The Bush>Wendys Classic

[DOGS THAT BARK]

couple early ones I can't see lines improving on @ Centrebet
to place (4 places)
Andrews 16.5/1
Soo Yun Kang 25/1

Here are a couple out of my usual ratio criteria but will go with this week field.

Andrews has only 1 top 10 in 13 events but finished 10th here last year and has run of current form at 12th and 7th last 2,however deciding factor is she is only competetive player in field the skipped overseas trip and should be fresh.

Kangs odds are unbelievable.Weak field and a player that has finished top 10 in 25% of her 16 tourneys.

Got a couple more I'm looking at but will see what ****** has in top 5.Really like Centrebets early lines but decernable difference between top 4 and top 5. However you can always back up player at another book later if odds warrent it as in PML last week. Really liked her and took a couple additional flyers on her at 5 places.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Selections

Event Date Event Selection Odds E/W Terms Result

1 31/07/2003 Weetabix LPGA British Open
(To Win Outright) Patricia Meunier-Lebouc
+2800 5 places 1/4 odds Placed

Unit Risk: 10.00 E/W Risk: 20.00 Returns: 80.00

Total Risk: 20.00 Total Returns: 80.00

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Bet ID : 248061

Event : Weetabix LPGA British Open
Date : 28 Jul 2003
Time : 14:00:26
Selection : Meunier Lebouc To Place 1,2,3,4,5
Lotto Numbers:

Bet Mode : Web
Price : 9.2500
Bet Amount : $5
Payout : $46.25

Regards

boylesports.com

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5 units):

Lorie Kane to win 16/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Siding with two in-form players who played well on this course last year. Kane recorded three top-3 finishes in her last seven starts in North America and then finished 9th and 19th in Europe in the last two weeks. It may be a long time since she won three times in the last ten events of 2000 (plus five other top-5 finishes), but she is still a regular contender. Since her last victory in February 2001 (Takefuji Classic), she has finished 2nd seven times, but there is no-one in this field that she cannot beat and should at least repeat her 4th place finish of last year.

Michele Redman to win 20/1 e.w. @ SkyBet
Redman also finished 4th last year and has also struggled to convert her winning chances in the past couple of years. She last won in September 2000 (Betsy King Classic), but has since finished in the top-10 in almost 40% of her starts. She last did so in the Evian Masters two weeks ago and in the Big Apple Classic (as a selection) the week before. This looks a good field against which to break her winless streak. SIA offer 25/1, but the extra place is more attractive with Redman.

 

[Clive]

It's a shame no firm offers prices to finish 6th, 7th or 8th...Redman would be a cert!

Big bet for me on Kung 66
Medium on Matthew 66 Marti 80
Small on Andrews 80 Kang100

 

[Stanley]

Would have added Kung and/or Kang instead of Redman had I got those odds, but just glad that Five Dimes did not wait until late Thursday night for once to post their LPGA top-5 lines.

Adding (1.5 units):

Donna Andrews to finish in the top-five 13/1 @ Five Dimes
Has not won an event since 1998 when she took the Longs Drugs Challenge title and was a runner-up four consecutive times, so a top-5 play seems the best ploy. She played well in her last two events to finish 12th in the U.S. Women's Open and 7th in the Canadian Women's Open (both times she had been higher placed after three rounds) and should be fresher than most this week as she did not make the trip across the Atlantic. This is a course that requires accuracy off the tee and she currently ranks 2nd on the LPGA Tour in that category as well as 2nd in greens in regulation. Together with a top-10 finish last year, it looks like she should have a good week this week.

 

[Trampled Underfoot]

Jumped on Kang @ 100-1 ew

GL All

 

[Clive]

Stan

Not sure about accuracy off the tee being that imp here. Certainly results from last year showed all the accurate hitters were to the fore, but beforehand, everybody was going on about how generous the fairways were and how that would be an advantage to the big hitters.

All the preview interviews made reference to that...now, I'm not sure why accurate hitters did so well... in general players thought this course was much easier than the previous one they used, but it actually played harder. Apparently the greens were v fast, which caused some problems and inflated scoring.

My take is that the hot weather evened out the advantage, and the Kims and Hans had no problems getting to the par 5s in two. I'm hoping that a little rain will turn the advantage back to bigger hitters, or at least even it out. If the requirement is for accuracy then my Paula Marti pick is dead already!

Will be interesting to seee what happens.

 

[Stanley]

I haven't seen any players interviews this week, but would be nice to see some before looking at the matchups later today.

You might be right about the rain as there are thunderstorms forecast during the event.

We won't know until we see the TV pictures next week - and I didn't make notes from last year - but from what I have read, this is a very undulating course so hitting 1/2 the fairway is important and as the greens are also very undulating, hitting a 100-yard wedge for your 3rd shot on par-fives is no great handicap. This course has the joint highest USGA rating (74.8) of any course used on the LPGA Tour this season (shared with Pumpkin Ridge), so it should be tough and the scoring wasn't particularly low last year.

BTW, I did see that Michele Redman won her section of the pro-am yesterday ... now she just to do it by herself

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Don't know if you saw this but may be of interest.
Little Song beat Wie by a stroke.
http://sports.yahoo.golfserv.com/gdc/news/article.asp?Source=YAHOO&id=16359

 

[Clive]

A couple of quotes from last year, inc Redman!


MICHELE REDMAN: Kind of. I mean, I hit a lot of wedges today. I hit a lot of wedges on the Back 9, probably on four or five holes. I am. But the greens -- I think the greens are really difficult to read. I think you really -- except for the putt on 4, like on 7 I knocked it 10 feet, and the putt just totally fooled me. It went more left than I thought.

You know, it's a new course. I think everybody is trying to get the idea of how it's playing, what the greens are doing. So I think that's probably some of it.

Q. Easier than you thought it would be coming in?

MICHELE REDMAN: Yeah, because you know what, I didn't play yesterday, then I played in the ProAm. I just think it's playing firmer. You're getting a lot more run in the fairway than you were two or three days ago. So it actually surprised me a little bit, too.

Q. A noticeable difference was the yardage. This is playing over 6500 yards, which is one of the longest courses on this tour. Doesn't seem so far that the distance is giving you guys much problem. Is that because of the roll you're getting?

TINA BARRETT: Yeah. I think, you know, when I played the practice round Tuesday, I thought, "This course is a bomber's course." By the ProAm on Thursday, I mean, you're getting like 20 yards of roll. If we get a storm again tonight, it will be a whole different story tomorrow. It will play a lot longer.

There's a couple longer holes, like 7 is kind of long. Couple holes maybe on the Back 9 are a little bit longer. But you can hit a lot of them, you catch a downslope, too. That makes it play shorter.

Q. If it does stay this way, we don't get the rain tonight, if it doesn't go back to being a bomber's course, do you think it's pretty much opens it up for a lot of players to win?

TINA BARRETT: Yeah, definitely. You know, obviously the fairways are very, very wide. First impression on Tuesday, when it was so wet, it was playing long. But, like I said, it's kind of changed. My caddie and I were talking. It's more of a second-shot course anyway with those greens.

 

[Stanley]

Cheers Clive.

Sounds like Redman had a dose of verbal constipation over that first question!

 

[Stanley]

No Donna Andrews on the draw sheet

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5 units unless stated):

Catriona Matthew to beat Brandie Burton -118 @ Expekt [3 units]
A 6-0-0 h2h lead over the past three months and a 15-1-0 h2h lead over the past year is enough to side with the Scot. She didn't play in this event last year, but Burton shot 76-75 to miss the cut anyway.

Lorie Kane to beat Laura Diaz -110 @ SkyBet
Siding with the outright selection over a player who did not play last year when this course was first used. Diaz has been very consistent lately, but is still struggling to be competitive - she has only top-10 finishes from 19 starts this year. Kane can count three, including two top-3 finishes in her last six starts.

Michele Redman to beat Wendy Ward -110 @ SkyBet
Ward had a good two weeks in Europe, but has been struggling in the U.S. where she had failed to finish ahead of Redman in her last four starts. She also finished behind her last year, so siding with the outright selection in this match.
(Also available at Expekt)

Soo-Yun Kang to beat Jenny Rosales +110 @ Five Dimes
Rosales had been playing very well before this event last year, but she still withdrew after opening with a 81. She is also playing in her 10th event in 11 weeks and that involves two trans-Atlantic crossings, so this looks the perfect week for a letdown. Kang has been playing well in the past three months and should not be an underdog in this match.

Candie Kung to beat Jenny Rosales -125 @ Expekt [3 units]
Kung has been playing even better than Kang - five top-12 finishes in her last seven starts - and also finished 7th last year. She should go close again this year and easily defeat Rosales along the way.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

With Andews being non runner will add a couple

Kerr to place @ 5 Dimes 7/1

Kung to Place @ Centrebet 10/1 (top 4)

Kung wager was placed early in week and odds no longer available but did want ya to think I was fudging on odds so heres ticket


Single Bets
STATUS Description Price Wager Payout Results
Accepted Wendy's Championship - Tournament - Win and Place (1,2,3,4) - KUNG, Candie Place 11.00 10.00 110.00

 

[Stanley]

Final update:

Matchups: 2-1-0; +2.85 units

Matthew/Burton WON by 7
Kane/Diaz WON by 9
Redman/Ward LOST by 2
Kang/Rosales VOID (Rosales dns)
Kung/Rosales VOID (Rosales dns)

Outrights: 1-1; +1.50 units

Kane 6th
Redman 3rd
Andrews dns

Profitable event, but could have been much more. As with the Nordic Open event this week, a matchup selection finishes 3rd and loses the match and an outright selection finishes one shot out of a place return. Still a profit though.

LPGA Tour ytd
Matchups: 35-20; +27.22 units
18-holes: 36-31; +5.31 units
Outrights: 9-39; -12.22 units

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Finals
Kung 5th
Kerr 24th
Kang 37th

week - 3units ytd +68.5 units

2nd week in row Centrebet gets off hook with selection finishing 5th and them paying top 4 costing total 18 + units profit as co-leader going into final rd falls out of top 4
Hope this is not an omen of things to come at this book.