The European Viewpoint

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hoss

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I thought you guys might be interested in what our main trade paper was saying over here- it might help you - it might not...:)

1st Aiden O'Briens view:


O'Brien welcomes wet and cold conditions at track


by William Hayler, PA Sport



AIDAN O?BRIEN welcomed the wet and cold weather as he made his first visit to Arlington racecourse on Thursday, scene of Saturday's Breeders' Cup.

But the Irish maestro, who arrived in the US late on Wednesday, warned that the effects of a long season could catch up with some of his powerful string.

O'Brien said that horses such as Rock of Gibraltar and Hawk Wing had turned in their coats and might now have done enough for the year.

But he did acknowledge that it was preferable to have boughtthem out to a venue where the weather is largely cold and unwelcoming rather than throwing them back into a warm environment.

O'Brien walked the turf course in company with Coolmore chief Demi O'Byrne and said: "It's good, fast ground but there is absolutely no jar.

"If it carries on raining it will be on the slow side of good this Saturday."

He explained the decision to run Rock of Gibraltar in the Breeders' Cup Mile on the turf rather than his alternative engagement in the Classic.

"He's run over a mile all season and we just thought it might be a little unfair after a long season to go into the total unknown with him," O'Brien said.

"He cruises well, he kicks well, he is an exceptional horse. His coat has turned so we are just hoping a bit.

"Both Rock of Gibraltar and Landseer are drawn wide and they will need a lot of luck but they are both very good horses - I wouldn't be that surprised if Landseer was to beat Rock of Gibraltar.

"I imagine they will both be dropped back and then whichever gets the luck will go close."

O'Brien then turned his attention to the other horses he is running at the meeting, reluctantly nominating High Chaparral as his leading fancy.

"The plan was always to give him a prep, then go for the Arc and then Breeders' Cup," O'Brien said.

"He was very sick and missed his prep and then he just wasn't quite sharp enough in the Arc.

"He had a good blow afterwards but he didn't lose much weight and he has sharpened up well in his work since.He has come forward mentally.

"Hawk Wing has done nothing wrong all year and never really got his fast ground. He will need to be at his best but we have always said that he will handle the dirt.

"He's a huge, big horse and if he's coming to the end, you'll have to forgive him for it. But there is every possibility that he and High Chaparral will stay in training next year.

"In the Juvenile, Mick had the choice and chose Tomahawk. But he is a team player and he knows that whatever wins the chances are he will be on it next time.

"He is the one that really should act on the dirt.

He is a lovely level mover and his pedigree is full of dirt horses. It is very much a question of how he took the Dewhurst.

"Van Nistelrooy has raced plenty to give him experience and he always shaped like he would stay this far. He likes to sit just behind the pace.

"Hold That Tiger won with Kieren Fallon on in France. I would imagine he will be dropped out and then Kieren will ride the race as he finds it.

"All of my horses have travelled well and seem very well. After they were sick in the middle of the season I thought we would have no horses here.

"But this is the Olympics of thoroughbred racing and I will be over the moon if we have just one winner."
 

hoss

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Watchmaker expecting big show from Europeans


by David Ashforth



AMERICANS used to be rude about the European dirt challenge. Thanks to Johannesburg?s ground-breaking win in last year?s Breeders? Cup Juvenile, and Giant?s Causeway?s and Sakhee?s near-miss efforts in the last two Classics, they aren?t rude any more.

It?s not just increased respect for the Europeans; this year a lot of Stateside pundits don?t think much of their own dirt horses. The Classic is the big one, and everyone agrees that there isn?t a star - no Tiznow, no Skip Away, no Cigar.

?Every year, the European contingent seems stronger in quality,? says Mike Watchmaker, the high profile Daily Racing Form handicapper.

?Whether it?s an improvement in the quality of European horses, or a decline in the North American horse, or the Europeans getting the shipping down pat, I don?t know, but I wouldn?t be surprised if Europeans didn?t win the Classic and Juvenile as well as the Turf, Filly & Mare Turf and Mile.

?I think Hawk Wing?s got a chance in the Classic. The field isn?t up to stuff this year. There are a lot of nice hitting horses but none with compelling credentials. They are not a particularly consistent bunch and not really, really good.

?Hold That Tiger could win the Juvenile. Sky Mesa (morning line favourite) is a very nice horse but his performance at Keeneland last time troubled me. The jockey rode him very hard for the final three eighths - needlessly so. It seems like Sky Mesa is becoming more of a clown with racing.

?After him the others have a lot of holes in them. Vindication (second favourite) could improve a lot but he has to. He hasn?t beaten anything or run fast yet.?

Watchmaker believes that Storm Flag Flying, hot favourite for the Juvenile Fillies, is ?the real deal,? but he is contemptuous of home turf horses. ?Rock Of Gibraltar ought to win the Mile and the Turf is a complete joke,? he says. ?We have nothing - zero. Even if you were looking for a North American horse to be in that race, you couldn?t come up with one. Our horses are truly dreadful. I think High Chaparral will win from Golan.?

If Watchmaker is right, the Europeans are in for another good one.
 

hoss

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Cumani pleased with Gossamer and overnight rain


by William Hayler, PA Sport



BRITISH-TRAINED trio Gossamer, Golan and Islington continued their build-ups to Saturday's Breeders' Cup meeting by working on the turf course at Arlington on Thursday.

All three looked in good shape with the Sir Michael Stoute-trained pair both looking on their toes, although there was none of the rail-breaking antics from Islington which marred her work on Wednesday morning.

Gossamer's trainer Luca Cumani was particularly pleased by the way in which the filly changed her legs when asked to quicken up by her regular work-rider.

Further rain overnight had also left Cumani in good spirits.

"I think she is going to love this ground and she did everything that I wanted her to this morning," he said.

"I know that over a mile and a quarterwe are going into unknown territory to some extent but this is an easy track and there is every indication that it won't be a problem.

"She took a couple of days to shake off her jetlag but she seems a lot happier now and I am getting more hopeful all the time."

Gossamer's big-race jockey Jamie Spencer arrived in Chicago on Wednesday night and made his visit to the stables on Thursday morning.

"She looked in really good shape," he said. "I am really looking forward to giving it our best shot."

Godolphin's Filly & Mare Turf contender Kazzia is due to arrive at the track later on Thursday after completing a workout at Belmont Park on Wednesday.

She had missed three days of work previously because of an abscess on her left front foot.
 
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Valuist

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Interesting stuff. O'Brien sounds a little guarded in his optimism. We've heard so much hype regarding Rock of Gibraltor; I did see videos of his last 2 races and it looked like the jockey strangled him until about 100 yards out and just let out a little notch and he exploded. He looks like the one to beat in the Mile but I'm not that sold on the other Europeans in the Mile. It also sounds like Islington and Banks Hill won't get the firm surfaces they want. Golden Apples is very sharp and has won over the Arlington course; I think she will take a lot of beating. Who do like better: Golan or High Chapparal?
 

hoss

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Golan for me!!:D I thought High Chapperal looked a bit one paced last time out + you always seem to need a good kick to win these races.

Rock of Gibralter is an incredible horse + absolutely bolted in last time up( a v.weak Group 1 race tho') - but you're right O'Brian seems even more cautious than usual about his chances. Remember that he almost certainly goes to stud after this race.
A great horse, but no value overseas + at a v.short price :shrug:
 
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