The Heritage

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1pt):

Paul Casey to win 20/1 e.w. @ Stan James
In contrast to the PGA Tour, this should resemble a victory lap where the European players receive their deserved plaudits and the momentum and adrenalin of last week is carried on into this one. None of the Ryder Cup players will want to be going home before the weekend after the camaraderie of the European team. So first up is Paul Casey who was playing as well as anyone before the Ryder Cup. Amazingly, he sacked his caddy just a few days before they were due to fly to Detroit, but he now has an old friend on the bag. It will probably has contributed to his indifferent form in the practice rounds and losing his place in the starting line-up for the first set of matches, but his fourball win with David Howell on Saturday cannot be overstressed in its importance for the match. Against Tiger he had nothing to lose and he been able to half-rise to the occasion he would have beaten the former World No.1. As a rookie who played a pivotal role in the Ryder Cup, his momentum and adrenalin coming into this event should be at an all-time high!

Colin Montgomerie to win 25/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Coral
Monty was no rookie last week, but he was pivotal at the start and at the end of the Ryder Cup. To partner Padraig Harrington and comprehensibly beat Woods & Mickelson in the very first match of the Ryder Cup was extremely important. And of course, it was fitting that he holed the winning putt. He is a second player whose adrenalin and momentum should propel him up the leaderboard this week. It does help that he played so well to finish in the top-3 on this course in 1999 and 2000, but this play is about post-Ryder Cup momentum and Monty is the perfect example of this. The week after the last three Ryder Cups that Europe has won, he has finished 3rd (1995), 2nd (1997) and 3rd (2002)!

Nick O'Hern to win 33/1 e.w. @ Bet365, Victor Chandler and Ladbrokes
A more standard play here. He has course experience from back in 1999 and 2000 when this course was used for the British Masters and he also had a good record around in the Marquess course at Woburn as well. Though it is mainly for his current form that he earns his selection. He started the season in great form and has certainly rediscovered it again since June. With six top-10 finishes in his last ten starts, he should not be 33/1.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1pt unless stated):

Bradley Dredge to beat Henrik Stenson -125 @ Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Would have sided with the Swede in July when he was in a hot streak, but that has now ended. Dredge finished ahead of Stenson in the last two events before the Ryder Cup by margins of nine shots and ten shots respectively. I'll gladly take that margin of victory again!

Retief Goosen to beat Padraig Harrington -120 @ Bet365 and William Hill
Adrenalin will be a major factor this week, but it should not be enough to stop Padraig Harrington finishing behind Retief Goosen. Pod played all five matches last week, twice against Tiger Woods, and he will surely be one of the most tired players on the team. But even if not, he would struggle to beat Goosen who worst finish in any since the Deutsche Bank ? SAP Open in May has been 11th. He has finished ahead of Harrington in each of their last five common events and will be much better prepared for concentrating on this event.
(available generally)

Nick O'Hern to beat Ian Poulter +108 @ Five Dimes [2pts]
What an overreaction by Five Dimes! Poulter was certainly a surprise winner in the singles match against Chris Riley last week, but the Ryder Cup was virtually over by the time their match got going and the player who, according to Sutton, would have hyperventilated if he had been made to wait any longer than the first morning to start playing, was sure to suffer a huge let-down after the performance of the team and the ending of the match early during his own round. Poulter was not playing particularly well and then add in the fact that O'Hern has finished ahead of Poulter in 10 of their last 12 common events and it should be the outright selection would is the strong favourite in this match.

 

[lal2000]

Outrights (? unit ew ? ? odds 1st 5 unless indicated)

J Moseley ? 200/1 @ William Hill
M A Martin ? 150/1 @ Tote
N O'Hern ? 28/1 @ UKBetting ? 2 Units - Thanks Stan
C Wittenberg ? 150/1 @ Paddy Power

Good Luck!

 

[lostinamerica]

OUTRIGHTS (e.w. @ 5dimes):

Nick O'Hern(28/1)
Richard Green (45/1)
Bradley Dredge(90/1)

GL

 

[Stanley]

Post-Rd2 outright play (1pt):

Henrik Stenson to win 10/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Victor Chandler [1/4 1-2-3-4]
Coming off two missed cuts he was unfancied at the start of the week, but he has been the best player on view so far. He finished 2nd in the Scandinavian Masters from a similar midway position last month so he doesn't suffer from leaderboard vertigo and he can always look to his prestigious win in the 2001 Volvo PGA Championship for confidence.


3rd round play (1pt):

Henrik Stenson to beat Patrik Sjoland +100 available generally
While Stenson has been very impressive from tee-to-green, Sjoland has not and has needed to rely on a hot putter to keep him on the leaderboard. And while Stenson finshed 2nd in the Scandinavian Masters from such a midway position last month, Sjoland has not been in such contention since the British Masters in May and then he shot 73 in the 3rd round.

 

[Stanley]

4th round plays (1pt): * from Stanley *

Nick O'Hern to beat Barry Lane -125 available generally
The outright selection has fallen a long way from his 1st round leadership. but still backing him to bounce back in this round as his all-round game has been solid and he has been playing so well for so long. Lane has not been playing well and there is little in his stats this week that suggests that he will mount a charge on Sunday.

Soren Hansen to beat Jose Manuel Lara +100 @ Stan James
With both players ten shots behind leader, these players are playing for pride. Might have been worth leaving this match along in those circumstances, but Hansen has an important stat in his favour. He has yet to be beaten by Lara in any 4th round score this season. So evens does look value in this case.

 

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +4.25pts

Casey dns
Montgomerie mc
O'Hern 9th
Stenson 1st

Good to get a win with Stenson with the first mid-point play of the season. Almost added to it with O'Hern reaching 3rd place on the leaderboard, but he fell back and would never have caught Stenson who ran away from the field in the final round.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-3-0; +0.66pts

Dredge/Stenson LOST by 12
Goosen/Harrington WON by 4
O'Hern/Poulter WON by 9
Stenson/Sjoland WON by 1
O'Hern/Lane LOST by 1
Hansen/Lara LOST by 1

Nice profit on the 72-hole matchups compromised by the 18-hole experiment. All three 18-hole plays decided by a single shot, but could easily have been very different.

European Tour ytd
Outrights: 19-50; +43.60pts
Matchups: 59-46; +12.49pts

 

[lostinamerica]

Nice call on Henrik Stenson, Stan. I ABSOLUTELY meant to make a play @ Bet365 (outright only, probably), but I didn't get back to my computer to close the deal until much later than I anticipated (after he was about -3 through 5 holes on his Saturday round). It's also funny how during the 20 minutes of Golf Channel coverage I saw on Thursday, the current state of Stenson's game was being touted by announcer Warren Humphreys while Stenson was in the process of 3 putting from close range, which only added to my intentions with regard to the play. And I knew my post was going to say something like, "Stan says Stenson has been the best player on view so far - I got to get me some of that." Shoot!

And since I'm posting - It was starting to seem like forever (maybe since DLIII at Pebble Beach?) since a player wasn't receiving the Kiss of Death if we both included him among our outright selections (I mean like usually a major also ran); and then we both hit Luke Donald, David Lynn and Stewart Cink in quick succession to thankfully knock that notion out of my head.

Oh, great web site and another great season, with some remaining opportunities to make it greater!

GL