946 resulting in less pts. The buildup to that game was reminiscent of a SuperBowl, in that
both teams had byes the previous week. The Tide certainly had their chances, but missed 4 FGs, & tossed a goal-line interception. Although a case can be made for OklahomaSt & BoiseSt (just 1 excruciating loss apiece), the 'Tide is the most legitimate challenger to the perfect Tigers. As noted above, the stats of the 2 are amazingly similar, except for 'Bama edges in both FDs & passing, & the Tigers' advantage in the all-important TO column (#1 in the nation). Just
about every fan knows it, but we reiterate the brilliance of these 2 "D"s, which are the unquestioned stop unit leaders in the land. 'Bama "D": #1 in rushing, passing, passing efficiency, total, & scoring. LSU "D": 2nd, 8th, 3rd, 2nd & 2nd in those categories. Bengals are a brilliant 5-1 SU & ATS in bowls under Miles (36-15 ppg edge), while Tide is 3-1 SU & ATS in bowls under Saban, covering last 2 by 12 & 32 pts. Richardson, McCarron, Maze, Jefferson, Ford,
Ware, Mathieu, along with those spectacular defenses. It has it all. First BCS title match between teams from the same conference goes to avenging dog.


PROPHECY: ALABAMA 22 - Lsu 16

 

[Senor Capper]

Alabama over Lsu by 3

This game could end up being college football?s answer to the ?Thrilla In Manila,? that epic heavyweight war between Muhammad Ali and Joe Fazier. But Ali-Frazier were tied 1-1 heading to the Philippines whereas Les Miles? LSU Tigers have taken the last two from Nick Saban?s Tide. Let?s face it: how many times have you watched an overtime game that ended with a 9-6 score, like the fi rst meeting between these two, and immediately thought, ?Wow? what a GREAT game.? Not often, we?re sure, but that first battle
between these SEC titans in Tuscaloosa was so nerve-wrackingly intense the ending suggested that unfi nished business might lay ahead at season?s end. And fortunately for those eagerly awaiting a rematch, all the dominoes fell in the right place. In fact, this is the fi rst time in NCAA history that THREE ranked rematches have occurred in the same season (Virginia Tech-Clemson and Wisconsin-Michigan State met in conference title games the fi rst week in December). However, no two teams in the entire country appear to be as evenly matched as these.

The six common opponents the two squads faced this season have produced eerily common game numbers.
Are you ready?

Alabama was 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS, outscoring the opponents 231-58 while laying 112.5 points and winning the stats a total of 264 yards. LSU was 6-0SU and ATS, outscoring foes 226-54 while laying 97.5 points and winning the stats 200 yards overall. Amazing, huh? One look at the O/U total of just 40 points and you know immediately this confrontation is all about defense.
The Tide roll in with the top-ranked scoring defense in the land, just 9 PPG, while holding all 11 FBS foes to 14 or fewer points this season? but LSU is right there in 2nd spot, yielding only 11 PPG. Alabama?s defense also held seven foes to season-low yards in 2011, the nation?s best? compared to LSU?s fi ve. When the Crimson Tide take the fi eld in a bowl where the opponent is off a SU and ATS win, the boys from Bama have emerged 9-2 SU and ATS. But the Bayou Bengals are an explosive 8-0 SU and ATS versus fellow bowlers this season, and went 7-0 (6-1 ATS) against the SEC East for the fi rst time in school history. Bama coach Nick Saban is murder when
playing with conference revenge, going 15-3 SU and 14-4 ATS? but The Mad Hatter is 5-1 SU and ATS in LSU bowl games, including a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in BCS bowls. In addition, the Tigers beat eight ranked teams this year ? three that were ranked in the Top 3. Folks, we could go on like this all day and change every stat to bold type? but that wouldn?t change our opinion about how close this one?s going to be. Currently sitting at pick?em, this is one of the toughest calls we?ve had to make in recent memory.
But unless the mid-December version of Tim Tebow is behind center for the Tigers tonight, we can?t see Saban losing twice to the same team in the same season, especially with his second crystal trophy at Alabama up for grabs. In a matchup that would make the legendary Lombardi envious,

Alabama turns up the intensity ? and turns back the Tigers.

 

[Senor Capper]

ESPN INSIDER
Allstate BCS National Championship Game: Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers, Jan. 9
Alabama is favored by 1 point


Year 5 of Nick Saban's recruiting and player development machine has produced the best defense the sport has seen in decades. Nothing less should have been expected, since eight starters returned from a young defense that was a top-five unit last year. The Tide D finished 2011 first in the nation in total defense, scoring defense, yards per play, pass efficiency defense and a host of other statistical categories. With a stop unit like that, one of the nation's best offensive lines and an All-American tailback, it's easy to see why the typical Alabama game plan has been to wear the opposition down with a game-long pounding at the hands of Trent Richardson and Eddie Lacy.

That standard formula would have been effective against a fast but smallish LSU front seven in the November meeting with the Tigers. But you can't reap the fourth-quarter benefits of pounding the ball all game if you forget to pound the ball all game, and in the first meeting Alabama called 31 pass plays to 29 rushing plays even though the Crimson Tide never trailed. Then, just as Richardson was finally starting to gash the LSU defense, Nick Saban broke out his tried-and-true big-game tactic: the ill-timed trick play. The resulting turnover was expensive, as that and other coaching gaffes cost Alabama a game its once-in-a-generation defense was ready to win.

Alabama came into the game with nearly every advantage, but inexplicably Saban and the Crimson Tide coaching staff seemed determined to place the game in the hands of their only bad matchups: the LSU special teams and secondary. Those were the only edges LSU had in the first meeting, and they're the only edges LSU has in the rematch. Except, of course, the one that won the Tigers the game in Tuscaloosa, which is the fact that Les Miles is demonstrably superior to Saban in big games, the postseason, with extra time to prepare and quite probably just in general.

LSU is an outstanding team, but Bama is even better, with advantages on defense, at the line of scrimmage and in the running game. Saban had the better team in November, and he'll have the better team in January. Yet he lost then, and now LSU is in the unenviable spot of having to prove something it already proved. It's tough to beat a team twice under these circumstances, and if Saban shows up in New Orleans with a better plan than he had in November, the Tide won't squander its second chance.

The pick: Alabama 17, LSU 3 _________________________​

 

[Senor Capper]

In another year Alabama?s profile likely wouldn?t be strong enough to get into this game but every other team failed when given the opportunity to emerge as the #2 team. The rematch of the brutal 9-6 game is in order despite many objections but anyone who has watched much of the season can see that these are the two most talented teams. Both teams have incredible defenses and while QB play can be a little lacking, a powerful running game is leading the way. Statistically Alabama is the superior team on both sides of the ball but special teams seems to be a big edge for LSU and the Tigers played a superior non-conference schedule.
Alabama looked like the better team in the first meeting with missed kicks proving costly and the Crimson Tide will have had extra time to prepare for this game while also being fueled by a lot of sentiment that they are not deserving of being in this game. This is obviously a very favorable venue for LSU and the indoor track likely suits the speed for the Tigers well but the underdog has fared well in the history of the BCS championship game. This will be a rare championship game where the QBs are not really the focus but A.J. McCarron has outperformed Jordan Jefferson through the air, though Jefferson?s mobility makes him a very tough match-up. LSU has wins over nine bowl eligible teams including three BCS bowl participants as the Tigers have possibly the strongest resume ever under the current format but they have been a slow starter in several recent games and they won?t find the quick scores that they live on in this match-up.

This is uncharted territory with a rematch title game and a title game between same conference
teams so there is little to go by but the revenge situation looks favorable and Alabama should fix the errors from the first meeting.

ALABAMA BY 3
Alabama (-1) over Lsu
?OVER 39?? Alabama vs. Lsu

 

[Senor Capper]

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
*LSU 20 Alabama 14

?Game of the Century:
? It is the first time in the 13-year history of the BCS that two teams from the same conference will play for the title. And there is lots of familiarity between the nation?s top two defensive squads, squaring off for 5th time in the past 4 years. LSU, which overcame plenty of off-field turmoil in 2011, dominated everyone but Bama this season, winning its other 12 games by DDs, and going 10-3vs. spread. Note that the only teams to score two or more offensive TDs vs. the suffocating Tiger defense (10.5 ppg) were Oregon and West Virginia, which combined to attempt 119 passes! LSU needed to overcome early DD deficits in its last two contests, versus Arkansas and Georgia (the SEC title game), dominating those BCS bowl teams 45-3 after intermission! The Tide, which barely nosed out Oklahoma State in the BCS standings to earn a deserved rematch, won 11 games by DDs.Sure, proud, tradition-rich Alabama is in REVENGE mode (a number of players have expressed such feelings in recent ESPN segments) after thepainful 9-6 OT loss in Tuscaloosa Nov. 6. A quick review. The Crimson Tide outgained the Tigers 295-239, but missed 4 FGs (one blocked), although not exactly chip shots (from 44, 49, 50 and 52 yards). LSU QB Jarrett Lee, who had performed efficiently as the starter in 2011 up to that game, was replaced by former No. 1 QB Jordan Jefferson (who served 4-game season-opening suspension for bar brawl) after Lee threw his second ?pick? in the game (and his seventh career int. vs. the Tide). The battle-tested Jefferson stepped in and effectively ran some zone-option, and he hit enough timely passes to pull out the OT victory. In fact, Jefferson has been solid in all three of his appearances vs.Nick Saban?s sophisticated, smothering Tide defense (only 8.8 ppg this season), anchored by NFL-ready LB Dont?a Hightower & SS Mark Barron, with Jefferson completing 65% (26 of 40) for 322 yds, 2 TDs and no interceptions. In TGS issue No. 10, we recommended underdog LSU in Tuscaloosa, and we see no compelling reason in the rematch to buck the Bayou Bengals (1-point underdog at our presstime), who?ll be fueled by unrelenting fan support in New Orleans? Superdome, just an hour?s drive east from campus down the meandering Misssissippi. Bama?s power ground attack, spearheaded by Heisman Trophy finalist RB Trent Richardson (1583 YR, 20 TDs), needs to find some early headway to allow QB A.J. McCarron to work play-action passes in the hope of stretching the fast, physical and deep LSU defense. That?s Mission Improbable. After all, Richardson has amassed only 144 yards in 30 carries with no TDs. vs. the Tiger stop unit directed by LSU defensive guru John Chavis. Bengal DT Michael Brockers explains,?Richardson refusesto go down. He can get yards after contact. But we?re good at getting all 11 hats to the ball and stopping him. Wherever he gets the ball, I feel like that?s thebiggest part of our defense.? LSU?s deep, hard-charging DL, featuring sackhappy6-5 DE Barkevious Mingo & 6-4 Sam Montgomery (combined 17 sacks) will apply pressure, while Bama?s good-but-not-great WRs will be hard-pressed to get separation vs. the Tigers? excellent, first-team A-A CBs Morris Claiborne (6 ints.) and Tyrann ?Honey Badger? Mathieu, who is a spectacular punt returner (No. 2 in the country going into New Year?s Day games; 2 TDs) and the ultimate ball-hawk, with 2 ints. & six forced fumbles (5 recovered). The Tigers? mobile sr. QB Jefferson (248 YR in 2011 despite missing four games), able to improvise and extend plays with his legs, owns a deeper and more explosive arsenal than his Bama counterpart. LSU had four RBs with 300+ YR, and the fluid WR trio of Rueben Randle (50 catches, 8 TDs), hotshot frosh Odell Beckham, Jr. (34 & 2) and Russell Sheppard (13 & 3) are capable of more vertical plays than Crimson Tide wideouts Marquis Maze & Darius Hanks (only two combined TDC TY), who totaled only 99 yards in the regular-season battle. Moreover, in another anticipated physical slugfest where field position is paramount, a key STs edge goes to the Bengals, with accurate PK Drew Alleman (16 of 18 FGs) and strong-legged Aussie P Brad Wing (44-yard avg.), with the latter playing a key role with his stratospheric punts in the first clash. Plus, Tiger coverage teams have allowed a total of only six yards on punt returns all season! Sure, we expect the shrewd Nick Saban (only 6-6 SU in bowls), who is shooting for his second BCS title in the last three years, to have a few tricks up his sleeve with more than a month to get ready. But LSU mentor Les ?The Mad Hatter? Miles (the AP coach of the year is 3-2 in meetings vs. Saban; 5-1 vs. the number in bowls at LSU) has been absolutely masterful with extra prep time, going 18-3 SU with more than a week to prime since 2005. Says Miles, ?This isa team that loves the big stage, and they practice extremely hard.? So, look forthe highly-opportunistic, mistake-free Tigers (nation-best +22 in TO margin; 30 takeaways, only 8 giveaways) whose overall speed advantage figures to be accentuated on the fast indoor track?to capture their third BCS title since 2003.

 

[baby johnson]

looks like LSU for me

 

[Senor Capper]

Yah I say at least 80% of Newsletter & "Professional Cappers" are on Alabama

( that Ive seen). and I seen plenty. LOL