The Chiefs in Week 1?

[acehistr8]

Can someone talk some sense into me? My initial capping of this game was 30-17 Chiefs. This was before any of the lines came out for Week 1. Initially I got on KC at +4 and now at +3.

With the loss of Jamir Miller, the Browns look just as bad as they did last year. The upgraded to William Green at RB, but until he proves himself, he is just another rookie RB with a good college resume. A resume that also includes a plethora of off the field problems. Pundits are still looking to see Tim Couch break out of his shell, will he or wont he?

KC meanwhile, is pretty much the same 6-10 team they were last year. Priest Holmes won the rushing title and provided the threat that Trent Green definitely lacked - though he still ranked 8th at 236 ypg. At WR the Chiefs upgraded significantly from their core, adding Johnny Morton to the mix, as well as having brought Eddie Kennison on board in December. Kennison averaged almost 80 ypg over the final month with the Chiefs.

I dont know. Just looking for some thoughts and a possible sanity check.

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Phil:

I totally agree with you. In fact, KC is my sleeper pick to end up in the Super Bowl this season. They have all the components in place -- a head coach that's won the SB before, a strong promising QB with something to prove (Green was Warners backup with the Rams), the NFL's leading RB, good receivers (especially if T. Gonzalez returns) and a defense that suffered several injuries last season but comes back healthier and better in 2002. Very few bettors have been tuned in to how good this Chiefs team might be. In fact, the public will overreact towards the Browns in the first game. No doubt, the Browns were a gutsy team last season, but they reamin a plodding offense with few sparks at the skill positions. If the Browns win, they win it with defense, and Jamir Miller was a huge loss of this team. Getting a FG in the opener looks ot be a gift.

Only thing I don't like about the play on KC is, I greatly respect Browns head coach Butch Davis, who WILL have his team ready for this game.

Good thoughts,

Nolan

 

[ctownguy]

I'm really starting to believe that the public concept of jumping on a game has to be considered no matter how lopsided the game seems to be.

It has amazed me how over the past few years this public action has been wrong and if I had followed the opposite side just based on this one element how profitable it could have been???

After last nite, it further reinforces this concept, even though only preseason. :shrug:

 

[acehistr8]

(Please dont include preseason in any of your analysis vis a vis what is profitable and what isnt. In the regular season, TB kicks the FG with time running out instead of going for a 4th and 18 from @ the 25. They cover.)

Nolan, glad to see we are in agreement here. Rember, Dick Vermeil has a VERY proven track record and took a couple of years to turn things around not only in Phily but also St. Louis. I respect him as much as any coach in the league and he could really turn heads this year.

The Chiefs do have a tough schedule this year, either the toughest or in the top 3, depending on whose ratings you want to trust. Perhaps this is a fade a bit against their tough schedule. But against Cleveland? Again, they have a lot of pieces, but are they all going to fit together? Personally I followed William Green last year and to me this guy has Terry Glenn written all over him. Could be a star, could implode under the pressure. Too early to tell. And I guess thats what worries me, I feel it is too early to give the Browns a 3 pt favorite status at home.

The Chiefs will be markedly better this year IMHO. Guys I didnt mention that they added include Willie Roaf. While he is coming off maybe the worst year of his career, reports indicate he is fully rested. This is a 32 year old who has been to 7 Pro Bowls.

I dont know. I never EVER "bet the farm" or say things like "lock" or "5000 Star Play of the Century" but this play right now looks very good to me. Of course this depends on everyone being healthy in a month.

AND

***** For the following week, a tidbit to pass along. KC is 17-2-1 ATS last 20 years in their first home game. Chew on that one for a month or so, just something to keep in the back of your mind.


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Couple of comments from Vermeil this morning 8/13

Q: Interesting goal line battle down there, with three offensive touchdowns throwing the ball.

VERMEIL: "Today we put them through a whole football game. They were teasing me at the end, saying ?great game, great game.? But we covered all the situations that you see in a game and we?ll do that again this afternoon. We try to do that every day. I thought (QB) Trent (Green) was very, very sharp throwing in the Red Zone. You know, we spent a lot of time throwing the ball in the Red Zone, even in the off-season. It?s starting to pay off. The discipline and the precision in the passing game down there in a tighter area (are) starting to look pretty good."

Q: Can you contrast where you are today from a year ago?

VERMEIL: "Well, I think we?re much further along. But all coaches probably feel that way. I think we?re all so much more aware of our people, everyone?s so much more aware of the scheme. I just think that we execute everything we?re doing better and?there?s better definition in our coaching because our staff has worked together. In a way I think that showed a little bit offensively in the ballgame. All four quarterbacks operated efficiently. That?s hard to get out of a pre-season game. Now, we didn?t score many points, but still they were efficient."

Q: Do you feel comfortable where you are receiver-wise?

VERMEIL: "Yeah, I do. I feel very good about the receivers. The toughest part about the receiver corps is going to be who?s going to be number three, four and five because there?s a lot of competition for those spots. I think the number one and number two are pretty well defined. But I?m not sure that three, four and five (are settled yet). I know that the three is for specific situations in Dante (Hall), but I don?t know in other situations who the third guy might be. A long time ago it was (Marc) Boerigter. He was outstanding, but he hasn?t practice since his appendicitis. I?m sure he?ll come back and get going again soon but he?s missed a lot of work."