the day after Pedro

[Buck]

Gotta believe the Yanks are a solid play tonite against my Tribe. Yanks just faced Pedro and his nasty stuff and will now face Jaret Wright making only his second start on the year. In his first, he beat a weak hitting Anaheim team and looked average at best. He had to be pumped up for that start, as it was his first in sometime and in his hometown at that. I'm thinking Jaret lets down a little tonite, and with facing Pedro yesterday, the Yanks should be able to tee off. You know Justice would like to stick it to the Tribe.

While winless, El Duque has pitched better recently going 0-1 with a 3.27 era in 22 innings in his last three. Last year against the Tribe he was 1-1, 4.80 in 15 innings. Haven't been able to watch him this year and would appreciate any feedback on what anyone has witnessed.

May take a look at the over also, in case the Tribe does get to Hernandez.

 

[pipeville]

El Duque has really struggled this year. After missing the beginning of the season with shoulder problems, he hasn?t really trusted his stuff, especially his fastball. Once he gets ahead of hitters he?s been throwing a lot of curveballs away trying to get hitters to chase when his bread and butter used to be throwing the hard fastball that would ride in on hitters hands and tie them up. He spends a lot of time shaking his arm and rotating his shoulder between pitches and I don?t know if it's still physical or become a mental block. The Yanks claim he is physically fine and are desperately trying to get him a win. Two starts ago, Joe Torre left him in in the 8th inning of a tie game although he was up around 130 pitches just because he wanted to get him off the schneid. The Orioles Greg Myers smacked a 2-run HR off El Duque that game and the Yanks lost. Torre seemed like he was willing to risk the win to get Hernandez a victory because he knows how important he is to the team and his psyche is fragile right now. El Duque pitched much better against Seattle. He looked like he was throwing free and easy and painting the corners with 90 mph fastballs. It was the first time this year that he looked confident in his stuff. However, until he gets his first win under his belt, I?m not comfortable betting on him. In fact, I would consider taking the Tribe except for the fact that Wright walked about 6-7 guys on Saturday against Anaheim (I bet Cle and sweated out the 17 men LOB by the Angels). I bought into the Peter Gammons hype about Wright looking better than ever in the minors and pitching more and throwing less.
Hope this helps and good luck in whatever you decide to do.
Pipeville

 

[Goose]

I am heading down to the yard tonight and have been debating this one all day...

My original thought was with Duque and the Yanks. After all, the Yankees have owned the Tribe the past couple years and are one of the few teams to have a winning record in Jacobs Field.

Then after thinking about it some more (and really trying to keep the hometown bias out of it), I turned to the Tribe. Here's why:

True, this is only Jaret's 2nd start this year. Like Gammons said...he tore it up in the minors in his few starts before being recalled. Something like 6 hits and 14 K's over the last 16 innings. He was a bit erratic against the Angels in his first start...but I believe he was overly-jacked up. First start of the year and in his hometown. Now that he has that under his belt, he turns to the Yanks in which he has fared pretty well against over his career, including some dominating performances. With the velocity back, and a relatively rested arm, I see a strong game out of Wright tonight. That leaves us with Hernandez, who has been one of the real "money" pitchers the last couple years. So far, he has been shaky, going winless in 4 decisions. Although--he was decent in the last time out beating Seattle. Keep in mind Seattle's lineup---mediocre at best!! Several guys around the Mendoza line!!! He has also fared fairly well against Cleveland in the past. The key though is the lineup on both sides. While the Yankee lineup has remained virtually the same, the Tribe has brought in Gonzalez and Burks for a little extra pop. True, they replace Ramirez and Segui from last year...but these 2 give the Tribe another dimension in facing the Yankee staff. Gonzalea has always hit the Yanks well (especially with Texas) and in Burks, the Yanks have a guy they have not really faced before and don't have a "book" on. Too, bottom line--the Tribe is just swinging it alot better than New York is right now. Add to the fact that NY just beat Pedro AND travelled (let down??) while the Tribe has been at home waiting for this big series, the advantage swings to Cleveland. And IF, this becomes a slugfest, the Indians back of the bullpen is stronger with Shuey and Karsay than the Nelson-less Yanks. True Rivera is stronger than Wickman, but the innings leading up to the 9th should have this game decided already.

I am going with the underdog Tribe (+100)--with Wright's 1st home start and a sell-out crowd waiting for New York's only appearance this year.

 

[Buck]

Pipe, thanks. That was helpful. Also, you weren't alone in sweating out that win over Anaheim. Still leaning to the Yanks though.

A question for you number crunchers:

I'm curious as to a team's record the game after facing Pedro? Narrowing it down even more, the game after facing Pedro if the opposing team is not the Red Sox. Logic being the same as above, the next pitcher has to be "easier" to hit than Pedro, especially after just seeing him. Of course, the reverse could be true and the team could be wiped out from just facing Pedro. In any event, if someone could run this, I'd be interested in seeing the results.

 

[Buck]

Goose, I wrestled with that weak Yankees pen -save Rivera- while siding with the Yanks. Also, Seattle line-up might be average, but the Tribes has its holes currently as well. Namely, Thome, Cordero (with men on), free swinging Branyan and to a lesser extent Cabrera leading off.

Have fun at the game, I'll be there Sunday.

 

[Goose]

I would agree with that somewhat...

Thome got off to an absolutely horrid start and is climbing (slowly) to where he normally is this time of year. He is bound to see better pitches now that Burks and/or Cordova are behind him. The way those guys are swinging the bat, Thome is being pitched to more aggressively. Cordero is heating up as well, hitting 3 bombs over the past week or so after not having any in something like 200 at bats. I think he is up near .300... Branyan--good point!!

The Yankees are just striking me as an "older" club---not more experienced--just older. And, they are not nearly as deep as they have been in the past.

Not to trying to debate you partner, just offering a different viewpoint.

Good luck with your plays and enjot the game on Sunday!!!! I think it's Bartolo on Sunday..