The Bottom Line

DOGS THAT BARK

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Forum Member
Jul 13, 1999
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Bowling Green Ky
Below are charts (from article @ Bworld in 1998) that will give you bottom line on ratios of returns per cost of service. Do the math per/your typical wager and cost of service.
Being a peanut punter myself with standard $50 wager it is no brainer for me,however if one really fires at em the ratio of winning% drops drastically. I personally pay $239 a year for consensus service that includes both foots and hoops.Out of 50 plus services I only look @ 4 in foots and 1 in hoops.These few I have tracked for years and have been successful for most part and the modest yearly fee breaks down to bout $5 a week.From my standpoint to pay for info or whatever is a personal choice that has to be looked at by each to see if there is indeed value in the exchange. While I will always be a modest bettor I will say this.If I was forced to wager for a living it would not be on the big 3 foots,hoops and bases.It would be primarily on individual sports such as tennis,golf,racing ect. Have seen no one beat the big 3 every season but have seen several in minority sports where it is not a question of (if) but to what extent.:)

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Services:

When looking into subscribing to a service you need to consider the cost of the service, plus the capital requirements and the winning percentage necessary for you to make a profit. The following charts should help in this regard. We in no way recommend paying a lot of money for a service and then playing a lot in order to make a profit. Everyone needs to establish a bankroll of cash that they are comfortable with potentially losing. This needs to be purely ?excess? capital.

The first chart indicates the winning percentage needed just to BREAK-EVEN for services charging various monthly amounts with varying numbers of plays for $50, $100 & $250 players. NOTE: The ?high rollers? need a much lower winning percentage because they risk more on each game. The best investment is a little of your own time, because ?FREE? requires the absolute lowest winning percentage to break-even.


$/BET
FREE
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500

6 plays/wk
$50
52.4%
56.3%
60.3%
64.3%
68.3%
72.2%

6 plays/wk
$100
52.4%
54.4%
56.3%
58.3%
60.3%
62.3%

6 plays/wk
$250
52.4%
53.2%
54.0%
54.8%
55.6%
56.3%

8 plays/wk
$50
52.4%
55.4%
58.3%
61.3%
64.3%
67.3%

8 plays/wk
$100
52.4%
53.9%
55.4%
56.8%
58.3%
59.8%

8 plays/wk
$250
52.4%
53.0%
53.4%
54.2%
54.8%
55.4%

10 plays/wk
$50
52.4%
54.8%
57.1%
59.5%
61.9%
64.3%

10 plays/wk
$100
52.4%
53.6%
54.8%
56.0%
57.1%
58.3%

10 plays/wk
$250
52.4%
52.9%
53.3%
53.8%
54.3%
54.8%

12 plays/wk
$50
52.4%
54.4%
56.3%
58.3%
60.3%
62.3%

12 plays/wk
$100
52.4%
53.4%
54.4%
55.4%
56.3%
57.3%

12 plays/wk
$250
52.4%
52.8%
53.2%
53.6%
54.0%
54.4%


If you?d like to make $100 profit per month move one column to the right to see the winning percentage required. Thus, if a service charges $400 per month and gives out 8 plays per week, in order for a $100 player to make a $100 profit the service would need to pick 59.8%. For this same service to make a $100 profit for a $50 player, the service would need to win 67.3% of their plays.

Since most legitimate services win between 55% and 60% of their games, it is almost impossible for a small player to make a profit if the cost of the service is over $200 per month.

Another way to look at this, is the amount of money one needs in his/her bankroll. Since you shouldn?t play more than 2% or 3% on any one game, only 20% to 30% of your bankroll should be wagered in any one week. This number should be slightly higher when you?re winning and slightly lower when you?re losing.

Below is a chart which shows the amount of money one must wager EACH WEEK in order to BREAK-EVEN given a services? monthly fee and overall winning percentage. This hold true regardless of how much you play on each game. Once again, if your goal is to make a profit, move over one column to the right for each $100 per month gain.


$100
$200
$300
$400
$500

54%
$735
$1470
$2205
$2941
$3676

56%
$329
$658
$987
$1316
$1645

58%
$212
$424
$636
$848
$1059

60%
$156
$312
$469
$625
$781

62%
$124
$248
$371
$495
$619

65%
$94
$189
$283
$378
$472


Thus, if a service charges $400 per month and picks an excellent 62%, you would need to wager $495 each week to break even. You would also need to have a bankroll of at least $1500. In order to make a $100 profit you would need to risk $619 each week. For a $50 player, this means wagering on 10 to 13 games each weekend. Many services with such high winning percentages lay out a small number of plays. If this is the case, a small player cannot profit.
 
Last edited:

djv

Registered User
Forum Member
Nov 4, 2000
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This is good stuff. It is also why in another thread I asked. Since the average bet is 77 bucks. That came from gambling times 1999. Maybe it's 88 now. Would it not make sence for someone going into this business to charge only 100 a month? Believe your info answers that as a Yes. However if your goal is to just get 25 to 50 high stake players to buy your service. The answer changes. The bottom line of still picking more winners then loosers on a steady bases of course does not. The other way is 4 folks to get together and share the price at 50 bucks each. A site such as this sharing free info with each other is still the best.
 
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