I posted this in Old School's Florida thread but I wanted it to have its own place. I hope everyone at MadJacks is doing well. I know many of you fall in the high risk bin for this Covid so I hope this post finds you and your family safe and well. There's just more to the picture than what the media is politicizing.
You keep posting articles screaming that cases are skyrocketing. My question to you is: What did you expect to happen when we reopened? We are in the middle of a pandemic. Of course, of course when we reopen there is going to be a resurgence of cases. What would your solution be? I guess what I don't understand here, is what the alternative is. I'm assuming you expect us to be locked down forever? Until.....a vaccine is made? Even though vaccines typically take 10-20 years to get right, you are holding out for the miracle vaccine that is has just as much chance as creating sickness than preventing it. So, what do you propose? I'm not going to do all of the homework for you but deaths from societal shutdown will be way more over time than the loss of life with COVID. That doesn't make death from COVID any less tragic. It's just a fact that's been borne out by data from multiple sources. So again, I ask you, what do you propose we do, stay shut down forever? This virus isn't going to just up and magically disappear some day.
You seem quite stuck on increases in the number of + tests. So my question to you is, is this the only statistic for the virus? In your mind is this the most important statistic? I only ask, because this is all you seem to be posting. See, for me, hospitalizations is one, but really deaths is the most important. You do know, there is more to just looking at the number of new + tests. For example- WHO is more likely to test positive out of the gates. Data shows it tends to be those 49 and under. The ones more likely to be congregating at bars, protests, parties. But....wait for it....they also are the ones least likely to die from this. So, shocker, despite cases "skyrocketing" in Florida, the hospitalizations and death rate average has remain unchanged. Don't you think that's an important qualification of the data? Now, I hate to break your brain with actual data, but let's look at the actual data. How are hospitalizations and deaths in Florida looking?
Perhaps the most important question of my post. Find me one country in this world that has just had infinite increases of cases. Where the chart just explodes, and goes on with forever increases. Spoiler alert, don't waste too much time, because it doesn't exist. Interestingly enough, when you look at charts of every country in the world, found here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
You will actually see the same graph for every country, at least the same shape. A bell curve. There will be a ramp up, there will be a peak, and there will be a bottoming out. So what variables are there? How quickly does it take to peak. You know what impacts this? How quick, or not quick, and how effective the shutdowns were. But don't take my word for it. Let's break our brains again and look at the data.
Let's look at countries/states that did a poor job shutting down. This isn't an opinion, that's fact. The ones that had 0-100mph outbreaks, the ones that dominated the news early in the Spring. Let's just throw out there Italy, Spain, New York, and New Jersey. Take a look at their graphs:
Hmm, what do we see here? All 4 countries had a rapid increase, a peak, and then bottoming out. Do you know in the countries on the Eastern side of the globe that got this first, this is the same graph/pattern that we see? I added the little red dots. It basically was to show that from the inflection point, ie, about the average peak, it took about 2 months to bottom out in all 4 places. Now this isn't me manipulating data to have an agenda, this is me just using the data out there combined with critical thinking to make observations. Wow, that's interesting. It reminds me of the Israeli mathematician who said back in April that the data shows the virus has about a 2 month life cycle and then slowly dies out.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-i...ts-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/
So what is my point in all of this? Every state has to experience the "surge", and get to the "peak", before they will see the drop. There is no other possible solution. So what impacts how long it takes to get to the peak? Well, the speed and effectiveness of the quarantine, of course. How quickly we forget, that the entire point of the quarantine was to slow and spread the curve to preserve hospital resources, not make it go away completely. So it's a fact, in every state that is experiencing increases, it's not possible to avoid them, and in fact, that HAVE to happen. They won't all follow that neat 2 month curve because the shut-downs dragged that out, but it remains to this ponit a fact...you have to get to the peak before you will get to the drop. Why this matters is multi-factorial, but we are also seeing that in places like NYC, the herd immunity may be reached much lower than normal because there is cross-protection from other covid viruses among other things. Basically, NY, NJ, Italy- they took it on the chin pretty hard, but they got over the hump much faster than places that slowed the curve.
Like California- Really good job shutting down. Look how much they slowed the virus. But it doesn't change the fact that they are going to have to reach the inflection point (Peak) before they come back down.
Listen, I don't pretend to have all of the answers. But I do actually take time to look at the data and generate original thought. The simple regurgitation of headlines about cases increases that are obviously being politicized as part of a bigger picture just isn't productive. Look, it doesn't make the deaths less sad. My family has lost close personal friends to this. Moving forward, the people that should stay quarantined are the high risk people. Low risk, under 50, need to get out and get living. The long term loss of life from the shutdown is way worse than was COVID will do. We have to get to the peak before this is going to get better. There is no way around this. I do think we have handled things well. I do think the original quarantines were worth it. We now have better treatment options to reduce death rates in severe cases. There is evidence that the virulence of the virus is decreasing as it mutates and time goes on. The R0 is much lower than originally thought. The infection fatality rate (IFR) is looking like it's 0.5% to 1%, much more in line with things like the seasonal flu https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2. I don't propose to be the expert, but I do want to provide another way of looking at this rather than doom and gloom. And the beauty is that this post will be borne out by October, so we will see if the peak to drop holds true or not.
You keep posting articles screaming that cases are skyrocketing. My question to you is: What did you expect to happen when we reopened? We are in the middle of a pandemic. Of course, of course when we reopen there is going to be a resurgence of cases. What would your solution be? I guess what I don't understand here, is what the alternative is. I'm assuming you expect us to be locked down forever? Until.....a vaccine is made? Even though vaccines typically take 10-20 years to get right, you are holding out for the miracle vaccine that is has just as much chance as creating sickness than preventing it. So, what do you propose? I'm not going to do all of the homework for you but deaths from societal shutdown will be way more over time than the loss of life with COVID. That doesn't make death from COVID any less tragic. It's just a fact that's been borne out by data from multiple sources. So again, I ask you, what do you propose we do, stay shut down forever? This virus isn't going to just up and magically disappear some day.
You seem quite stuck on increases in the number of + tests. So my question to you is, is this the only statistic for the virus? In your mind is this the most important statistic? I only ask, because this is all you seem to be posting. See, for me, hospitalizations is one, but really deaths is the most important. You do know, there is more to just looking at the number of new + tests. For example- WHO is more likely to test positive out of the gates. Data shows it tends to be those 49 and under. The ones more likely to be congregating at bars, protests, parties. But....wait for it....they also are the ones least likely to die from this. So, shocker, despite cases "skyrocketing" in Florida, the hospitalizations and death rate average has remain unchanged. Don't you think that's an important qualification of the data? Now, I hate to break your brain with actual data, but let's look at the actual data. How are hospitalizations and deaths in Florida looking?
Perhaps the most important question of my post. Find me one country in this world that has just had infinite increases of cases. Where the chart just explodes, and goes on with forever increases. Spoiler alert, don't waste too much time, because it doesn't exist. Interestingly enough, when you look at charts of every country in the world, found here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
You will actually see the same graph for every country, at least the same shape. A bell curve. There will be a ramp up, there will be a peak, and there will be a bottoming out. So what variables are there? How quickly does it take to peak. You know what impacts this? How quick, or not quick, and how effective the shutdowns were. But don't take my word for it. Let's break our brains again and look at the data.
Let's look at countries/states that did a poor job shutting down. This isn't an opinion, that's fact. The ones that had 0-100mph outbreaks, the ones that dominated the news early in the Spring. Let's just throw out there Italy, Spain, New York, and New Jersey. Take a look at their graphs:
Hmm, what do we see here? All 4 countries had a rapid increase, a peak, and then bottoming out. Do you know in the countries on the Eastern side of the globe that got this first, this is the same graph/pattern that we see? I added the little red dots. It basically was to show that from the inflection point, ie, about the average peak, it took about 2 months to bottom out in all 4 places. Now this isn't me manipulating data to have an agenda, this is me just using the data out there combined with critical thinking to make observations. Wow, that's interesting. It reminds me of the Israeli mathematician who said back in April that the data shows the virus has about a 2 month life cycle and then slowly dies out.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-i...ts-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/
So what is my point in all of this? Every state has to experience the "surge", and get to the "peak", before they will see the drop. There is no other possible solution. So what impacts how long it takes to get to the peak? Well, the speed and effectiveness of the quarantine, of course. How quickly we forget, that the entire point of the quarantine was to slow and spread the curve to preserve hospital resources, not make it go away completely. So it's a fact, in every state that is experiencing increases, it's not possible to avoid them, and in fact, that HAVE to happen. They won't all follow that neat 2 month curve because the shut-downs dragged that out, but it remains to this ponit a fact...you have to get to the peak before you will get to the drop. Why this matters is multi-factorial, but we are also seeing that in places like NYC, the herd immunity may be reached much lower than normal because there is cross-protection from other covid viruses among other things. Basically, NY, NJ, Italy- they took it on the chin pretty hard, but they got over the hump much faster than places that slowed the curve.
Like California- Really good job shutting down. Look how much they slowed the virus. But it doesn't change the fact that they are going to have to reach the inflection point (Peak) before they come back down.
Listen, I don't pretend to have all of the answers. But I do actually take time to look at the data and generate original thought. The simple regurgitation of headlines about cases increases that are obviously being politicized as part of a bigger picture just isn't productive. Look, it doesn't make the deaths less sad. My family has lost close personal friends to this. Moving forward, the people that should stay quarantined are the high risk people. Low risk, under 50, need to get out and get living. The long term loss of life from the shutdown is way worse than was COVID will do. We have to get to the peak before this is going to get better. There is no way around this. I do think we have handled things well. I do think the original quarantines were worth it. We now have better treatment options to reduce death rates in severe cases. There is evidence that the virulence of the virus is decreasing as it mutates and time goes on. The R0 is much lower than originally thought. The infection fatality rate (IFR) is looking like it's 0.5% to 1%, much more in line with things like the seasonal flu https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01738-2. I don't propose to be the expert, but I do want to provide another way of looking at this rather than doom and gloom. And the beauty is that this post will be borne out by October, so we will see if the peak to drop holds true or not.
