The chances of Bush winning are slipping further and further

[Marra]

Uh-Oh Dumbya supporters

Hmmm. Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio has just finished a survey of 12 battleground states and finds Bush and Kerry tied with 47% of the vote apiece. But when he weights for minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Kerry is ahead 49.2%-45.7%. And when he further updates the weighting to take into account the most recent census results, Kerry is ahead 49.9%-44.7%.As Fabrizio blandly puts it, "It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President's campaign." More accurately, if Fabrizio is right ? that Kerry is ahead by 5% overall in the battleground states ? Kerry is a sure winner on November 2.

Suddenly the Bush campaign's obsession with challenging voters in minority neighborhoods makes a lot of sense, doesn't it? Their own internal polling is probably telling them the same thing that Fabrizio's poll says: unless they somehow manage to keep the minority vote down, they're doomed.

Yep, it's hitting the fan:

When the data is weighted to reflect minority turnout based on the 2000 exit polls, Sen. Kerry leads by 3.5% and if minority turnout is weighted to census levels Sen. Kerry?s lead expands to 5.2% ?It is clear that minority turnout is a wildcard in this race and represents a huge upside for Sen. Kerry and a considerable challenge for the President?s campaign. If one assumes minority turnout exceeds their 2000 election levels, then it appears a number of these states would tip to Sen. Kerry,? Fabrizio concluded.


*About the Poll
The telephone survey was conducted in the 12 battleground states in which the Bush and Kerry campaigns are focusing their visits and paid media efforts at this point. The sample of 800 likely Presidential voters was conducted on October 24-25, 2004 and has a margin of error of +/-3.46% at the 95% confidence interval. Respondent selection was at random within predetermined geographic units to reflect actual electoral vote allotment to each state. The battleground states used for the survey were CO, FL, IA,
ME, MI, MN, NH, NM, NV, OH, PA, WI.

 

[Clem D]

Yea the worm is turning

 

[danmurphy jr]

bush can do alot of damage between nov 3 and jan 20.

 

[Clem D]

True indeed

 

[Marra]

bush can do alot of damage between nov 3 and jan 20.

I am confident Kerry will win (and I think it's going ot be by a larger margin than most expect) but I am worried about Lame Duck Dumbya for 60 days.

 

[Nosigar]

You're stupid, dumb and ignorant. Geeeeeeeze. Get a grip. You moron... You don't deserve to live...................................... ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Ooops, sorry, doing my best liberal imitation. (oops, sorry again, I meant centrist, not liberal)

 

[CHARLESMANSON]

Marra I hate to burst your braindead bubble but the election is officially over.
GOT THAT??? :Yep:
Kerry is done with. I GUARANTEE IT!!!!
This weapons depot thing has blown up in his flip-flopping lying horse-face!!
Now evidence is out that Russia secretly moved Saddams weapons out of Iraq right before the invasion!!!

Kerry sealed his doom when he started accusing Bush of not securing those weapons. What an idiot!!! How's that foot taste John?? LMAO
They were gone before we even got there!!! :142lmao:

YOU THINK BUSH IS DONE?????
HAHAHAHA!!! Priceless!

:flush: :142smilie :Yep:

 

[hammer1]

Ya know Manson even if u werent a mass murderer u should have been incarcerated anyway as imbecilic or else done in like the Mafia has done fer generations........... put u thru a shredder and cast ur DNA over the nearest body of water. "Ya sleep with the fish"

 

[CHARLESMANSON]

Obviously there was no way you could debate my statement hammer. You have to resort on some weak attack on me. You are pathetic. You're just mad because I'm right!

Why were you so offended by my last statement? Give me logic, not bullshit.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

The worm is turning?? I think your reading to much liberal media.
and on topic of liberal media I thought this was quite interesting--
Kerry and the liberal media have dissed the economy but the "fact" sorry Mara prove interesting--

One Economy, Two Spins
Monday, October 25, 2004
By Herman Cain and Dan Gainor
Summer was proclaimed a time of "strong economic growth and low unemployment" by Jerry King of ABC's World News Tonight.

King was right. Declining unemployment, low inflation and landmark homeownership all point to great news for the economy. There's just one problem: King wasn't talking about this summer. That story aired on Aug. 4, 1996. But his comment could easily apply now because the economic conditions are nearly identical.

Business Week chief economist Michael J. Mandel made an excellent case that "today's economic environment looks positively rosy" in the magazine's Sept. 6 issue. Mandel argued that there are strong similarities between the summer of 1996 and 2004. Both had incumbent presidents running for election. Both saw declining unemployment, an increase in jobs, and strong economic growth. Some of the numbers are so similar it's eerie.

Yet the major media covered those two time periods as differently as night and day. During that time period, stories about job creation and unemployment under Clinton were positive 85 percent of the time--more than six times as often as they were for Bush. Reporters praised the Clinton unemployment rate of 5.6 percent as "low," but they ignored a 5.4 percent rate under George Bush.

---but to be fair there are those that think the conservative media is doing the same. From BBC in England

Wednesday, October 27, 2004

By David Asman



With news organizations like CBS and ABC churning out almost twice as many negative stories about Bush than John Kerry, you may think that our media is biased against the incumbent.

But the BBC (search) sees it exactly reversed. BBC World Service and Global News director Richard Sambrook was at Columbia University yesterday preaching to budding journalists about the U.S. media?s bias ?in favor? of George Bush and the war in Iraq. He scolded the U.S. media for "wrapping themselves in the flag" and not asking the tough questions about the Bush administration's reasons for going to war in Iraq.

oh by the way the BBC failed to mention----

"Headlining their coverage is an election special featuring ?Fahrenheit 9/11? director Michael Moore (search). Joining Mr. Moore will be former Clinton adviser Sidney Blumenthal, former Clinton secretary of State Madeleine Albright, and the militantly anti-Bush billionaire, George Soros (search).

 

[davidjg47]

I can assure you Bush will win in a land slide. The so called polls are to keep everyone excited about the elections. The Democrats already filed lawsuits in Florida and Ohio because they know they are doomed. They feel the only way they can win would be to challenge the elections as being unfair. Face it ALL MAJOR TV stations ABC,CBS,NBC are all behind Kerry and they know they can be a large part of helping Kerry with the poor and uneducated people. Thats the people they have to get for Kerry to have a chance. Whatever happens on election day the loser will shake hands and back the President but I can promise you the Democrats will cry unfair and cry like a baby.

 

[Eddie Haskell]

Thanks David. I can die now.

Who do you like between the jets and miami monday night.

Ed

 

[CHARLESMANSON]

EXCELLENT THREAD TOPIC MARRA!!! CAN WE KEEP THIS THREAD UP UNTIL THE ELECTION PLEASE??? lol


David--you are so right...............See now that Kerry is doomed liberals like Eddie try to change the subject by talking about the NFL!!
PRICELESS!!!!

:142lmao:

 

[ocelot]

Charlie is trying to convince himself that his boy is going to win - how pathetic. Can't wait to resurrect some of his lame-brained prognostications on Nov 3.