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DOGS THAT BARK

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Got a few dropped @ St James I fancy Kane-Kung and Teske

L.Kane V D.Delasin Kane, Lorie -111

S.Gustafson V C.Kung Kung, Candie +100

M.Wie V R.Teske Teske, Rachel +100
 

Stanley

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Outright plays (1.5pts):

Cristie Kerr to win 40/1 e.w. @ Bet365
Kerr has continued her form of late 2003 into this season with a second place finish to Annika last week. It confirms her as the leading American player on the Tour at the moment and while she does not win too many events - her last victory was in 2002 - she ahs finished no worse than 7th in five of her last seven events. With finishes of 11th and 3rd in the last two years here, she could still be a very profitable place winner.

Rachel Teske to win 50/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Similar story with Teske. She has finished no worse than 8th in seven of her last nine starts and that consistency will produce place wins if nothing else. At these odds, a top-5 finish would still produce a healthy profit. Her course form is not great, but she did finish 2nd in 2001 and has closed out events successfully on the LPGA Tour - she won back-to-back titles in June last year. This price is simply too large even with Annika Sorenstam in the field.

Rosie Jones to win 66/1 e.w. @ Stan James (w/o Sorenstam market)
Different angle with this play and with a market without the favourite. Jones is one of the most consistent players on the LPGA Tour - just one finish outside the top-15 in her last 13 starts of 2003, including one win, plus a further top-15 finish last week - but she made an important announcement via a press interview that was published on Sunday. Namely, that se was gay. She admitted during the Safeway International that she was nervous about "going public" with her sexual preference and although she had been open with close friends about her sexuality for the last 25 years, this must be a great weight lifted off her shoulders. She will now proudly be sponsored by a company that caters explicitly to lesbian travellers. On the back of this "coming out", I'd expect a strong performance from her this week, particularly as she has a very good record around this course.
 

lostinamerica

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Starting here.

Stan - I like that Rosie Jones bet, but 40/1 with Sorenstam at Bet365 isn't quite the same thing. Instead, I'll probably tag along with Cristie Kerr.


At the end of the 2002 season, I thought it ludicrous to contend that Annika was as dominant on the LPGA Tour as Tiger was on the PGA Tour. A lot of golf later, I think today it would be ludicrous to contend otherwise. Annika now stands about one victory (or two at the most) from laying claim to achieving a record of dominance on the level of Tiger's loftiest heights. An aura that matches the circumstances with Tiger Woods before Pebble Beach in 2000 is also easily discernible. The situation also easily calls to mind a quote by Nicklaus: "The grand slam was my goal at the start of every year. I always felt my year was over when I didn't win at Augusta." In her press conference, Annika candidly confessed that she hasn't entertained thoughts about how to regroup for the rest of the season if she comes up short this week. And there is a record at Rancho Mirage befitting the likes of Jack and Tiger at Augusta. . . . While a much sharper and well-rounded short game that was on display was the immediate consequence I noticed after Colonial, the transformation that is playing itself out has been a lot more substantial than that. Annika is delivering her best on cue, and is extremely comfortable under the microscope. And with Annika's expressions regarding other priorities like starting a family, I can even toss in an element of Bobby Jones, as a spectacular run over a couple of years may leave her with a feeling of having no more worlds to conquer . . . I like it when someone says what I've been thinking, only says it better. Laura Davies has been known to place a few wagers of her own, and this is how she sees it: "I certainly don't think Annika will finish outside the top two. It's whether someone can have the week to beat her."

In case you can't tell, I'm also kind of liking a potential wager on Annika and the Grand Slam, and although I haven't seen any lines on the proposition, I'll note the point recently explored in the NCAA Basketball forum, and made last year by Stanley about a Grand Slam quest by Woods. As Stan put it last year, "for a serious bet I would lay the sum on the (first major) alone and then carry the winnings onto the (next major) with a small hedge bet and so on." I played with the numbers, and assuming future odds of +120, +115 and +100, I calculated a rather modest return of about +1900. The option of reevaluating the proposition in future months and deciding to pull some of the funds off the table also seems a superior strategy to the alternative for hedging a conventional or immediate futures wager, which aims to buy a losing wager (at yet to be determined future odds) and be guaranteed of giving back some of the potential final winnings. Anywho, consider me on board with a "parlay" on Annika and the Grand Slam.

****************************************

So, these are my wagers:

(A) Annika Sorenstam(+120) To Win Only for 2.0* @ Bet365
- That's the "official" bet, with the intention of "letting it ride" on the McDonald's LPGA in June if it's a winner.

And some "unofficial" stuff:

(B) I started a $200.00 "Best Bet Fund" in the General Forum in a quest for $1000.00, and it now stands at a balance of $263.00.
http://www.madjacksports.com/forum/showthread.php?threadid=129832 Any future golf bets with those funds will be mentioned in advance and tracked by me in my posts in this forum, and Best Bet No. 5 with those funds is Sorenstam(+120) To Win Only ($30.00 To Win $36.00).

(C) Pretty much without exception, after making my usual outright plays for my usual stakes in the PGA and European events, I'm going to "power up" the Win Only portion of ALL those bets by combining them in a $2 parlay with Annika. For instance, my plays this week will include Corey Pavin(150/1) as Top American (1/4 for Top 4) @ Bet365, and I have added a parlay wager at Bet365 that features Pavin(150/1) to Win Only that same specialty market wager along with Sorenstam(+120), for $2 To Win $662, or odds of 331/1.

I like Annika here.

GL
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Heather Bowie to beat Dorothy Delasin -123 @ Five Dimes [3pts]
Opposing Delasin who may have good course form - three top-15 finishes in the last three years - but is struggling with her game, particularly with accuracy off the tee and so is struggling to hit the greens. Her finishes of 50th and 63rd are no match for Bowie's top-20 finishes in the two Tour events this year.

Lorie Kane to beat Dorothy Delasin -111 @ Stan James [4.5pts]
Did consider Kane for the outrights until I saw the odds for Jones. Se finished in the top-10 here two years ago and apart from a rusty opening event of 2004, she has finished in the top-20 in her last nine starts. Glad to side with her several times in the matchups and there should be no comparison with the struggling Delasin.

Lorie Kane to beat Laura Diaz -110 @ SkyBet [3pts]
Expecting a rusty performance from Diaz who will be making her first competitive start in five months this week. She has good form at Mission Hills, but has had far from ideal preparation.

Lorie Kane to beat Karen Stupples +100 @ Five Dimes [3pts]
In contrast, Stupples has had a very active and profitable start to 2004. She won the opening event on the LPGA Tour having already finished 2nd in the Australian Ladies Masters. But there were signs of fatigue at the weekend as she slipped to 39th in the Safeway International and if she is not at her best, then she is simply not in the same league as Kane. The Canadian holds a 12-7-1 h2h lead in LPGA Tour events over the past year and should not be the underdog.

Rosie Jones to beat Karen Stupples -114 @ Centrebet [3pts]
Jones' h2h record against Stupples is 11-3-2 over the same period, so just a much reason to side with the outright selection against Stupples.
(also available at NordicBet)

Beth Daniel to beat Candie Kung +103 @ Five Dimes [3pts]
I don't see Daniel as the underdog in this matchup. Kung's finishes of 22nd and 30th this season are not particularly impressive, while se has played in this event twice and failed to break par in any round (two of six rounds have been in the 80s). Daniel got rid of some competitive cobwebs last week and will be much better prepared to match her top-5 finish of last year.

Cristie Kerr to beat Laura Davies -110 @ SkyBet [3pts]
No doubting Davies' form - four top-10 finishes in four starts this year, including one win - but the ideal preparation for a major never involves competing in all four weeks prior to the event and across two different continents. I'm just expecting a very strong performance from Kerr and, as last year, Davies' strong early season form to slowly peter out.
(also available at NordicBet)

Grace Park to beat Karrie Webb -125 @ Centrebet
Had this as a successful double-play last week, but only going in again as a single-play this week. Park's form on this course is ordinary and she should do little more than continue her run of top-10 finishes. It should still be enough against Webb, but their course history is definitely working against Park this week.
(also available at NordicBet)

Rachel Teske to beat Michelle Wie -125 @ Stan James [3pts]
Opposing Wie just once this week and doing so with one of the outright selections. The 14-year-old admitted to feeling very tired by the 4th round last week and it was no surprise with all the hype around her. Sorenstam will divert some of the media circus this week, but Wie does not help herself. Another top-20 finish may be in order, but little more. Teske looks far more likely to challenge Sorenstam this week and for some time to come.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Got a couple of oldies to place only both @ 5dimes @ 11/1
Daniels and Kane
These 2 collectively had 11 top 5's in 45 events (Daniels 7 in 20)
so maybe one of em due to slip in as experiece worth a tad in these majors.

Been waiting for them to change lines on Kane before posting as I doubt if they let initial offering stand.:)

03/25/04 F Kraft Nabisco Championship - Top 5 - Lorie Kane 110/1 $20.00 $2,200.00
 

Clive

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already started, but heaven knows what's happening....heads should be rolling at the LPGA..their site is a disgrace.

Interesting difference of opinion on Jones as I am dead against her this week...I'm no shrink, but imo the adrenalin of all the press stuff last week has been used up and will work against her this weekand I forecast a poor showing (for her that means outside top 20)...

I have always liked her as a player and have no probs with her sexuality, but golf may not have been uppermost on her mind in the last ten days, coupled with the fact that she is giving 20-30 yards to some, I think she'll struggle, but as I say, I'm not really qualified to comment, and in any case, my only PGA match-bet this week sided with Davis Love!

Mind you, pairing her with Karen Stupples is a bit of an insult!
 

Stanley

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Outrights - Final update: 1-2; -0.37pts

Kerr 5th
Teske 35th
Jones 7th

Small loss after Kerr had to settle for a share of 5th place and Jones finished just outside of the places. Very close to a good week, but having backed Grace Park for the last two weeks, it was a little ironic that it was this week that she won.

Matchups - Final update: 4-5-0; -7.94pts

Bowie/Delasin LOST by 8
Kane/Delasin TIED (Lost)
Kane/Diaz WON by 11
Kane/Stupples LOST by 7
Jones/Stupples WON by 2
Daniel/Kung LOST by 10
Kerr/Davies WON by 4
Park/Webb WON by 2
Teske/Wie LOST by 12

There looked like being a small profit on the matchups until Kane took a six on her final hole to fall back into a losing tie with Delasin. Disappointing ... but so were the other margins of loss.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights - 3-6; -3.22pts
Matchups - 12-7; +12.63pts
 
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