The Championship

[Stanley]

Round 1 plays (4pts):

Tommy Fleetwood to beat Andy Sullivan -125 @ 5Dimes
Backing Fleetwood to continue the form that saw him run so close to victory last week - he finished 2nd, having got to within a shot of Levy with two holes to play. It has been a while since Laguna National was used on Tour, but a common feature when Nick Dougherty and Colin Montgomerie won the Singapore Masters here was that they ranked #1 in scrambling that week. With Fleetwood ranking #2 on the European Tour for scrambling, this is another reason to expect a good week from the Lancastrian.

Antonio Lascuna to beat Carlos Del Moral -120 @ 5Dimes
Lascuna does have an advantage over his opponent in that he played in the last Singapore Masters here at Laguna National, finishing 30th. He has also been in very good form, not missing a cut for over 13 months, whereas Del Moral has missed six of nine cuts in Asia including all three previous attempts in this event.

[unofficial rd1 system plays: Warren tb Moffat -130; Meesawat tb Randhawa -120; Jacquelin tb Karlberg -110]

 

[lostinamerica]

Outrights:

Kiradech Aphibarnrat(22/1) e.w.
Felipe Aguilar(80/1) e.w.
Robert-Jan Derksen(80/1) e.w.
Prayad Marksaeng(100/1) e.w.
Soren Kjeldsen(150/1) e.w.

GL

 

[Stanley]

Round 2 play (4pts);

Lee Slattery to beat Pariya Junhasavasdikul +100 @ 5Dimes
A good price to side with Slattery who has a good record in Asia, making his last seven cuts, including 32nd in the China Open last week and is currently in 48th place. He is alongside Junhasavasdikul who has missed the cut in the last three years of this event and has just one top-30 finish in 21 attempts in European Tour-sanctioned events.

 

[Stanley]

Round 3 plays (6pts unless stated):

Marc Warren to beat Brett Rumford +100 @ Bet365
Rumford has a great record in this event - five top-20 finishes in the last five years, including a win last year - but that was on a different course and in a different country, so it matters little this week. He has not had a full schedule over the last three months, but he has still been playing poorly, averaging 73.67 per round over that period. Today was only the third time in the last three months that he has broken 70, so I certainly oppose the defending champion in this form with a player who had been in much better form until last week's event in China.

Arnond Vongvanij to beat Rahil Gangjee -120 @ Stan James [4pts]
Two players in the top-10, but given that Gangjee currently ranks 110th in driving distance, 60th in driving accuracy and 98th in greens in regulation, it is clear that he is not playing as well as his leaderboard position suggest. Given he has played in 47 co-sanctioned events with the European Tour and his best finish is 10th, there is further evidence that he will struggle to stay in his current position.

[unofficial rd3 system plays: Hansen A tb Aguilar -133; Hansen A tb Derksen -125; Chowrasia tb Ruangkit -125]

 

[Stanley]

Round 4 plays (2pts):

Gregory Bourdy to beat Chris Wood -135 @ 5Dimes [also available @ Stan James]
Currently in 5th place, Bourdy is on course to record his sixth top-20 finish in his last seven starts so I don't see him faltering from his current position. Wood had missed his last three cuts prior to this event, so even though he is alongside Bourdy in 5th place, he looks much less likely to maintain his current form.

Gregory Bourdy to beat Anders Hansen -138 @ Paddy Power
In the five previous times that Hansen has held the 54-hole lead, he has won only once and that was back in 2002 (Volvo PGA Championship) when he had a five-shot lead. Add in the fact that he is playing in just his fourth event since returning from a six-month layoff for a wrist injury and he should suffer from contention rust as well. That should lead to a straightforward win for the consistent Bourdy.

[unofficial rd4 system plays: Jacquelin tb Lee C -110; Edfors tb Barr -125; Rumford tb Lee C -140]