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DOGS THAT BARK

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Jul 13, 1999
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72 holes>ties lose
Pak -111 over Grace Park
Best Park ever finished after 1st is 26th--Pak 1-2 herein two years
MH Kim -120 over HW Han
Basically course form and Han appears still on Honeymoon.

To place top 5
MH Kim 6/1
JY Lee 9/1
 

Stanley

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Jul 26, 1999
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Outright plays (1.5pts):

Karrie Webb to win 22/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Quite an outlier in terms of price as Webb is generally available at 14-16/1. Coming off a top-three finish in the Nabisco Championship, her form appears to be slowly returning and she did have a top-20 finish when she played in this event two years ago. A good price for a player who can, and has, won in this company.

Lorena Ochoa to win 40/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
Another price rick. Ochoa would be a marginal selection at the best alternative price of 28/1 with SkyBet, but at 40/1 with no loss of places, there is definite value. True, she did finish a lowly 64th on her debut last year on this course, but she had been 3rd after the opening round only to fade badly over the weekend. That may have been the result of tiredness as she had been in the top-6 throughout the Nabisco Championship the previous week, but this time her top-10 finish was the result of a closing 67 having not been in contention since the first round. She should be as mentally drained from the first major of the year and having finished 3rd the previous week, she has the form to mount a serious challenge for this title.

Rosie Jones to win 50/1 e.w. @ Stan James
Jones looked like she could finish in the top-5, but slipped back in the final round to finish two shots out of the places. It meant that she maintained her extremely high ratio of top-15 finishes to starts and with a top-20 finish on her sole appearance here (2002), she should certainly add another high finish this week. Only four places on offer at this price, but with a renewed drive in her life, she could soon be adding another victory to her resume.

Michele Redman to win 80/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Adding a fourth play as these odds are much too high. Redman is a difficult player to predict, but if history does repeat itself, then Redman looks a decent shot for a top-5 finish this week. In the Safeway International two weeks ago, Redman finished 8th, having finished 9th last year. In the Nabisco Championship last week, she finished 22nd, having finished 21st last year. And as for this week's event, she finished 5th last year. She also had a top-20 finish in 2002 as well. So with good course form and finishes of 14th, 8th and 22nd in her three starts this year, she looks a much better prospect to secure at least a top-5 finish than SkyBet give her credit.
 

Stanley

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Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Beth Daniel to beat Laura Diaz -122 @ Five Dimes [3pts]
Opposing Diaz again this week after she opened her 2004 campaign with rounds of 81 and 76 to miss the cut by some distance. She also missed the cut last year, so this looks a little early for her to rediscover her form. Daniel has been steady so far in 2004, but can still improve a great deal.

Beth Daniel to beat Dottie Pepper -110 @ SkyBet [3pts]
Daniel has finished slightly behind Pepper in their two common events this year, but still believe that Daniel will improve as she the Tour gets into full swing, whereas this is as good as it has got for Pepper since she returned to the Tour from a 16-month injury layoff. As a result, she has not played when this course has hosted this event over the past two years and with Daniel having top-20 finishes in both years, she should do enough to win this matchup.

Rosie Jones to beat Carin Koch -167 @ NordicBet
Backing Jones to play well again and for the well-publicised reasons. She has also finished ahead of Koch in each of the two weeks and in 2002 when they both played in this event on this course. Jones finished in the top-20 while Koch missed the cut. Jones should at least repeat that performance.

Rosie Jones to beat Jung Yeon Lee -118 @ Expekt
Lee's form has been quite a revelation this year, but she has still not finished ahead of Jones in any of the last two weeks. And having been disqualified after a 1st round 74 in 2002 and missing the cut after shooting 77-77 in 2003, this looks to be a course that is not well-suited to Lee's game. She may struggle to keep up her excellent form.
 

DOGS THAT BARK

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Forum Member
Jul 13, 1999
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Bowling Green Ky

Stanley

Registered
Forum Member
Jul 26, 1999
11,801
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Manchester, England
www.tour-tips.com
Outrights - Final update: 0-4; -6.00pts

Webb mc
Ochoa 8th
Jones 26th
Redman 8th

Exasperating to say the least! Jones had been 2nd with one round to play and maintaining a serious challenge for the title until she dropped seven shots in her last ten holes. Redman was set for an even more profitable top-5 place having been 4th with one round to play and stayed the place positions until she also folded on the last nine holes. Redman and Ochoa finished two shots out of the top-5.

Matchups - Final update: 4-0-0; +9.00pts

Daniel/Diaz WON by 3
Daniel/Pepper WON by 3
Jones/Koch WON by 2
Jones/Lee WON by 5

Nice sweep to ensure a profit on the event despite the frustrating blank on the outrights.

LPGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 3-10; -9.22pts
Matchups: 16-7; +21.63pts
 
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